Click HERE to register for the Serve +2 webinar on Wednesday Sep 17
G’day,
In 2013 I created my first online strategy course called The 25 Golden Rules of Singles Strategy. Rule number three is called Serve +1, which focuses on the connection between the serve and the first shot after the serve. It became a focus point from uncovering how many times Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer hit forehands as the first shot after the serve ( a lot).
So what exactly is Serve +2? Glad you asked…
There are three components you need to understand.
1: THE HALO EFFECT OF THE SERVE
The first serve is the “big hammer” that starts the point. Seconds serves are typically a 50-50 proposition for most players.
So, in general, how long does the halo effect of the serve last before the contest between the server and returner battle evenly in the point?
The answer is two shots. The server gets to play an aggressive serve, and they get to play more offensively on the following two shots, which are Serve +1 & Serve +2.
You can extrapolate that out to saying that there is no real benefit for the server to hit more than two shots after their serve. Their early advantage in the point has expires.
2: FIVE SHOT RALLIES
It’s important to understand that the server can only win odd numbered rallies, and the returner can only win even numbered rallies. Rally length is counted by the ball landing IN – not from hitting the strings.
Here’s an example.
- The server hits the ball in, the returner hits the ball in, and the server hits a winner. That’s a rally length of three.
- The server hits the ball in, the returner hits the ball in and the server commits an error. That’s a rally length of two. Only two balls landed in the court.
So let’s talk about a five shot rally. Only the server can win it. And there are two ways to do it.
- The server hits a winner on the fifth shot.
- The returner makes an error on the sixth shot = only five balls landed in the court.
How often do five-shot rallies happen in a match? Well, they are the third most popular way the server collects their points.
Below is a breakdown of 65 matches from 2023 from Carlos Alcaraz. You will see five-shot rallies rank third in volume for the Spaniard.
Five-shot rallies account for 14% of total serve points won for Alcaraz.
I have a general rule when prioritizing stats like this one. If the percentage is in double digits – such as 14% here – then it gets my immediate attention. So that applies for one, three and five shot rallies for the server.
3: THE BEST FIVE-SHOT PATTERNS
Tennis looks like a game of pinball. It’s not. It’s a game of repeatable patterns, and five-shot rallies have winning patterns of play that the best players in the world employ.
The server must hit three shots in the court for a five-shot rally. That’s a serve and two extra shots, which could be groundstrokes or finishing at the net with volleys and overheads.
In Webinar 71: Serve +2, you are going to see dozens of points from the elite men and women in the world running the best five-shot patterns. Can you copy and paste these patterns for your own game? You absolutely can! You will just do it at a lower speed than the pro’s.
SUMMARY
You will increase your chances of winning the point if your have a plan before it starts. We all have a general idea where we want this serve to go, but not so much the two shots that follow. Once you learn the statistics behind five-shot rallies, and see the best patterns of play, you will be ahead of the game with how you want to construct points when serving.
Click HERE to register for the Serve +1 Webinar on Wednesday September 17.
Best,
Craig
