Ripple’s XRP has surged nearly 10% over the past week, mirroring the broader market rally and reigniting optimism among traders.
On-chain data highlights growing institutional participation, while long-term holders (LTHs) continue to display confidence by reducing selloffs. However, despite the bullish momentum, technical signals suggest that the rally may be under threat, as a bearish divergence has surfaced.
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Institutions Bet on XRP as Long-Term Holders Pull Back From Selling
This month so far has been marked by an uptick in open interest in XRP futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Per Glassnode, this closed at a 10-day high of 384,500 XRP on Wednesday, confirming the steady surge in participation from larger market players.
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XRP Futures CME Open Interest. Source: Glassnode
The rise in an asset’s CME open interest is significant because it reflects growing institutional exposure, a trend often associated with deeper liquidity and stronger price discovery. Unlike retail-driven activity, institutional flows can provide more sustained market support, reducing volatility.
Therefore, this means XRP’s current rally is backed by long-term capital rather than short-term speculative interest.
Moreover, XRP’s on-chain Liveliness metrics have dipped, confirming the conviction of long-term holders. At press time, this metric, which tracks the movement of previously dormant tokens, sits at a 52-day low of 0.81, indicating a decline in distribution among XRP’s long-term holders (LTHs).
XRP Liveliness. Source: GlassnodeSponsored
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Liveliness measures the movement of long-held tokens by calculating the ratio of coin days destroyed to the total coin days accumulated. When this metric climbs, it means long-held coins are being moved or sold, indicating profit-taking by long-term holders.
On the other hand, when an asset’s Liveliness falls like this, its long-term holders are moving their tokens off exchanges and opting to hold.
XRP’s Bull Run Faces Resistance as Bearish Divergence Emerges
Interestingly, not all indicators align with the bullish narrative. Readings from the XRP/USD one-day show its Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) below the zero line and trending downward. This forms a bearish divergence with XRP’s rising price, suggesting weakening capital inflows.
The CMF indicator measures how money flows into and out of an asset. When it falls below zero during a price rally, it forms a bearish divergence with the price. This indicates that buy-side pressure in the market is weakening and may no longer be able to sustain the momentum.
This puts XRP at risk of losing strength and falling toward $2.69.
XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView
However, a return of retail accumulation, combined with the rising institutional interest and long-term holder resilience, could sustain a rally toward $3.11.
