Japan’s first female Prime Minister only stepped into her role last week and she’s already facing a major political test. On Tuesday, Sanae Takaichi met face-to-face with a man who has rattled leaders around the world, including her Japanese predecessors, on both security and economic fronts. But experts say Takaichi, both for her personality and fortuitous timing, could be Japan’s best bet at winning over U.S. President Donald Trump.
Trump kicked off his first second-term visit to Asia this week with the ASEAN summit in Malaysia and is stopping over in Japan before rounding off the trip at the APEC summit in South Korea, where he will also meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
“This will be a relationship that will be stronger than ever before,” Trump said before their meeting at Akasaka Palace.
“I know from Shinzo and others, you will be one of the great Prime Ministers,” he said to Takaichi, recalling the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Takaichi’s mentor in Japanese politics and a hardline conservative like her. “You’re going to do a fantastic job and we’re going to have a fantastic relationship.”
Trump had already spoken with Takaichi over a phone call, and signalled that he likes her, calling her “a highly respected person of great wisdom and strength” and her election “tremendous news” last week in a post on Truth Social, and telling reporters that she’s “very friendly” and “beautiful” while aboard Air Force One to Malaysia on Saturday.
Takaichi, for her part, hailed “a new golden age of the Japan-U.S. alliance.”
A “successful meeting with Trump is a must for Takaichi’s survival as Prime Minister,” Tokuko Shironitta, managing director for Japan at strategic advisory firm the Asia Group, tells TIME. Takaichi, whose party commands a minority government and has slid in successive elections, has little room for error during her tenure. Her predecessor lasted less than a year on the job.
She needs to “bolster her image as a can-do leader,” says Jeff Kingston, a professor of Asian studies at Temple University, Japan. And with limited diplomatic experience up to now, her meeting with Trump will be critical to proving that.
Making America Great Again
Takaichi has thus far appealed to Trump’s vainer side.
She’s going to “pull out all the stops,” says Kingston. “I don’t know if that means cheeseburgers on the Ginza,” he adds, but it will certainly mean gifts, flattery, and pomp.
Trump on Monday met with Emperor Naruhito at the Imperial Palace in Tokyo, replicating the opportunity Abe gave Trump in 2019 to be the first foreign leader to meet the new emperor.
Takaichi has floated the idea of buying a fleet of Ford F-150 pickup trucks, which Trump called a “hot truck” and which would stick out on Japan’s narrow roads. “It’s a symbolic gesture in terms of the imbalance between Japan’s auto exports to the United States and very few imports from anywhere,” Kingston says.
Takaichi is also expected to announce a shipbuilding deal with the U.S. And her government has reportedly begun working on a finalized purchase package that would increase imports of American soybeans and gas—two key areas for Trump as U.S. soybean exports lag amid a Chinese purchasing pause and purchases of Russian oil have become a sore point in U.S. relations with several countries, including Japan.
“She has to convince the President that Japan is a critical partner in making America great again,” says Stephen Nagy, a professor of international relations at the International Christian University in Tokyo and a visiting fellow with the Japan Institute for International Affairs.
While Takaichi has openly praised Trump, applauding him for brokering a tenuous cease-fire to end the war in Gaza, saying she would nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize, and telling him she was “so impressed and inspired” by him—“She knows there’s no flattery too far,” Kingston says”—she may also know that it’ll take more than flattery to succeed where her predecessors failed. Former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was seen as fumbling ties with Trump, including failing to secure a substantive trade deal for months, despite having laid praise on Trump, as other foreign leaders have.
Instead, Takaichi’s strengths, Nagy says, would be playing against Ishiba’s weaknesses and highlighting her own similarities to Trump.
While Ishiba didn’t speak any English; Takaichi does. She worked as a congressional aide for then-Rep. Pat Schroeder (D-Colo.) in the late 1980s, giving her a deeper knowledge of the U.S. And while Ishiba was more dovish towards China, Takaichi is seen as a China hawk. Ideologically, she is much more closely aligned with Trump on issues like immigration, trade with China, and artificial intelligence. Nagy says Takaichi will likely praise Trump on his immigration policy, which has involved pursuing mass deportations and tightening restrictions on legal immigration.
And, Nagy says, Takaichi has portrayed herself as a strong leader, taking after both her mentor Abe and former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, whom she has both cited as an inspiration and drawn comparisons to. Takaichi also has a background in the media as a newscaster, and may find some relatability with Trump’s background in the world of television, says James D.J. Brown, a professor of international affairs and political science at Temple University, Japan.
“President Trump likes winners,” Nagy says, and Takaichi, who just won the premiership, has even echoed Trump’s slogan, promising to “make Japan strong again.”
Abe’s protege
With all the ceremony, Trump may be reminded of his 2019 visit with Abe, when the former Japanese leader brought Trump to see a sumo wrestling tournament. It’s a likeness Takaichi wants to lean into given Trump’s fondness for Abe, says Brown.
Abe’s relationship with Trump went beyond a political alliance: the two leaders became close friends during Trump’s first term, so much so that their friendship was dubbed a “bromance.” Abe, who was assassinated in 2022, was the first foreign leader to visit the newly elected Trump in 2016, gifting Trump with golf clubs, and after Abe’s death, Trump and his wife Melania maintained a close relationship with Abe’s widow Akie.
Takaichi “will be looking to cloak herself in the mantle of Abe to persuade Trump that she is his woman in Asia and a steadfast partner that he can count on,” said Mira Rapp-Hooper, a partner at the Asia Group, a strategic advisory firm, told the New York Times.
“I hear great things about her, I think she’s going to be great,” Trump told reporters on Friday. “She was a great friend of Mr. Abe, who was a great man and a great friend of mine.”
Before their Tuesday conversation at Akasaka Palace, which was private, Takaichi reminded Trump of his “enduring friendship” with Abe, and hinted at her own closeness with the former premier. “Prime Minister Abe often told me about your dynamic diplomacy,” she said to Trump.
While she may not be able to golf with Trump as Abe did, Takaichi gifted Trump a golf bag signed by Japanese golfer Hideki Matsuyama and Abe’s former putter, and she brought him to see the start of the World Series game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays. The White House posted on X a photo of hats with the words “Japan is back,” reminiscent of Trump’s signature red MAGA hats, and apparently signed by Trump and Takaichi.
Aside from meeting the emperor once again, Trump also visited the Yokosuka naval base near Tokyo with Takaichi, touring the USS George Washington, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, and overseeing a rally of U.S. troops. Takaichi has underscored the need to accelerate Japan’s military buildup after years of pacifism since World War II, echoing Abe’s militaristic vision. Takaichi plans to remove remaining restrictions on weapons exports in an effort to boost the defense industry. She announced on Friday that Japan would meet its defense spending target of 2% of the GDP by the end of March, two years ahead of schedule. It’s a move that aligns her with Trump who has insisted U.S. allies strengthen their defense capability. (The Trump Administration has reportedly called for Japan to increase its defense spending to 3.5% of the GDP.)
Takaichi’s relationship with Trump will not be without challenges, however. There is pressure in Japan to renegotiate the terms of its tariff deal with the U.S., particularly to give Tokyo more oversight over how its promised $550 billion investment in the U.S. is spent, Nagy says. It’s not clear, and some experts say it is unlikely, that Takaichi will attempt to discuss that in detail early on, but in time she may push for the money to be spent on economic security, supply chains, and material cooperation that would benefit both the U.S. and Japan.
“Takaichi does face domestic pressure on U.S tariff and investment issues, to get more clarity from the U.S. and make deals preferable for Japanese companies and industry,” says Shironitta.
Positioning herself as a strong leader for Japan could appeal to Trump, but it could also up the pressure on her to balance “domestic expectation” and avoid being seen as a “yes woman” to Trump, Shironitta adds.
“It’s a tightrope she has to walk,” Kingston says. “The business lobby is unsettled by Trump’s trade tariffs and economic policies, and would like more clarity. They certainly would appreciate the Prime Minister in some way conveying the Japanese perspective.”
“The last few U.S. Administrations have sometimes made an assumption that regional partners would be on their side and have taken their concerns for granted or otherwise overlooked them,” says Paul Nadeau, an adjunct assistant professor at Temple University, Japan, and co-founder and editor of the Tokyo Review. “The risk of Japan disentangling itself from the United States is almost zero at this point, but it would help the U.S. case if they could show a little more appreciation of Japan’s concerns.”
Trump has already signalled more openness to negotiating a trade deal that might be more favorable to Japan than he has in the months of negotiations with Ishiba’s government. “Look, I’m open to whatever there,” he told reporters when he asked about the possibility of renegotiations. “We have a great relationship with Japan and we’re going to have a fantastic relationship with her. We’ll see what happens.”
Buffering against China
Takaichi also has timing on her side.
Trump is to meet with Xi later this week and is expected to hammer out a highly-anticipated trade deal with China.
A lot is riding on that deal: U.S. farmers have sought relief after China cut its American soybeans purchases this year in response to Trump’s tariffs; millions of American users await a finalized deal for a U.S. buyer of TikTok; and the U.S. is eager to reestablish access to Chinese critical minerals, which became a flashpoint earlier this month when Beijing introduced new export rules. Improving ties with Japan could give Trump more leverage. (U.S. Trade Secretary Scott Bessent announced on Monday a framework agreement for the U.S.-China trade deal that would cover an extended tariff truce, the TikTok deal, rare earths, and even a possible global peace plan.)
Read More: Why Any Deal at the Trump-Xi Summit Is Unlikely to Last
“Trump has an interest in ensuring that they send a strong message to China of the solidarity of the [U.S.-Japan] alliance,” Kingston tells TIME. The meeting for Trump could be a way to “strengthen his hand before he meets Xi.”
“If Takaichi can impress upon Trump that it’s better to be friendly towards friends and adversarial towards adversaries rather than the opposite as Trump seems to have done so often in this presidency, that would be a win for her and for broader U.S. goals,” says Nadeau.
On Tuesday, Takaichi and Trump signed a new U.S.-Japan framework agreement “to assist both countries in achieving resilience and security of critical minerals and rare earths supply chains, including mining, separation, and processing.” The agreement could be a key piece of leverage in responding to China’s control of rare earth minerals.
Trump also signed a critical minerals pact with Malaysia and announced four new trade deals with Southeast Asian countries Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia.
The moves may be a way for Trump to buttress U.S. influence in Asia before the summit with Xi, after months of putting the region on edge over his volatile tariff policies and cuts in U.S. aid. At the ASEAN meeting on Sunday, Trump said, “My message to the nations of Southeast Asia is that the United States is with you 100% and we intend to be a strong partner and friend for many generations to come.”
As Trump’s first visit to the continent in almost six years, bolstering the U.S.-Japan relationship is also key to both American and Japanese security interests. Takaichi was expected to raise Japan’s security concerns about Beijing’s military build-up to Trump during his visit. (China has not yet congratulated Takaichi on her appointment.)
“Strengthening relationships with allies and like-minded countries in the region is the priority for the U.S. and for U.S. national interest” to guard against the influences of China, Russia, and North Korea, Shironitta tells TIME. “Such timing provides the significant opportunity for the U.S. and Japan and for Trump and Takaichi to showcase the reliable partnership and future plans for the alliance, re-asserting his Administration’s strategic priorities in the region, including defense cooperation, trade, and energy security.”
But Shironitta adds that Takaichi, while seen as conservative and nationalistic, is also a realist. And Japan needs to balance relations with China, its largest economic partner, too.
“She is expected to limit China’s influence especially in the strategic area, including defense and advanced tech,” Shironitta says. “However, she is likely to manage the relationship with China pragmatically, avoiding overt confrontation. The challenge for her is likely to be maintaining strategic clarity and significance with the U.S., while promoting economic relationship with China.”
