What can we expect of the forthcoming New York 20th and 21st Century Art sales? One thing is for sure: they will test the resolve of the biggest buyers in the world to compete with each other in a way that has not been seen since the heady days of the 2014–16 sales. Back then, Christie’s held spectacular evening auctions replete with museum-quality pictures and enjoyed sales totals as high as $850 million.
We have witnessed the two traditional curtain raisers for the fall season, the auctions in London and Paris aligned with the Frieze and Art Basel Paris fairs, respectively, and both European weeks have put a very positive spring in the market’s step. Gone are empty assumptions and speculative forecasts, replaced by the hard factual figures of sales both at auction and privately which have been very successful.
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In fact, Christie’s in London posted its most successful October sales since 2018, and Sotheby’s posted its most valuable Paris season to date. Both fairs also announced strong results and visitor attendances, with several works being exhibited or sold for over $20 million. The end of the Paris week was celebrated in style with the $37 million sale of a major Picasso Dora Maar portrait in the rooms of Hôtel Drouot. The serious collectors have returned, the European market is back to full fitness, and the rarest works by the most established artists are once more attracting the interest and bids they deserve. Reviewing the European sales, Sotheby’s head of private sales David Schrader remarked to me that “depth of bidding and levels of interest have picked up considerably, we are seeing more trades privately, and the fairs seem to have been much more active.”
A Return to ‘Classic Modern’
This season has seen a switch back toward established artists from the more speculative buying recently witnessed in the wet paint area. Part of the success of the Frieze Week auctions at Christie’s in October was unquestionably down to their focus on orthodox artists. The cover lots were Bacon and Freud and the content that flew, along with these, was by household names such as Picasso, Cézanne, Paul Signac, George Condo, Paula Rego, Peter Doig, and Gerhard Richter. Much the same could be said for Paris, where the top performers were Modigliani, Picasso, Richter, Klein, and Magritte. The collectors are back, and with them a return to more optimistic price points for the artists that have anchored the market for many years.
The New York sales look set to continue this trend; as Schrader put it, “the works on offer [in New York are] more classic modern in nature,” including masterpieces by Matisse, Picasso, Basquiat, Rothko, Monet, van Gogh, Kahlo, and Munch. Giovanna Bertazzoni of Christie’s was more emphatic. “The parade of stars,” she said, “is undeniably very seductive”.
The season’s artworks individually valued north of $10 million—there are a full 27 of them—are led by one of the biggest and most classic names of them all: Gustav Klimt. The magnificent Klimt Portrait of Elizabeth Lederer, from the collection of the late Leonard Lauder, is set to exceed $150 million at Sotheyb’s. This sublime painting, commissioned by one of the most significant patrons of the Secessionist movement, would grace the walls of any of the most important museums in the world.
And it will also be interesting to follow the results for Renoir, Léger, and Matisse, three major artists whose prices have softened over the past decade, but who are represented this season by several very significant works. Of these works, the 1891 Renoir Baigneuse from the Kawamura Museum seems the one to watch at a litmus test estimate of $7.5–10 million at Christie’s. It is a very fine example with a long exhibition history but lies outside current market taste. How will Renoir’s prices be trending in another 10 years?
The Next Generation of High-Priced Artists
The sales also boast a fascinating group of works by the next generation of artists who are likely to write new headlines beyond $10 million; the results for the major pieces by Doig, Kerry James Marshall, Cecily Brown, and Maurizio Cattelan will be worth watching. Marshall is enjoying tremendous reviews of his fine retrospective at the Royal Academy in London and is destined to become one of the most sought-after artists of the next 10 years. In the sales there are two key works on offer, John Punch (Angry Black Man 1646) of 2007 at Christie’s, and Untitled of 2008 at Sotheby’s. Both are very fine, important paintings and should garner deservedly strong competition. Brown’s High Society of 1997–98 is among the most engaging works by the artist to appear on the open market and at $4–6 million at Sotheby’s seems very reasonably priced for a painting of its caliber, scale, and complexity.
How Deep is the Middle Market?
Speaking after the sales in Paris, Valérie Didier-Hess of Christie’s was quick to note how strong the middle market has been, “with a lot of new clients bringing more depth to the bidding.” This will be required in spades in New York, where there is a risk that supply could outstrip demand.
The two houses have filled their day sales to bursting with works valued from $20,000 right up to $500,000 and beyond. There are some 1,200 works at this price level within the space of four days. Added to issues created by this narrow window, the majority of these 1,200 works are by American-facing artists, which raises the question of whether the recovering market will bring sufficient clients to the table to compete for such a large volume of objects.
On the sellers’ side, we may see slightly softer sell-through rates as a result; the silver lining for buyers will be opportunities for works priced more invitingly. Perhaps more pragmatic approaches to estimates and reserves will be rewarded. Reflecting on the Paris results, Valérie commented, “we have been much more selective in the artworks and artists we represent, and very strict with our estimates, leading to very good competition.” This appears to be the magic formula as the markets are guided toward a “return to order”; the practical test of this theory will play out before our eyes over the next fortnight.
