Two days after Democrats saw resounding election victories in multiple states, the debate inside their own ranks over the government shutdown has only intensified, pitting progressives determined to hold the line against moderates eyeing a potential off-ramp.
A group of progressive Senators have been urging colleagues not to accept any deal that reopens the government without a binding commitment to extend the Affordable Care Act’s expiring insurance subsidies, the central sticking point of the shutdown that has now dragged into its sixth week, making it the longest in history.
“If they cave now and go forward with a meaningless vote, I think it will be a horrible policy decision, and I think politically, to the Democrats,” progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont told reporters. “Some of you may have heard the expression, ‘when we fight, we win.’ …Well, when you cave, you lose.”
But several moderate-leaning Democrats declined to say on Thursday how they would vote on any proposal that fell short of a binding commitment to extend the ACA subsidies. “My red line is those people [losing health care],” Sen. Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat, told TIME. “I’ll leave it at that.”
President Donald Trump said this week that the shutdown had been a “big factor, negative” in GOP election losses on Tuesday—an admission that Democrats seized on as evidence they should hold their ground. “Donald Trump clearly is feeling pressure to bring this shutdown to an end,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, said on the Senate floor. “Well, I have good news for the president: Meet with Democrats, reopen the government.”
Yet the party remains divided over whether the election results amounted to a mandate from voters to continue pressing their health care demands. “If you think because we won elections that we’ve expected to do that to keep our government shut down, then that would confirm that it’s a political game,” Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, a vocal opponent of his party’s shutdown strategy tells TIME.
Adding to the urgency to end the shutdown, the Federal Aviation Administration on Wednesday announced plans to reduce air traffic by 10% across 40 major markets starting Friday, citing safety concerns amid severe staffing shortages. The move all but guaranteed more travel chaos heading into the weekend, a potent symbol of the shutdown’s cascading effects.
The core of the dispute remains unchanged: Senate Democrats are unwilling to reopen the government without a firm commitment to extend key Affordable Care Act subsidies that expire at the end of the year, while Speaker Mike Johnson and House Republicans refuse to guarantee even a future vote on the matter. The impasse has prolonged what is now the longest shutdown in U.S. history.
“I’m not promising anybody anything,” Johnson told reporters Thursday morning, flatly rejecting a request from Senate negotiators to assure a House vote on extending the subsidies. Several Senate Democrats signaled that Johnson’s comments were problematic, sending negotiators scrambling for new options even as pressure mounted to bring relief to millions of furloughed federal workers and families missing food assistance payments.
Senate Republicans are planning to hold another vote on the House-passed continuing resolution on Friday, which would reopen the government but has been voted down 14 times by Senate Democrats.
Republicans have also proposed reopening the government through at least January, advancing three full-year spending bills covering veterans’ programs, agriculture and the legislative branch, and guarantee a future vote on the expiring health subsidies. That vote, however, would carry no promise of passage—or of support from the House or White House.
“I don’t see the movement by the president or the speaker or the leader to do that,” Sen. Chris Coons, Democrat of Delaware, told reporters. “If their position remains, we will not speak to you, we’re gonna have a really hard time resolving this.”
Trump is urging his party to end the crisis by abolishing the Senate filibuster, saying in a video posted Wednesday that the chamber’s 60-vote threshold for legislation should be “terminated.” Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota, the chamber’s top Republican, has continued to dismiss the idea.
Johnson’s own tone has hardened as the week has worn on. “I’m less optimistic this morning than I was yesterday,” he said Thursday, blaming Schumer for “pulling back” centrist Democrats from negotiating too closely with Republicans.
As the shutdown grinds on, one new element of the talks has drawn attention from both parties: a potential rollback of the White House’s mass firings of federal employees. Several Republicans have suggested that restoring those positions—along with granting back pay to furloughed workers—could be part of a broader reopening deal.
“We’re still negotiating that language,” Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the Republican chairwoman of the Appropriations Committee, told reporters. Collins said she wants fired workers to be “recalled,” adding that it was important to “get the government functioning again in a fair way.”
The issue could offer a face-saving compromise, particularly for Senate Republicans seeking to demonstrate responsiveness to federal workers in their home states. Yet progressives remain wary of trading away leverage for a narrow fix without ACA extensions.
Even if the Senate reaches an agreement, lawmakers warn that it could take several days for any bill to clear both chambers—especially with the House out of session since mid-September. Some Senate Republicans are pressing to adjourn next week for the Veterans Day recess if talks stall, a move that could further inflame public anger as paychecks for federal workers again come due.
Democrats say the message from voters is clear: don’t give in. “We are winning the hearts and minds of the American people,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal, a Connecticut Democrat, told reporters. “We’ve come this far and the American people seem to be with us.”
But others, like Fetterman, warn that the political risks of continued brinkmanship are growing. “We love to overplay our hands. It’s like we had great results with that election,” he told TIME. “But that doesn’t mean we’ve changed the dynamic in D.C.”
For now, that warning has gone unheeded. As the FAA braces for more flight disruptions, food assistance programs remain suspended, and federal workers await another missed paycheck, Washington remains locked in a familiar stalemate.
