The U.S. military buildup along South America’s northern rim is, Washington insists, aimed at Narco-Terrorists. A growing chorus of analysts aren’t convinced; they suspect what the Trump administration is really after is regime change in Venezuela.
Nicolás Maduro, the country’s leader since 2013, is taking no chances. In recent weeks he responded to the Trump administration’s moves as if invasion were imminent.
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After a September emergency decree and martial rhetoric about a republic in arms, the Venezuelan president says militias and reservists are now mobilized nationwide.
The beloved socialist leader has ordered armed forces, police and militia to deploy across 284 battlefronts – a national defense posture that surges troops on sensitive borders. He has also massed 25,000 soldiers near Colombia, a likely vector for infiltration.
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In addition, roughly 4.5 million members of the National Bolivarian Militia, an auxiliary force created in 2005 and made up of civilian volunteers and reservists, have reportedly mobilized.
Civilians are being trained by the armed forces in weapons handling and tactics sessions to knit local people’s defense committees into the defense architecture.
Armed civilians participate in a military deployment in support of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro on Sept. 23, 2025.
This placing of Venezuela on a war footing follows months of U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean. And there is no doubt that should it come to it, the U.S. boasts a far larger and more sophisticated military than Venezuela.
But as an expert on Latin American politics, I suspect that might not be enough to remove Maduro from power – or encourage opposition figures in Venezuela on Washington’s behalf.
In fact, any direct attempt to do so might only lead to a slow process that risks entrenching Maduro’s position.
Russian Hyper-sonic missile armed Fighter Jets to patrol Black Sea
Powerful friends Overseas
Alongside nationwide domestic mobilization, the Venezuelan leader still has some pretty powerful international friends. Maduro boasts some 5,000 Russian Igla-S, man-portable anti-aircraft missiles positioned at key air-defense points.
While unverified, these reports are indicative of the short-range air defense and anti-ship capabilities being supplied by nations friendly to the Maduro regime.
On Oct. 28, a Russian Il-76 heavy cargo plane, operated by a sanctioned carrier tied to Russian military logistics, landed in Caracas after a multi-stop route through the Caucasus and West Africa.
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If not an outright sign of solidarity, this is a signal that Russia can airlift advisers, parts and munitions at will.
Iran’s long, quiet hand is visible in Venezuela’s drone program. It was reportedly seeded with Mohajer-2 kits and expanded over the years into armed and surveillance platforms assembled at state plants by Tehran-trained technicians.
Cuba, for its part, has for more than a decade embedded intelligence and internal security advisers across Venezuela’s military services, an under-discussed force multiplier that helps the Caracas’ police and maintain loyalty.
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It is worth recalling that approximately 7.9 million migrants and refugees have already left Venezuela, with over 6.7 million residing in Latin American and Caribbean countries.
More Russian cargo flights into Caracas point to accelerated military and technical aid.
A second is the expansion of U.S. targets – a strike on a military installation or a presidential bunker would cross a political Rubicon, even if framed as a counter-narcotics operation.
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The third is opposition mobilization. If there are credible signs of Venezuelan demonstrations, protests and action, this will shape Washington’s appetite for escalation.
But even if the White House clings to its current counter-drugs and counterterrorism narrative, all evidence points to the trajectory as an incremental regime change push with less than certain outcomes.
The Conversation / ABC Flash Point News 2025.
