US September jobs report beats forecasts, August a shocker though
Newsflash: The US economy added more jobs than forecast in September, as America’s jobs market picked up after a summer lull.
September’s official employment report, delayed since the start of October by the US government shutdown, shows that nonfarm payroll employment rose by 119,000 in September.
That’s more than twice as many jobs as expected, thanks to gains in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government, though.
But there’s bad news too. The jobs reports from July and August have been revised down, to show that the US economy actually lost jobs in August (!).
The Bureau for Labor Statistics explains:
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported.
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Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, says today’s US jobs report is “unlikely to tip the balance to a December cut”.
Shah explains:
“Despite the fact that today’s jobs report is very backward looking, its making markets move. Equities and bonds seem to be picking the parts of the jobs release they like. Equities like the fact that payrolls were stronger than expected, suggesting the economy is still on a firm footing, while the bond market likes the rise in unemployment and slowdown in wage growth which may keep the case for a December Fed cut just about alive.
Overall though, in the face of so much FOMC hawkishness and without any further jobs reports ahead of the December FOMC meeting, today’s jobs release is unlikely to tip the balance to a December cut.
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Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month are rising, reports Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.
A cut still isn’t seen as likely, though.
Brooks explains:
There is some nuance to this report. The unemployment rate jumped to its highest level since 2021 at 4.4% from 4.3%, and there were revisions to the August payrolls number, which fell to -4k from 22k initially. Added to this, more timely data, including continuing claims rose to 1.97mn, which is a mid-cycle high. This is an interesting development, and the market is boosting the chance of a Fed rate cut in its wake.
Bond yields are falling across the curve in the US, the dollar has given back most of today’s gains, and the market has repriced the chance of a Fed rate cut next month from 25% to 37% after the payrolls release.
This report is significant, since we won’t get an October reading for payrolls, and the November report will not be released until after the Fed’s December meeting. Thus, this is the last labour market report before the next Fed meeting. A rising unemployment rate could trigger a cut, since the Fed has a dual mandate to maintain price stability and full employment.
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Some more timely employment data has also been released, showing that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week.
The number of fresh ‘initial claims’ for state unemployment benefits dropped 8,000 to 220,000 in the week ending on 15 November, the Labor Department has reported.
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Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, says today’s jobs report is better than expected, meaning it is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve into cutting interest rates in December.
James says:
“Today’s delayed September payrolls report came in better than expected, but there is still evidence of continued softness in the US jobs market. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 119,000, while the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%.
“On the face of it, this jobs figure seems a marked improvement and is ahead of expectations, but it is worth noting the downward revisions to what had already been disappointing numbers in the months prior. July’s nonfarm payrolls figure was revised down by 7,000 to 72,000, while August’s dropped from 22,000 into negative territory, at -4,000 – a combined 33,000 lower. A subdued pace of job creation has become somewhat of a norm in recent months, and while September has surprised on the upside, the ongoing data uncertainty leaves a large question mark over the true state of the market.
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Updated at 08.52 EST
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed that the October print will not be released as the data collection did not take place during the government shutdown.
That suggests today’s release will be the final official labour market update before the Federal Reserve’s meeting on 10 December.
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US unemployment rate rises to 4.4%
The jobless rate across the US has risen higher than expected too.
Today’s jobs report shows the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, up from 4.3% in August.
The number of people classed as unemployed rose to 7.603m, up from 7.384m in August.
The BLS says:
These measures are higher than a year earlier, when the jobless rate was 4.1%, and the number of unemployed people was 6.9m.
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US September jobs report beats forecasts, August a shocker though
Newsflash: The US economy added more jobs than forecast in September, as America’s jobs market picked up after a summer lull.
September’s official employment report, delayed since the start of October by the US government shutdown, shows that nonfarm payroll employment rose by 119,000 in September.
That’s more than twice as many jobs as expected, thanks to gains in health care, food services and drinking places, and social assistance. Job losses occurred in transportation and warehousing and in federal government, though.
But there’s bad news too. The jobs reports from July and August have been revised down, to show that the US economy actually lost jobs in August (!).
The Bureau for Labor Statistics explains:
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 33,000 lower than previously reported.
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The market’s focus today is on the September payroll report, says Mohit Kumar of investment bank Jefferies:
Even though it’s old, market would be watching for any clues around the health of the US employment picture. Consensus expectation is for 51K for NFP. From a markets’ perspective, close to consensus should be the sweet spot. Both a too high or a too low number would be perceived as negative by the market.
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US jobs report: a preamble
We’re about to, finally, get some official insight into how the US jobs market fared at the end of the summer.
September’s non-farm payroll is due to be released at the bottom of the hour, almost seven weeks late, due to the US government shutdown.
Economists have predicted that the report will show that hiring picked up after a slowdown in August. Payroll growth is forecast to have risen to around 50,000 in September, more than doubling the August increase of just 22,000.
The health of the US labor market is a key factor determining whether the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates next month.
So while the data is rather stale, it is also important for the markets.
Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, explains:
The shutdown stole October’s NFP, November won’t land until after the Fed meets, and [Fed chair Jerome] Powell is now flying the world’s biggest monetary aircraft with half the instruments frozen. When the pilot can’t see the runway, everyone in the cabin trades the turbulence.
Tomorrow’s release of the September NFP – a 10-week-old fossil – has been absurdly elevated into the sole guidepost for a data-starved market. In FX, this kind of void amplifies every whisper into a roar.
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Updated at 08.38 EST
US retail giant Walmart has raised its annual forecasts for the second time this year, and reported another strong quarter of online sales.
The company reported growth in US comparable sales, which includes online and stores, of 4.5% for the August through October period, above estimates for 3.8% growth.
It is now forecasting that annual net sales to rise 4.8% to 5.1%, up from a prior target of 3.75% to 4.75%.
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UBS: AI capex to almost double to $4.7trn
Artificial intelligence spending commitments could almost double, compared to existing plans, over the next five years, Swiss bank UBS has forecast.
In its 2026 outlook, released this morning, UBS predicts that AI capital expenditure (capex) will remain a driver of near-term growth in the markets, pointing to the opportunities in both ‘agentic’ and ‘physical’ AI.
UBS predicts that $4.7trn will be spent on global AI capex between 2026 and 2030, with $2.4trn already planned based on more than 40 announcements disclosed this year alone.
It expects $571bn of this spending to come in 2026 (up from a previous forecast of £500bn).
For momentum to continue, tech leaders and investors must believe future demand justifies today’s significant investments, UBS point out, adding:
Recent data center expansion means installed chip capacity could support a 25-fold increase in chatbot usage. But it is not just chatbots— anticipation of the next wave, including agentic AI (multiple specialized agents collaborating to replicate knowledge work), physical AI (robots, autonomous vehicles), and AI video, could drive further capex growth.
Businesses are rapidly becoming major AI users; agentic AI could drive compute demand to five times today’s installed base by 2030. Physical AI could push demand even higher.
With millions of robots already deployed and projections for a million humanoid robots sold annually by 2030, the need for computing power could soar even further.
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UK factory output slumps
Just in: Output at UK factories has fallen at the fastest pace since August 2020 over the last quarter, a new poll has found.
The CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey (ITS) had found that manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to November, with bosses forecasting a similar decline over the next three months.
The poll, which measures how many factories reported higher sales vs lower, found:
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Output volumes fell at an accelerated pace in the three months to November (weighted balance of -30%, from -16% in the quarter to October), which saw the sharpest decline since the three months to August 2020. Manufacturers expect output volumes to fall at a similar pace in the three months to February (-30%).
The last three months includes the shutdown at Jaguar Land Rover in September, which pulled down UK growth that month.
Total order books were stable at a historically weak level in November, the CBI adds, with export order books still well below average.
Ben Jones, CBI lead economist, says:
“Manufacturers face a challenging end to the year. What’s striking in this month’s survey is how consistently firms link the slowdown to uncertainty ahead of the Budget, with customers delaying purchases and investment until they know what’s coming.
“With the Budget now just days away, the Chancellor must provide much needed certainty and back the government’s growth mission rhetoric with pro-business policies. For manufacturers, this must include accelerated support to address punitive energy costs and increased Growth and Skills Levy flexibility – interventions that would boost competitivness, increase confidence, and unlock growth.”
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Here’s a chart showing how the FTSE 100 share index has broken out of a five-day losing run this morning:
A chart showing daily moves on the FTSE 100 Photograph: LSEGShare
CLA president blasts Labour’s rural economic policy
Helena Horton
Gavin Lane, the new president of the Country, Land and Business Association, has delivered a blistering attack on Labour’s rural economic policy, as Emma Reynolds the Defra secretary watches on. She looks unimpressed, my colleague Helena Horton reports from the CLA’s annual conference.
Reynolds is due to speak but is not taking questions from the press or live questions from the audience. Defra requested the CLA send her questions from members in advance, presumably so officials could help her write answers to them.
Lane said of the changes to inheritance tax which mean a large number of farmers will find it difficult to hand down their businesses to their children:
“Whether through ideology inexperience, or perhaps a fundamentalist misunderstanding of how family businesses work, this government is treating intergenerational asset transfer as a problem to be solved, rather than the foundation of sustainable long term investment.”
He accused Labour of having “economic theories about wealth inequality without grasping the breaking up family businesses can destroy the very stability that we need to solve national challenges.”
Lane said Labour was pursuing business consolidation and courting big international companies rather than supporting small and medium-sized businesses which have seen increased taxes and costs over the past year. Unemployment is up, he added, and investment is down in the rural economy. He added that farmers are needed to meet Labour’s targets to build reservoirs and clean energy such as solar farms and onshore wind.
He added:
“I’m not sure why these taxation changes have been pursued with such vigor, or why there’s been little time for consultation, but the Treasury has decided that private capital accumulation is the problem, without understanding, in my view, that private capital investment is the solution.”
Lane said that farmers and landowners are not faceless corporations and that the people in the room “live above the shop” and care about their local communities.
Lane added:
“You can’t ask people to pay to plant an orchard they’ll never see grow. Then tell them their kids aren’t allowed to pick the fruit.”
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Dr Martens to raise US prices due to Trump tariffs
Sarah Butler
Dr Martens is set to put prices up on some items in the US in January as the British bootmaker attempts to offset the impact of Trump’s import tariffs which it said amounted to between £7m and £9m.
The company is also shifting production for US-destined boots and shoes from Laos to Vietnam where the tariff rate is 20% – half that in its neighbouring country. Such
measures are expected to mitigate half the impact of the tariffs by 2027.
Ije Nwokorie, the chief executive of Dr Martens, told The Guardian that Dr Martens had not put prices up in the US for three years and it would be ensuring it “maintains competitive advantage” there with careful adjustments on certain lines.
He added that the broadening of Dr Marten’s product assortment – with more shoes, and new boot styles including a new welly ready for next year’s festival season, had helped give a kick to wholesale sales in the US – which rose for the first time in several years in the quarter.
Nwokorie said the UK was not trading significantly differently to other European markets at present with the consumer “cautious right now” and “looking for deals”.
He said Dr Marten’s efforts to reduce discounting in a quite promotional environment had affected the sales line but it was benefiting from a “flight to quality” and people trading down from luxury brands with shoe sales up 33%. “The consumer is still buying products that meet their needs,” he said.
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Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, reports that Nvidia’s results have steadied market sentiment, while also giving bearishly-inclined investors something to get their teeth into.
He writes:
“While bubble fears won’t be completely dispelled by last night’s Nvidia earnings, signs of robust demand mean that investors are able to see the upside from here. The 15% stock price drop into earnings, and the accompanying 5% drop in indices, seemed to clear the air nicely, taking out some excessively frothy sentiment. Overall the bulls got what they wanted last night, while bearish investors (hello, Michael Burry) will still be able to argue that such exuberant spending will ultimately end in tears.”
Indeed, Burry (famously portrayed in The Big Short) has posted a chart showing all the interlinked deals between AI players:
Every company listed below has suspicious revenue recognition. The actual chart with ALL the give-and-take deals would be unreadable. The future will regard this a picture of fraud, not a flywheel. True end demand is ridiculously small. Almost all customers are funded by their… pic.twitter.com/0XyGQ8FjuE
— Cassandra Unchained (@michaeljburry) November 19, 2025
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Brazil denies planning to poison EU
Lisa O’Carroll
Brazil’s ambassador to the EU has hit out the “fake news” about meat and other food from Latin American countries, saying nobody is trying to “poison” citizens of the European Union under the recent trade deal with Mercosur countries that continues to be opposed by farmers.
Pedro Miguel da Costa e Silva told a trade conference at the European Commission that half of his country’s exports to the EU are coffee and soy, neither products produced locally, which go on to support a lot of business in the EU.
I think there is a lot of misperception, a lot of disinformation, a lot of fake news about the quality, like we’re going to poison the citizens of the EU that none of our products have quality, which makes no sense.
He said there was also much disinformation about Brazil and other countries in Mercosur such as Argentina flooding Europe with food.
If you look at the numbers, that, again, is not correct, you’re talking about 1% less than 1% . If you look at what Brazil exports to the EU, half of it is coffee and soy, two things that you do not produce, that you use as inputs, and that generates revenue, a lot of revenue, for the EU. And if you look at the other products, it’s minerals, it’s frozen orange juice. None of that is sensitive to the EU agricultural producers.
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Updated at 08.31 EST
