Turkish Cypriots are heading to the polls on Sunday to elect a new leader – but as history shows, Ankara is likely to have the final say, regardless of the result. A victory for the progressive candidate, however, could mark a significant shift.
The so-called “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC)” declared independence in 1983 – nearly a decade after Turkey’s military intervention in 1974, which followed a coup backed by the Greek junta. Since then, the northern part of the island has remained under Turkish control.
To this day, Turkey is the only country to recognise the TRNC – no other nation, including those in the EU, has extended diplomatic recognition.
The division of Cyprus remains an open wound as Nicosia is the last divided EU capital. The internationally recognised Greek Cypriot south is an EU member, while reunification efforts have repeatedly stalled.
Erdoğan has the last say
Two candidates are competing: incumbent conservative Ersin Tatar and socialist Tufan Erhürman, with recent polls giving Erhürman a 10-point lead. An outright majority is required in the first round; otherwise, a run-off will be held next week.
But analysts question how much real autonomy the winner will have. “Regardless of the outcome, history shows that the main player is Turkey – and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has the last say,” said George Tzogopoulos of the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP).
Erdoğan’s AKP claims to protect Turkish Cypriots but has been accused of intervening in the community’s affairs, including influencing elections.
Different perspectives on the Cyprus issue
Tatar, who is openly backed by Ankara, supports a two-state solution — Turkey’s official position on the Cyprus dispute. By contrast, Erhürman favours a federal settlement based on UN parameters and strongly backed by the EU: a bizonal, bicommunal federation.
Elias Demetriou, head of the Rapprochement Bureau of the Cypriot left-wing party AKEL, told Euractiv that Erhürman is experienced and participated in the failed Crans-Montana reunification talks in 2017.
However, he warned that the key question is to what extent the next Turkish Cypriot leader will represent the Turkish Cypriots and not be “a puppet of Erdoğan – as it was the case with Tatar”.
He added that no Turkish Cypriot leader has won re-election since 2005, suggesting that a change in leadership could be on the horizon on the Turkish-occupied part of the island of Aphrodite.
