HomeGalleryThe U.S. Must Beware of Taiwan's Reckless Leader

The U.S. Must Beware of Taiwan’s Reckless Leader


With all the news out of the Middle East and the ongoing war in Ukraine, it’s easy to forget that Taiwan is the world’s most dangerous flashpoint. China has long laid claim to the island and acting on those claims could lead to a spiral where Washington and Beijing come to blows over the issue—and nuclear use would remain a terrifying possibility.

Now, a confluence of factors have made the situation in the Taiwan Strait even less stable. The U.S. has been burned badly by Asian nationalism more than a few times in the past, and so should act with utmost prudence today. 

Read More: Taiwan in the Shadow of War

At the heart of this growing storm is the brash, new leader of Taiwan, President William Lai of the nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Instead of taking a low profile and playing down any claims to Taiwan’s independent status like his more cautious DPP predecessor Tsai Ying-wen, Lai has lurched toward formal independence with a succession of speeches making the case for Taiwanese nationhood.

One columnist at Taipei Times succinctly summarized Lai’s first address: “Never before has a Taiwanese president devoted an entire speech to laying out clearly, point-by-point, and unequivocally how Taiwan is unquestionably a sovereign nation.”

Not surprisingly, Beijing has reacted to Lai’s address with a string of invective. A June 26 editorial in the state-run Chinese newspaper the Global Times said that he “once again exposed his radical ‘Taiwan independence’ stance” and accused him of “pushing cross-strait relations and Taiwan’s development to the edge of more conflict and risk.”

The political milieu on Taiwan is polarized, with islanders in July rejecting an unprecedented recall vote of opposition lawmakers from the Kuomintang (KMT), which controls the legislature and opposes formal independence. When the KMT this week elected a new chairperson, Cheng Li-wun, the party was accused of falling victim to an influence campaign orchestrated by Beijing.

When Taiwan held its annual Han Kuang military exercises earlier this year, it involved numerous innovations meant to address the growing Chinese military threat. The exercises lasted longer than usual, involved the extensive use of reservists, showcased new weaponry, and practiced urban warfare.

Read More: How Trump Can Avoid War Over Taiwan

But it was another sign of Taipei misdirecting its defense efforts. That money would be better spent, as military experts have long said, on asymmetric weapons like mines given that Taiwan’s ports and air bases would be the main targets for China’s initial air and missile campaign. Shifting the focus to more affordable and widely dispersed ground combat systems makes sense for Taiwan.

But even that approach has problems. American M1 Abrams tanks joined Taiwan’s forces for the first time, but they have been paraded around Russia as trophies from the war in Ukraine. It’s beyond any doubt that the PLA has secured from Russia the very latest intelligence on this platform’s weak points and doctrine on defeating it. The same is true on the vaunted HIMARS system that have also arrived in Taiwan.

Other factors don’t bode well for Taiwan. There has been much talk about the shortage of American-made Patriot anti-missile batteries thanks to the Russia-Ukraine War, so the PLA may wish to act before that shortfall can be rectified. Nor can it be ruled out that China, while normally cautious, might instead act decisively against Taiwan at a point of crisis for Kyiv, since the West would likely be more distracted.

Beijing is obviously trying to read the tea leaves in Washington. President Donald Trump has judiciously taken a cautious approach on Taiwan, especially when compared to his predecessor. But some of his top advisors, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, have adopted a notably hawkish tone. Elon Musk, the Trump advisor who was most knowledgeable about China and whose experience with Beijing goes back decades, is now nowhere near the Oval Office.

On the high-stakes Taiwan issue, Washington should tread carefully. Taiwan constitutes a core interest for China and the military balance gets ever more lopsided against Taiwan by the day.

American leaders should not hesitate to rein in Taiwan’s evidently reckless leader, perhaps with a private warning. It would not be the first time that Washington has rebuked Taipei for threatening the status quo.

In the meantime, the U.S. should refocus its defense efforts in the Pacific on protecting actual treaty allies Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea—a wholly realistic and sensible goal. But Taiwan does not represent a vital U.S. national security interest. It is not a treaty ally, nor are the various geostrategic or economic rationales to defend Taiwan enough to risk a potentially catastrophic great power war.

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