There can now be little doubt that the world leader who is most pleased that Donald Trump is in the White House again, apart from Trump himself, is President Xi Jinping. Certainly he did nothing to hide his happiness at the recent summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Tianjin and then at his own military parade in Beijing to mark the 80th anniversary of what the Chinese Communist Party now defines as China’s victory over Japan.
If Trump had not chosen to alienate so many of America’s partners in the Indo-Pacific by bullying them with import tariffs and other threats, it is unlikely that so many government leaders would have attended both events, including the leaders of India and Vietnam, both countries that Trump’s predecessors in the White House had courted as strategic partners. This was an exhibition of American self-harm just as much as it was a show of China’s attractiveness.
Some government leaders such as those of Indonesia and Malaysia would have attended anyway, for they have long had a policy of seeking close friendships with both America and China. So, of course, would have Xi’s fellow dictators Vladimir Putin of Russia, Kim Jong Un of North Korea and Mazoud Pezeshkan of Iran.
Nonetheless it was all a triumph for President Xi. It gave him a perfect platform on which to claim that, unlike Trump’s United States, China is a defender of free trade, of international law, and of peace and security – even though all three of those claims are false.
China’s economy is protected, it breaches international law on a daily basis in the South China Sea and its support for Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine shows it has little interest in peace.
For President Xi, however, it is enough that for the time being President Trump looks so bad on these issues that he and China can pretend to be good.
We should take care not to be fooled by China’s theatrical show or by Xi’s triumphal words. The truth about Russia, Iran and North Korea is that they all attended out of weakness, not strength.
Russia is making no progress in its attempt to seize more territory in Ukraine, and its prospects for successfully financing its future war effort will depend crucially on whether the oil price continues to fall even lower than its current US$65.
Iran has had its military reputation destroyed by Israel.
And although North Korea has made money by selling weapons and supplying troops to Russia, its economy continues to be weak and dependent on Chinese support.
All three were vassals paying court to their Chinese overlord.
The presence of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi was certainly a symbolic confirmation that Trump has succeeded in his eight months back in office in alienating a country his predecessors had spent a quarter of a century trying to court as a counter-balance to China. Trump’s bullying of India represents an enormous act of geopolitical self-harm.
But no one, least of all China, should jump to any hasty conclusions about Modi’s intentions. Modi’s attendance in China was meant to show that India is a proud and independent country, one that will not be intimidated by anyone but also will not accept any obligations from anyone, including China.
The case for Japan continuing to build its close relationship with India remains as strong as ever.
This Chinese show was not a demonstration of a new, China-centered world order, however much Xi would like to claim that it was. It was a confirmation of the continuing strength of the Sino-Russian axis, but we have known about that since 2022 if not before, and the accompanying announcement of the new Siberian gas pipeline connecting the two countries demonstrated how their mutual dependency is deepening.
Most of all, the Chinese show was a confirmation that the real novelty in world affairs is the isolation of America from its old allies and partners.
The big question that China’s evident pleasure at that American isolation raises is what impact it might have on Xi’s calculations about the potential risk and reward that might come from challenging America in the Indo-Pacific.
Xi uses many brave words about how China is “unstoppable” but he must be keenly aware that its economy is weaker than before and that, with its population shrinking and aging, its prospects of returning to buoyant growth are problematic to say the least. No one should expect an imminent economic collapse, but China clearly has major problems to deal with.
At the same time, thanks to high US public debt (which is nearing Japanese levels in proportion to GDP) and to Trump’s adoption of a high tariff wall, it is quite possible that America will pass through a difficult economic time in the next few years.
It is even likelier that America will become deeply distracted by domestic political conflict, as the resistance against Trump’s attempts to increase the power of the presidency and to exert dictatorial controls gathers strength.
If Xi does see America descending into internal conflict, with Trump also having alienated many former allies and partners, what might he do? He could just sit, watch and enjoy it. But the risk that all countries of the region need to watch for is the risk that Xi might try to test, and then perhaps exploit, American weakness or lack of attention.
The obvious and perhaps safest way in which China could test Trump would be to increase the level of its pressure on the Philippines in the South China Sea, toward and perhaps beyond the point that could trigger the Mutual Defense Treaty between the US and the Philippines. An even bolder, but more dangerous, target would of course be Taiwan.
It remains likely that President Xi will act cautiously rather than aggressively toward what is still the world’s most powerful military power, the United States. However, it is time to take seriously the risk that this cautious judgement might be superseded by a Chinese view that the moment will soon come to exploit American weakness and try to seize Taiwan, for such a moment might not be repeated again.
That is the point when Xi would find out whether China really is unstoppable, and the consequences for all of us could be catastrophic.
Formerly editor-in-chief of The Economist, Bill Emmott is currently chairman of the Japan Society of the UK, the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the International Trade Institute.
This is the English original of an article published in Japanese and English by the Mainichi Shimbun in Japan and in English on the Substack Bill Emmott’s Global View. It is republished here with permission.
