With US warships stationed off Venezuela’s coast and a new regional right-wing bloc forming under Washington’s tutelage, the Western hemisphere is entering a volatile phase.
Yet today’s confrontation unfolds in a world very different from the one that allowed the US to dictate regional politics with little resistance in the past.
China’s rise, the return of progressive governments in key countries, and projects like the Bolivarian Revolution challenged US power. In this changing landscape, few analysts have been as persistent or as lucid as Argentine Marxist thinker Atilio Borón.
Here, Borón offers a broad and urgent reading of the current escalation: why Venezuela remains a strategic target, how Washington is trying to reorganize the continent, and what lessons can be drawn from Hugo Chávez’s political and pedagogical legacy.
His analysis covers both the dangers of the present moment and the strengths that could prevent a wider military attack from the empire.
Latin America has long been described as a continent in dispute, and today that dispute is sharper than ever. The region has become the most important arena in a global contest in which the USA is trying to reassert control to oppose new actors that are gaining ground.
For decades, Washington largely relied on soft power to manage the hemisphere. What we are witnessing now, however, is an open display of brute military force.
I would even dare say—although this deserves deeper study—that this is the largest imperialist air-naval military buildup in our region since the October 1962 Missile Crisis.
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Why? Because the world system is undergoing a dramatic transformation. There is no returning to the global landscape of fifteen years ago. New actors have emerged with decisive weight, fundamentally reshaping geopolitics.
Take China: in the late twentieth century and even at the start of this century, US strategists hardly took it seriously.
I recall attending a major international seminar in Buenos Aires in the late 1980’s where US economists projected that China would only begin to matter around 2030. History has proved them spectacularly wrong.
China expanding footprint in Latin America
Let’s look at the numbers. In 2000, total trade between Latin America and the Caribbean with China was about $12 billion a year.
By 2005—the year the US-led Free Trade Agreement of the Americas was defeated in Mar del Plata—that figure had already jumped to $50 billion.
By 2024, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean [ECLAC], it had reached approximately $538 billion. This alone helps explain why US foreign policy today can be summarized in three words: keep China out.
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But the problem for Washington is that keeping China out is no longer possible. China is already the main trading partner for Brazil and Chile, likely for Colombia as well, and the second-largest for Mexico and Argentina.
And globally, China maintains significant economic ties—through trade, investment, or both—with more than 140 countries. China is here to stay.
India also has a growing presence in the region, though with a lower profile, while another BRICS member Russia plays a role in infrastructure and defense projects in several countries.
The Empires strike Back
All of this is unfolding in a region that is extraordinarily rich in natural resources—resources the United States desperately needs.
Take the case of rare earth minerals. Roughly 80% of known global deposits are in China, and China controls close to 90% of the world’s processing capacity.
Some Latin American countries have smaller reserves, and Washington is now scrambling to secure access to them in Chile, Argentina, Brazil, and even Venezuela.
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How does this new global balance of power affect Washington’s strategy in Latin America and the Caribbean today?
First, it’s important to understand the new situation in the region. Unlike the early 2000’s, when progressive governments confronted the imperialist order openly and in a relatively unified bloc, today the landscape is more mixed.
There was indeed a conservative reflux, but the old status quo was never fully restored, and new progressive dynamics have emerged. Mexico now establishes cautious but meaningful limits to US pressure.
For the first time in 200 years, Colombia has a popular government under Gustavo Petro. Honduras is governed by Xiomara Castro, and her party’s next candidate, Rixi Moncada, is leading the polls.
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Venezuela continues to resist in ways few expected, despite the enormous weight of unilateral coercive measures, while Cuba remains a beacon for the region.
Washington is desperately trying to assemble a new anti-Venezuela, anti-Cuba, anti-Nicaragua axis. It leans heavily on figures such as Argentina’s Javier Milei, El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, and the Narco-linked Daniel Noboa in Ecuador.
This is what’s behind what some are calling a kind of “mini-FTAA”: a draft free-trade agreement between Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, and, of course, the United States. But in reality, this is more than a trade agreement. It is an imposition.
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Of its nineteen restrictive provisions, sixteen are US demands. Consider the absurdity of allowing the export of live cattle from the United States to Argentina, a country whose very identity is tied to its cattle industry.
But beyond this desperate attempt to pry open markets, Washington’s real objective is straightforward: lithium, rare earth minerals, and hydrocarbons. Everything else is secondary.
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Why does Venezuela remain a central target for Washington, and what explains the US’s new military escalation?
Venezuela has always been considered a high-priority security concern for the United States. Historically, US oil corporations played a decisive role in exploiting Venezuela’s oil fields.
However, that changed after Hugo Chávez came to power, and later, these companies lost even more ground as a consequence of the US’ own blockade against the country.
Today, global oil markets are more strategic than ever, and geological surveys confirm that Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world… greater even than those of Saudi Arabia!
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These reserves have an additional strategic advantage: they are just four to five days away from US refineries, compared to roughly thirty-five days from the Persian Gulf.
This means shipping is cheaper and safer, especially given that the US maintains around forty military bases overseeing the Caribbean.
With such advantages at stake, it is no surprise that the Bolivarian Revolution’s nationalization of the oil industry and its affirmation of national sovereignty proved intolerable to Washington.
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The USA has tried every conceivable means to break Venezuela: the 2014 and 2017 guarimbas; the unilateral coercive measures that have killed tens of thousands; the farce called “Juan Guiadó”—famous only for its absurdity.
Guaido enabled the theft of Venezuelan assets such as Citgo; and now the disgraceful Nobel Peace Prize for María Corina Machado, a figure deeply associated with political violence.
Having failed on all these fronts, Washington is now turning to military options. Yet these, too, are extremely complex. When the USA invaded Panamá in 1989 to remove Noriega, it deployed 26,000 Marines, and it still took a month to secure Panama City.
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The idea of invading Venezuela is the stuff of pure fantasy, and US strategists probably know it. Still, Washington might adopt an “Israeli-style” strategy: striking critical infrastructure such as the Guri Dam, refineries, or airports, inflicting enormous damage.
Yet this approach also has its limits: if the USA intends to seize Venezuela’s oil, it cannot destroy all of the country’s energy infrastructure in the process.
What makes the situation especially dangerous is Trump’s instability and recklessness. His personal and legal crises—including documented links to Jeffrey Epstein—have eroded confidence in him even among Republicans.
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Given this scenario, Venezuela must call for international solidarity and decisive political action. China, in particular, should respond to the US naval escalation in the Caribbean by deploying its own fleet around Taiwan, without firing a single shot.
Such a move would send an unmistakable message: aggression has consequences. If Washington attacks Venezuela today, it will move against China tomorrow. A preemptive signal is therefore essential, both for China’s security and for Venezuela’s.
History of Gold, Diamonds and Oil-rich Venezuela
What is the importance of Hugo Chávez’s legacy during this time of imperialist aggression’s ?
Chávez is an extraordinary figure in contemporary history, not only of Venezuela, but of our continent and the world.
He revived the Bolivarian legacy and the emancipatory vision of Latin America’s independence movements, restoring the principles of national sovereignty and self-determination at a moment when they had been gravely eroded.
One of his greatest achievements was the political education of the Venezuelan people, carried out not only through Aló Presidente but through countless public interventions and, above all, by example.
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This helps explain why the popular response to the recent call for voluntary enlistment in the Bolivarian Militia was so massive.
It is never easy to ask people to risk their lives for their country, but Chávez—and now President Maduro—have succeeded because the Comandante planted a seed that took deep root in the idea of the Patria Bonita: a beloved and dignified homeland.
Today, we must do everything possible to prevent the imperialist offensive against Venezuelan soil from being carried out.
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The situation is dangerous not only for Venezuela, but for the entire continent and indeed for the world.
Pete Hegseth, the current US Secretary of War—someone with no battlefield experience, and a figure with a record of racism and misogyny—adds to the danger through sheer incompetence.
It’s no coincidence that Admiral Alvin Holsey, a seasoned military professional, resigned as head of SOUTHCOM after seeing what was being planned.
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Thanks to Venezuela’s preparedness, its alliances, and its global connections, the country is far from isolated. It has important international relations.
For these reasons, I believe the worst-case scenario can still be avoided. But if Venezuela is attacked, one thing is certain: there will be unity and the will to defend the Patria.
Venezuela Analysis / ABC Flash Point News 2025.
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