Support for Reform UK among British Indians has tripled since the election, according to polling from a diaspora group that suggests Nigel Farage’s party is gaining ground in some demographics where it has struggled.
Research by the 1928 Institute, a group of Oxford academics who analyse the British Indian community, shows backing for Reform has jumped in the past year from 4% to 13%.
The findings, which are being released to coincide with Diwali, show support for Farage’s party among Britain’s largest minority ethnic community remains well below the national level. But the increase since the election is far higher than the national average, showing Reform is building momentum in communities where it has traditionally struggled.
The report said: “British Indian support for Reform is significantly lower than that of the general UK population. However, there is a strong upwards trend in support.”
British Indians, who form about 3% of the population, are becoming increasingly important swing voters. For decades they were closely allied with the Labour party, which was regarded as being more tolerant of immigrants in the 1960s and 1970s.
But those ties have begun to fray as the community has become more established and its policy priorities have started to tally more closely with those of the rest of the population. Social conservatism among Indian voters and growing nationalism among Hindus in particular have helped drive them further right on the political spectrum, researchers say.
A report in 2021 by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace found Labour’s support for Kashmiri independence during Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership had been a particular turn-off for British Indian voters.
Farage has expressed mixed views on south Asian immigration. The Reform leader criticised the government’s recent trade deal with India for making it easier to bring in workers from the subcontinent but said in 2015 that he preferred Indian and Australian migrants to those from eastern Europe.
The findings from the 1928 Institute are taken from a report on the demographics and political priorities of the Indian community in the UK.
The academics surveyed more than 2,000 voters earlier this year and compared the results with voting patterns last year and a similar poll carried out five years ago. They found that at the last election 48% of British Indians voted for Labour, 21% for the Conservatives and only 4% for Reform. At the election five years earlier, Reform won just 0.4% of the British Indian vote.
Now, however, Labour support stands at 35% with the Indian community, while the Conservatives have collapsed to 18%. Support for the Greens has also risen sharply, especially among younger voters, going from 8% at the election to 13% now.
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The research shows the shift is being driven in part by changing policy priorities.
While Indian voters always put education at the top of their concerns, their second priority has changed from health five years ago to the economy now. Their third priority is crime, having been the environment five years ago.
Equalities and human rights has dropped from fifth on the list of priorities to seventh.
Nikita Ved, a co-author of the report, said: “Reform UK’s rise is disrupting traditional voting patterns within the British Indian community. As economic and social frustrations deepen, both major parties may face growing pressure to engage more directly with a community whose political loyalties can no longer be taken for granted.”
