Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have signed a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA), which, according to a joint statement, “aims to develop aspects of defense cooperation between the two countries and strengthen joint deterrence against any aggression.”
The agreement goes on to state that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.” It doesn’t specify any duty to employ military force in their support, however, thus making it similar to NATO’s Article 5 in terms of strategic ambiguity.
Many observers believe that US ally Saudi Arabia was shaken by America’s inability or refusal to stop Israel’s bombing of Hamas targets in Qatar, despite hosting a major US airbase there.
Saudi Arabia is thus supposedly trying to deter Israel via closer ties with nuclear-armed Pakistan, a longtime military partner it has financially bailed out several times in the past.
The apparent quid pro quo is that Saudi Arabia would support Pakistan in any future clash with India, potentially by cutting off oil shipments until hostilities cease.
That’s a compelling explanation of their interests in the SMDA, but equally compelling is the argument that it’s mostly symbolic for soft power’s sake and thus not the game-changer many believe it could be.
For starters, aside from occasional fiery rhetoric, Pakistan has never credibly threatened Israel. It hasn’t used nuclear weapons even in conflicts with its nuclear-armed rival India — which it views as an existential threat — so it’s unlikely to do so against nuclear-armed Israel, even in a scenario where Israel bombs Saudi Arabia.
On that point, Israel and Saudi Arabia are actually quite close, despite their disagreements over Palestine. Unlike Qatar, Saudi Arabia doesn’t host any Israeli-designated terrorist groups.
Likewise, Saudi Arabia and India are even closer, with India among the largest importers of Saudi oil. Both countries, along with Israel, are part of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) announced on the sidelines of the G20 summit in New Delhi in September 2023, but suspended until the end of the Gaza war.
Just as Pakistan has never credibly threatened Israel despite its fiery rhetoric, Saudi Arabia has likewise never posed a credible threat to India, even while supporting Pakistan on Kashmir. It is therefore not expected to back its ally with military force or impose an oil embargo on India if they clash again.
The real purpose of their SMDA thus appears to be largely symbolic – a way to save face after Israel’s attack on Qatar and remind fellow Muslims about the importance of more military and technical cooperation in the Muslim world.
The most realistic scenario for one to support the other militarily would be if the Houthis resume significant military operations against Saudi Arabia – something likely only if the Saudis resume their bombing operations and then request Pakistani assistance.
Pakistan rebuffed Saudi Arabia’s 2015 request for ships, aircraft and troops at the beginning of hostilities, so precedent suggests it would do the same if asked again unless the US pulls intervenes.
While it’s hypothetically possible that Pakistan intends to wage war on Israel in support of Saudi Arabia – including threatening nuclear use if Israel bombs Saudi Arabia – and that Saudi Arabia might impose an oil embargo on India if it clashes again with Pakistan, both scenarios are unlikely.
Many pundits have political or even ideological reasons to hype the agreement, so it’s understandable why some might see the SMDA as a big deal – even if it arguably isn’t.
This article was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.
