As student-led pro-democracy protests continue to sweep Serbia and trust in Brussels erodes, the EU finds itself caught between democratic principles and its green industrial strategy.
Ongoing anti-government protests and controversy over the development of an EU-linked lithium mine in Serbia are straining the already-wobbly relationship between Serbian citizens and Brussels.
On Tuesday, a shooting and arson at the national parliament in Belgrade injured a man. With tensions running high, the government called it a “terrorist” attack and linked it with Serbia’s nearly year-long ongoing student protests.
A 70-year-old man was later arrested for the shooting and for setting a semi-permanent pro-government protest tent in front of the parliament alight. The man said that he was “annoyed by the tents” being there.
The first anniversary of the Novi Sad tragedy, when a newly-built railroad canopy collapsed and killed 16 people, is quickly approaching, and the nationwide, student-led protests that the event set off are still going strong. In this context, Tuesday’s violence adds even more tension to an already volatile situation that is breeding distrust in Brussels.
Many Serbs still believe the European Union tacitly supports the government of President Aleksandar Vučić, a former spokesperson for Serbia’s 90s-era wartime President Slobodan Milošević. Some believe Vučić is more interested in protecting Europe’s economic interests than those of Serbian citizens, and that’s why he’s defending the controversial Jadar Valley lithium mine.
A protest born from disaster
Serbia’s current protest movement emerged in November 2024 after a newly renovated railway station canopy in the city of Novi Sad collapsed, killing pedestrians underneath. A Chinese contractor had carried out the renovation, and protesters cited shoddy safety standards and a lack of oversight.
What started as a demand for accountability quickly evolved into a national movement for democratic reform and political transparency. Demonstrations have drawn hundreds of thousands of participants over several months and led to the resignation of Serbian Prime Minister Miloš Vučević.
But President Vučić has responded with escalating rhetoric and repression.
Visiting a vandalised office of his nationalist Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) in August, he vowed to free the country “from terror and evil.”
“We will act faster, stronger,” Vučić said. “We will not ask anyone abroad for help or permission.”
Eroded trust in the EU
Serbia has been a candidate for EU membership since 2012, but tangible progress has been slow. Under Vučić, Serbia has maintained ties with both Russia and China, while ostensibly remaining a leading EU candidate country. As such, the country receives around €300 million in annual grants and €1.5 billion in pre-accession funds from Brussels.
The Serbian government has also not aligned itself with EU sanctions against Moscow, although it condemned Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and sold €800 million worth of arms to Ukraine in 2024.
What’s more, the organisation Freedom House has said that Vučić’s ruling SNS party has, over the years, “steadily eroded political rights and civil liberties, putting pressure on independent media, the political opposition, and civil society organizations.”
Despite widespread concerns about democratic backsliding, the European Union has applied very little leverage on the Vučić government. On Wednesday, timed for the upcoming anniversary of the Novi Sad tragedy, the European Parliament adopted a resolution strongly condemning “the ongoing political polarisation and state repression” in Serbia.
Still, the Commission’s reaction to the protests has been measured, with Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos calling the reports of violence”deeply concerning.”
In January this year, a public letter from leading Serbian activists to the EU specifically asked the Commission to be more vocal in condemning the protests.
“The rule of this regime all these years would not have been possible without, unfortunately, a very ambivalent and inconsistent policy of the European Union towards Serbia,” the letter reads.
A European Commission spokesperson told Euractiv that the enlargement process remains the path to addressing Serbia’s democratic shortcomings, including media freedom, electoral reform, and space for civil society.
“This also implies avoiding any kind of violence against political opponents and party premises as a means of political protest,” they said.
But for many in Serbia, the EU’s words ring hollow, as more and more see the bloc as too complacent with Vučić’s regime.
While polls showed 64% support for EU membership in December 2020, the EU’s Special Eurobarometer poll from September 2025 shows that support for EU accession in Serbia is down to 33%, the lowest in the Western Balkans.
“Everyone knows the accession process is going nowhere,” said Eric Gordy, a professor of political and cultural sociology at University College London.
According to him, many EU countries see no benefit in adding new members who would be economically dependent and might bolster the anti-EU camp led by Hungary and Slovakia.
Srdjan Majstorović, chairman of the Belgrade-based think tank Centre for European Policy, shares that concern. According to him, Vučić’s authoritarian regime is gaining increasing admiration and sympathy in far-right European political circles, which view it as a “vanguard regime.”
A political minefield
A large part of the anti-EU sentiment comes from the Jadar Valley lithium mine, developed by the Anglo-Australian mining company Rio Tinto.
Expected to open by 2028, the mine would supply up to 90% of Europe’s lithium demand, a cornerstone of the EU’s green transition – the bloc’s flagship plan to cut emissions, electrify transport, and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Without steady access to lithium, the EU’s ambitions for mass deployment of electric vehicles and renewable energy storage risk stalling.
“The EU is probably aware that the lithium mining project cannot succeed if Serbia has a democratic government,” Gordy said. That means no truly democratic government could survive the anti-mine sentiment in Serbia.
Today, over 63% of Serbs oppose the project, which was initially shelved in 2022 following local protests, but later quietly revived through legal and procedural reforms.
The mine will also use toxic sulphuric acid in a region known for agriculture, which could endanger groundwater and local ecosystems and threaten more than 20,000 farming jobs, according to scientists.
For Majstorović, the EU’s response leaves a bitter-sweet taste. He urges the EU member states that have invested strategically in Serbia to recognise that the long-term viability of their interests will depend on the emergence of democratic governance.
“Failing that, the EU risks facing a situation reminiscent of the sentiment expressed in a well-known Serbian song: ‘Where were you when I was nobody… how can I trust you now?’”
(cs, vib, cm)
