We in the media always get excited when something happens that we can describe as “new,” so naturally the arrival of Japan’s first female prime minister has attracted a disproportionate amount of attention in the international media compared with what happened when some of her male predecessors ascended to that office.
Image and symbolism do matter in politics and international diplomacy, so some of that attention is justified. I certainly welcome the disproportionate attention given that, as I wrote in my 2020 book Japan’s Far More Female Future, role models are important builders of confidence among new generations and, thanks to greater access to full university education since the 1990s, the coming generations of female professionals in Japan in all fields are far larger than ever before.
But we must be careful also to pay heed to the other factors that will determine whether Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will turn out to have a long-term impact.
In truth, there are four known aspects of Takaichi’s ascent to the prime ministership that look important and relevant to her prospects, but also one further aspect that is partially unknown or at least unproven.
The known aspects:
- Yes, she is female.
- She is not from a family political dynasty – unlike most other senior Liberal Democratic Party figures.
- She is socially and politically conservative.
- Most importantly, she has ascended at a moment of weakness for her party such that her government lacks a majority in the Diet.
The unknown or unproven aspect concerns her skills as a communicator.
Thanks in part to her novelty as a female outsider, she has begun office with a high approval rating among the public, even though few really know her well because she has not been a frontline political communicator and her career as a television presenter ended three decades ago. If she is to remain popular she will have to show that she does have those communication skills, not just in the Diet but with the public.
Meloni comparison
A good point of comparison is Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, who three years ago became the first Italian woman to occupy that role. As with Takaichi the media have found it hard to know what label to put on Meloni – especially as her political party, the Brothers of Italy, has origins that date back to the pre-war fascist dictator Benito Mussolini.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Photo: Wikimedia Commons
When Meloni won office at general elections in 2022 by heading a three-party coalition, it was unclear whether her key aspect was the novelty of being a woman (and a young one, being just 45 at that time and thus more like Takaichi’s rival, the 44-year-old Shinjiro Koizumi, than the 64-year-old victor) or being a “hard-right” conservative or having limited ministerial experience.
Three years later, however, Meloni’s party is still leading the opinion polls and she has high personal approval ratings. One reason for that success is that Meloni has not truly revealed herself to be an extremist or unusually “hard-right” conservative. She has governed as a rather traditional, mainstream conservative.
Crucially, this means that she has avoided being a polarizing leader who makes enemies for herself. In fact, she has shown such strong communication skills that she has prevented any of her opponents from gaining popular traction.
On one key issue, immigration, Meloni has successfully used her conservative reputation to be able to act in quite a liberal way: By showing that she is willing to take tough action against illegal immigration and on related law-and-order issues, she has opened up the space to enable an increase in legal immigration – notably permitting a forecast 500,000 immigrant workers on temporary visas in the period 2026-28.
Like Japan, Italy has an aging and shrinking population and so needs immigration to avoid labor shortages.
Takaichi needs to win back some votes
This could be a useful omen for Takaichi: Japan needs a steady flow of immigrants if services are to be maintained, and yet populist parties such as Sanseito have stolen away votes by successfully blending together public fears about immigration with the sometimes disruptive impact of mass tourism.
Takaichi needs to win those votes back, and to do so her government will have to show that it can be tough in managing immigration without closing Japan’s borders – as well as being tough on the underlying force that has made voters discontented, the way price inflation is eroding household incomes.
To do that will mainly require smart policies, led in the case of inflation by the Bank of Japan rather than the government itself. If the central bank is to succeed in getting inflation back under control, Takaichi will have to drop her own previous populist position opposing higher interest rates and will have to give the BOJ’s Governor Kazuo Ueda support in tightening monetary policy and, it is to be hoped, thereby strengthening the yen exchange rate.
Regaining control over inflation is probably the key task that Takaichi’s government must achieve if it is to have a chance of overcoming the big weakness that will otherwise cripple her ability to achieve other, perhaps more radical, goals: the fact that she leads a minority government, in a rather loose, newly negotiated but also fragile coalition with the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin no Kai).
She needs to get in a position to be able to call and to win a Lower House general election at some point during 2026. If she is to do that, she will have to show, first, that like Meloni she can be a tough but pragmatic leader – but second, and above all, that she can be a convincing communicator.
A big reason why she needs to develop and to use strong communication skills is that, as a woman and as a non-dynastic political outsider within the LDP, she will need to overcome prejudice and to establish a personal following that is stronger than that of her party.
Certainly, everyone has been watching the way she conducts herself in international circles, especially with Donald Trump. Dealing with the US president will always remain important for any Japanese prime minister, as will the ability to build partnerships with other countries in the Indo-Pacific. She has made a good start during Trump’s visit to Japan and the associated APEC summit in South Korea.
But if she is to have the chance to build on that good start and make a long-term impact as prime minister, she will have to focus not on diplomacy but on getting a grip on domestic political and economic issues, especially inflation.
In that task, she finds herself in a situation similar to that of her British role model, Margaret Thatcher, when Thatcher became the UK’s first female prime minister in 1979. Eventually, Thatcher became famous for her bond with President Ronald Reagan and for the label “Iron Lady,” given to her by the Soviet Union. But none of that would have been possible if her government had failed to regain control of inflation.
Let us hope that Prime Minister Takaichi has taken note.
Formerly editor-in-chief of The Economist, Bill Emmott is currently chairman of the Japan Society of the UK, the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the International Trade Institute.
This is the English original of an article published in Japanese and English earlier this week in the Mainichi Shimbun in Japan and in English on the substack Bill Emmott’s Global View. It is republished here with kind permission.
