After the disastrous results for the NDP in April, NDP members, the media, and the general public began to ask about the future of the Party. The leadership race began to look existential.
NDP insiders thought they knew what this race would look like, a battle between two political projects. Heather McPherson, representing the prairie progressivism of the Notley dynasty, versus Avi Lewis, the prodigal eco-socialist son of the Lewis dynasty. It was expected that this race would be a no-holds-barred fight for the future of the party between these two dynasties. And to an extent, they were right, there is certainly no love lost between these groups, and a CBC Frontburner episode between campaign surrogates Martin Lukas and Cheryl Oates quickly turned nasty. But on October 1, the nature of the race was changed; it was no longer a two-horse race between two opposing political dynasties, a dark horse had entered.
Dockworker, and International Longshore and Warehouse Workers Union (ILWU) President Rob Ashton, flanked by Steelworkers in the old Toronto port, announced that he would be running for NDP leader to bring the Party back to the working class. It was an exciting announcement, but one that had many asking, could a dock worker really defeat these NDP political dynasties?
It was a fair question. Both McPherson and Lewis are party staples. McPherson has been an MP since 2019, in Rachel Notley’s former riding, and has gained international prominence as a fierce foreign affairs critic, especially on the Palestine portfolio, and isn’t lacking in institutional support, with figures like Brian Topp and Notley supporting her. Lewis is also a talented, well-connected individual. He has run twice for the NDP, and his work as a journalist, and pundit have made him the most nationally recognized leadership candidate, as well he comes from the Lewis family, his grandfather David Lewis helped found the party, later serving as Leader, while his father Stephen Lewis served as leader of the Ontario NDP for better part of a decade. As he said in a National Post article, he is the nepo baby of the race. Even ignoring the individuals, both McPherson and Lewis have been planning to run for leader for months, allegedly both planning their campaigns before Jagmeet had even resigned putting together credentialed, well-funded teams. It would be a mighty task to beat both of them.
But Ashton might have what it takes. Ashton, whose experience with electoral politics is limited to union elections, is something entirely new for the NDP. Despite being the party of labour in Canada, there has never been a union leader who has run for NDP leader. Ashton is a bonafided worker, he has spent his life working on a dock, or working for those folks on the docks. He speaks bluntly, and when he talks, whether it is on CBC, or at a picket line, he talks about working-class issues, and class warfare. He doesn’t look like your typical politician either, compared to McPherson and Lewis, who are both older than him, he looks a bit like a socialist Santa Claus. His support largely comes from the ‘house of labour’ as well, with Marty Warren of the United Steelworkers standing with him at his launch. His vision and rhetoric is something new for the NDP, but also deeply familiar. And it has got people excited, he has gone from relatively unknown, to a serious contender overnight. If there was anyone who could disrupt this race and win, it would be Ashton.
This insurgent campaign has members of the pundit class paying attention as well. David Coletto of Abacus Data has already started looking past the leadership, and theorizing how Ashton might affect the national political dynamics if (when?) he wins. Coletto’s theory? That Ashton may be Pierre Polivere’s worst nightmare. This sentiment was echoed by former Harper labour minister Lisa Raitt.There is an undeniable momentum behind Ashton, hype reels have been made by miscellaneous twitter users, and his social media following has grown a hundredfold in just two weeks. It will still be a fight to win, beating the name recognition, institutional support, and time that McPherson and Lewis have already put into their campaigns won’t be easy. But if there was anyone who could truly change the dynamics of this race, it would be Ashton. I have been seeing it myself, many who were asking ‘can a dock worker really defeat these political dynasties’ are starting to ask themselves ‘can these political dynasties really take down a dock worker’.
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