(Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images)
This week, the Western Conference Finals begin with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder squaring off. Game one will be on Tuesday in OKC at 5:30 PM PT on ESPN/ESPN2. Below are five things to look for over the course of the series.
#1. Who has the better series: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) or Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves)?
The top-seeded Thunder are led by guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 29.0 points, 5.9 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.4 steals, and 0.7 blocks per game during the playoffs while the Timberwolves are led by guard Anthony Edwards, who is averaging 26.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.5 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game during the playoffs. The NBA is such a star driven league that series’ are often decided by which star players play better. The Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Edwards matchup is going to be crucial to deciding the outcome. Both guys will need to bring their A-game for sure.
#2. Which team will control the pace? The Thunder are 6th in the NBA in pace of play while the Timberwolves are 24th. The Thunder average 120.5 points per game which is 4th in the NBA while the Timberwolves are 13th in the NBA with 114.3 points per game. The Thunder like to get out and run it more while the Timberwolves play a slower game. If the Thunder can get out and run to their heart’s desire, they should be in a good spot to win the series. If the Timberwolves are able to slow it down and play more to their pace, they’ll have a real chance. Pace of play is going to be key given the contrasting styles between the two teams.
#3. Who wins the battle in the paint? The Thunder have some big bodies inside with Chet Holmgren (15.0 points & 8.0 rebounds) and Isaiah Hartenstein (11.2 points & 10.7 rebounds) while the Timberwolves have Naz Reid (14.2 points & 6.0 rebounds) and Rudy Gobert (12.0 points & 10.9 rebounds). Whichever team wins the battle inside will give themselves an edge. It’ll be fun to see how that shakes out.
#4. How much will home court matter? The Thunder will have home court advantage and that could end up being a huge factor. Both teams have dropped only one game at home so far in the playoffs while also winning multiple games on the road. Given the fact that these teams have done so well on the road and both have dropped one game at home, one has to wonder how much of an impact home court advantage will make. It’s usually a huge factor, but this could be a case where we see the road team find some success.
#5. Will the Timberwolves’ experience make a difference? The Timberwolves were in the Western Conference Finals last season and have made the playoffs four seasons in a row. The Thunder in contrast have made the playoffs two seasons in a row with this young nucleus and haven’t been to the conference finals since 2015-16, back when they had a totally different team. It’ll be interesting to see if the Timberwolves’ experience will make a difference. On paper, they’ll have an advantage in that department. But can they capitalize? That’s the question.
Prediction: I gotta roll with the Timberwolves in six games. I think that experience will make a real difference.
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