BERLIN – German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrives in Turkey on Wednesday evening on his first official visit, aiming for pragmatic diplomacy rather than moral posturing as Berlin and Ankara seek to reset ties built on mutual dependence.
Members of his coalition and human rights groups urged the conservative chancelor to confront President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan over the erosion of democracy, press freedom and the jailing of opposition figures, including Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu.
“The Erdoğan administration is increasingly suppressing the political opposition and the media while expanding political control of the courts,” Human Rights Watch said in a statement.
Merz, however, is likely to spare himself that balancing act, skirting human rights to avoid impairing quid pro quo negotiations in Ankara, said Yasar Aydin, Turkey expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin.
“Merz probably won’t discuss questions of democracy and human rights,” Aydin told Euractiv, arguing that keeping an apparent distance to the opposition is a bargaining chip Merz can use to bolster ties with Erdogan, who faces mounting domestic challenges with a weakened economy and growing public discontent.
Germany’s leverage lies in its economic weight and EU ties, but its dependency on Turkey is growing – particularly on migration control, security cooperation and regional mediation.
Possibly most important for Merz, whose Christian Democrats face rising pressure from the far-right AfD, tightening migration management with Turkey is a political priority.
Turkey has played a key role in curbing irregular migration to Europe since the 2015 refugee crisis, and the chancellor will be looking to intensify cooperation, for example on the repatriation of Turks whose asylum applications have been rejected.
In return, Erdoğan’s authoritarian nationalist government seeks progress on long-stalled issues: modernising the EU-Turkey customs union and advancing visa-free travel for Turkish citizens to the EU.
“Turkey is expecting a modernisation of its customs union with the EU and visa-free travel. I don’t expect a breakthrough here in the talks, but the chancellor will probably give a prospect of progress”,” said Aydin.
Germany also needs Erdoğan for Turkey’s geopolitical influence in the Middle East, its role as a key NATO ally amid Russian threats, and its potential as a mediator in the Ukraine conflict. According to Aydin, Germany wants Turkey to use its ties with Hamas to play a constructive role in disarming the group.
Wadephul laid the groundwork
Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul prepared the ground for Merz’s visit last week with a decidedly emollient tone than his Green predecessor, Annalena Baerbock. On his trip to Ankara, Wadephul avoided direct criticism of Erdoğan’s civil rights record and instead highlighted shared interests.
Wadephul nevertheless tucked a reference to Erdoğan’s record well between the lines.
“Democracy, human rights and the rule of law are conditions of the European Union that are close to our hearts. But I would like to emphasise: we want progress in EU-Turkey relations.” he told reporters, emphasising that Berlin wants an update of the customs union and visa liberalisation. “Overall, we want a positive agenda.”
Erdogan’s diplomatic win
For Erdoğan, Merz’s visit offers another chance to project international legitimacy after a week of high-profile meetings, despite ongoing global criticism of his authoritarian rule.
On Monday, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer confirmed a deal to sell 20 Eurofighter jets to Turkey – a deal Berlin had cleared by lifting its long-standing veto in July.
“The visits allow Erdoğan to shine on the international stage and will be lapped up by the pro-government media,” said Aydin, calling it a win-win situation for the Turkish president.
Alpha döner diplomacy
Beyond all the pragmatic political bartering, there’s a prospect of personal rapport emerging between Merz and Erdoğan given that the Turkish leader tends to get on with outspoken, male leaders – Angela Merkel’s gender and more reserved demeanour were hindrances in that regard, according to Aydin.
Unlike previous visits, there are no plans for the kind of cultural gestures that have backfired in the past. During a 2023 trip, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier sparked controversy by serving kebabs in Istanbul – an attempt at “döner diplomacy” to celebrate Germany’s three million residents of Turkish origin. Critics said the gesture reduced decades of contribution by Turkish immigrants to a fast-food cliché.
Merz is unlikely to repeat that mistake; the German government announced last week that the visit will focus on bilateral and foreign policy issues, alongside closer cooperation in economy, migration, and security.
(cs, vib)
