On December 8, the United Nations Security Council’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team released its 16th report, offering the most authoritative international assessment of governance under the Taliban administration in Afghanistan.
The report highlights that political order is defined by extreme centralization of authority, strict ideological control, severely limited institutional capacity and unresolved internal contradictions. Together, these factors cast serious doubts on the regime’s long-term effectiveness and its ability to deliver sustainable security and governance.
At the apex of this system stands Hibatullah Akhundzada, who, as Amir al-Mu’minin, wields undisputed authority. According to the report, Akhundzada is not a symbolic figurehead but the ultimate decision-maker, ruling primarily through religious decrees rather than formal institutions.
He remains physically isolated in Kandahar, which functions as the regime’s true political center, and does not engage in policy debate or consultation in any conventional sense.
Taliban decision-making is tightly centralized. Akhundzada has placed loyal supporters throughout the administration and Councils of Ulama have been established in each province, answering directly to Kandahar.
These councils function as tools for ideological control rather than independent governing authority. Leadership debate is actively discouraged and opposition is met with termination, imprisonment, coercion or exile.
Beneath this surface of coherence, the report reveals deep divisions within the Taliban’s ruling structure. The most significant tensions exist between Kandahar-based hardliners and Kabul-based pragmatists, particularly between Akhundzada’s inner clerical circle and the Haqqani Network led by Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani.
Haqqani has voiced concerns publicly and privately about governance failures and the uncompromising stance on women’s education. His month-long stay outside Afghanistan after the Hajj in 2025 and carefully timed statements upon his return suggest internal balancing rather than leadership unity. While some observers downplay these divisions, the lack of a clear succession plan remains a latent vulnerability for leadership continuity.
Several senior Taliban figures who criticized policies on girls’ education, including Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai and religious scholar Abdul Sami Ghaznawi, were dismissed, detained or forced into exile. Such cases underscore the enforcement of ideological conformity, where even internal religious discussions are treated as criminal acts.
The Taliban leadership considers public approval nonessential to its legitimacy. Power is exercised through an opaque, ineffective top-down communication system with little public accountability.
The nationwide internet blackout imposed in October 2025, which was partially lifted later without explanation, demonstrated the arbitrary nature of governance. Reports that the order was revoked by the prime minister rather than by Kandahar authorities also revealed divisions within the regime.
Administrators hold authority primarily in major urban areas but struggle to exert control in smaller towns. Powerful factions, particularly the Haqqani Network, enjoy operational autonomy as long as they do not challenge regime unity. These local departures from unpopular rules indicate selective enforcement that contradicts the principle of uniform rule of law.
One of the report’s most consequential findings concerns the systematic reengineering of Afghanistan’s education system. Education has been placed under Akhundzada’s direct authority and transformed into a vehicle for ideological indoctrination.
Curricula at schools and universities have been rewritten to remove references to civic values, democracy, constitutional law, human rights, women’s rights, ethics and international institutions.
At least 18 academic disciplines have been banned outright, while more than 200 subjects are allowed only after ideological revision. Entire fields, including political science, sociology, gender studies, media, economics and law, have been hollowed out or distorted.
The continued ban on girls’ education remains the most contentious internal issue, contradicting Afghanistan’s own religious traditions in many regions and carrying severe long-term economic consequences.
Despite severe financial limitations, the Taliban have prioritized the construction of mosques and madrasas nationwide. Religious ministries have been directed, mostly by Akhundzada himself, to expand and institutionalize the Hanafi Deobandi school of thought.
Other Islamic traditions have been removed from education, and monitoring and suppression of non-Deobandi practices have intensified, diminishing pluralism and promoting ideological uniformity.
On security, the report offers a mixed assessment. Overall violence has declined compared with pre-2021 levels, and sustained operations against Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) have weakened the group, though it has not been eliminated. ISIS-K still operates in small groups, mainly in northern and eastern Afghanistan, and retains the potential to carry out high-impact attacks.
More than 20 terrorist groups operate in the country, most maintaining cordial relations with the government. The integration of former insurgents into local police forces has expanded manpower but also increased the risk of ideological infiltration. Corruption, weak accountability, ethnic imbalances and budgetary constraints further undermine security effectiveness.
The regime governs amid severe economic stress. In the first half of 2025, GDP declined noticeably, unemployment was about 75%, and nearly 70% of the population relied on foreign assistance.
The situation worsened when more than 4.5 million refugees returned and women were prohibited from working in the relief sector. Tax collection showed slight improvement but had little overall impact.
The report concludes that the Taliban have consolidated control over leadership and introduced a certain level of order, yet stability remains extremely fragile. The regime relies on force, strict ideological adherence and oppression, not democratic governance or broader acceptance.
These internal dynamics carry significant implications for Pakistan and the wider region, as Afghanistan risks remaining internally rigid, externally destabilizing and resistant to reform.
For Afghanistan to achieve lasting stability and effective governance, power must be shared inclusively across all ethnic groups, political constituencies and women, whose exclusion continues to undermine legitimacy and social cohesion.
Without decisive action against terrorist groups operating from Afghan soil, progress will remain unattainable, as militancy fuels isolation, economic stagnation and regional insecurity. Afghanistan cannot stabilize in isolation; sustained engagement with the international community and constructive cooperation with neighboring states are essential for security, economic recovery and humanitarian resilience.
The path forward lies in regional collaboration, inclusive governance and accountability. Without these, any imposed order will remain fragile and unsustainable.
Saima Afzal is an independent and freelance researcher specializing in South Asian security, counterterrorism, the Middle East, Afghanistan and the Indo-Pacific. She holds an M. Phil in Peace and Conflict Studies from the National Defence University Islamabad, Pakistan.
