To date, 67 out of 130 countries have submitted their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), covering 36 per cent of global emissions, according to data from NDC tracker Climate Watch.
A NDC is a country’s climate action plan that outlines its targets and strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to climate change under the Paris Agreement. COP30 host Brazil has called on more countries to submit their plans ahead of the summit.
More than 90 per cent of countries missed this year’s February deadline to update their NDCs, with Singapore being the only country in the Southeast Asian region to have complied. Cambodia has also submitted its updated climate target.
Malaysia, which submitted its third NDC to the UN climate change body on 24 October, said that current projects indicate that greenhouse gas emissions will peak sometime between 2029 and 2034.
“Building on this trajectory, Malaysia intends to achieve an absolute reduction of 15-30 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) by 2035 from the peak level,” it said. Up to 20 million tCO2e is unconditional, with a further 10 million tCO2e conditional on external climate finance, technology and capacity building support.
The document did not include an estimated figure for the peak level.
This marks a shift from Malaysia’s second NDC announced in July 2021, which had only set a target reduction in carbon intensity against gross domestic product (GDP) by 45 per cent by 2030, compared to 2005 levels.
Indonesia meanwhile aims to achieve peak emissions earlier, by 2030. Its second NDC estimates that emissions will peak at about 1.3-1.4 million tCO2e, under low-carbon scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement.
This is up to 13.75 per cent lower than its first NDC, which estimated a peak of 1.6 million tCO2e, Indonesia said. Local media outlet Antara subsequently reported environment minister Hanif Faisol Nurofiq saying that large-scale reforestation is required in the forestry and other land uses (FOLU) sector to achieve this target.
However, independent think tank Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) said that this strategy is extremely risky, as a significant 207 million tCO2e of emissions reductions rely on the FOLU sector. This “effectively substitutes for emission reduction efforts in the energy sector,” it said.
“Under this scenario, emissions are projected to continue rising and will only peak around 2035, before declining sharply toward 2060. This indicates that substantial emission reduction efforts will not begin until after 2035, missing the critical window for action this decade,” said IESR.
Elsewhere in the region, Brunei’s third NDC commits the small country to a 20 per cent reduction in emissions by 2035, relative to a business-as-usual scenario and using 2015 baseline.
Brunei accounts for only 0.02 per cent of global emissions, compared to 3 per cent by Indonesia and 0.76 per cent by Malaysia.
Singapore, which was the only Asian country to submit its NDC ahead of the original deadline, had pledged to to reduce emissions to between 45 to 50 million tCO2e by 2035.
Meanwhile, Cambodia’s third NDC established an “enhanced and more ambitious economy-wide target of reducing emissions by 55 per cent by 2035, compared to the 2035 business-as-usual scenario.”
Faster progress needed
The UN’s NDC Synthesis Report, published last week, determined that at least half of the world’s emissions are covered by the latest 2035 climate pledges. Although the United States, the world’s second largest emitter, submitted its NDC in 2024, its subsequent withdrawal from the Paris Agreement means the plan is now considered void.
China, the world’s largest emitter, announced for the first time that it would commit to cutting emmissions by seven to 10 per cent by 2035 in September. However, observers say that the plan is too cautious and that the renewable energy powerhouse could do better than the target set, with analysts saying the targeted reductions are not enough to keep to the 1.5°C warming limit under the Paris Agreement.
At the launch of the report, UN climate change executive secretary Simon Stiell said that while the speed of climate action by countries has improved, the world still needs to “urgently pick up the pace”.
Countries that had submitted their NDCs by end-September demonstrated plans that are “broadly consistent with a linear trajectory from 2030 targets to long-term net zero targets,” he said.
“Ten years after we adopted the Paris Agreement, we can say simply – it is delivering real progress. But it must work much faster and fairer, and that acceleration must start now.”
