In the campaign to lead Japan’s long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party, and most likely to become the country’s new prime minister, the first phase – featuring the heaviest concentration of party-sponsored public events and debates – is over and it is possible to make some preliminary notes on what we have learned thus far.
First, as far as substance is concerned, the contest is Takaichi versus the rest. Sanae Takaichi appears to be the only candidate willing to assert bold positions that separate her from the pack.
On fiscal policy, she is open to using deficit bonds to finance stimulus spending. She is skeptical about a consumption tax cut in the near term as part of a supplemental budget but is open to discussing it over the medium term. She has questioned the announcement by the Bank of Japan last week about selling off ETF and REIT holdings.
She has also – in contrast with the others – called for a more aggressive timeline for coalition negotiations, suggesting that they should be completed before the new government is confirmed by the Diet.
She has also, as seen in her remarks at the opening forum, taken a more aggressive position on Japan’s foreign population and over-tourism (for which she has attracted critical attention), The other four candidates have taken much more cautious stances across the board.
That said, even Takaichi may not be so great an outlier. All of the candidates want to show the public that the government is moving quickly to address their concerns; most have emphasized the need to build a strong team from across the party; everyone wants to try to bring a new coalition partner into the government; no one is in a hurry to call a snap election.
There is enthusiasm about moving quickly to pass a supplemental budget that includes some proposals from opposition parties but no one thinks that the consumption tax can or should be reduced in the immediate term.
They all agree that Japan faces a severe international environment and all support raising defense support, though no one wants to specify how much higher defense spending should go or how it should be financed.
The fact is that all candidates have stuck strictly to their political brands. The start of the campaign has, if nothing else, featured impressive displays of message discipline.
- Takaichi is running as the conservative stalwart.
- Takayuki Kobayashi is playing up the importance of youth while advocating a Shinzo Abe-like program,
- Shinjiro Koizumi is cautiously emphasizing the need to address the cost-of-living crisis above all else. (He may also be too careful, consulting his notes constantly. Constitutional Democratic Party leader Yoshihiko Noda offered some unsolicited advice to Koizumi to not look at his notes so much.)
- Toshimitsu Motegi and Yoshimasa Hayashi are in their own ways playing up their experience and leadership abilities.
It makes for relatively frictionless debates – and, as journalist Izumi Hiroshi argues, a sluggish campaign. Nikkan Gendai called it the guda guda – worn out or sluggish – or the “used up” campaign, using the word for used tea leaves or coffee grounds. It noted that attendance was sparse at the candidates’ campaign rally at Akihabara Station Wednesday.
No candidate is working too hard to rattle the others.
Finally, none of the candidates has communicated a particularly sophisticated plan for how to approach the Trump administration. When asked how they would work with US President Donald Trump – who, by the way, wants to visit Japan around the time of the 31 October 31-November 1 APEC summit in South Korea – the candidates have talked about the need to build a relationship founded on trust with the US president.
None has gone beyond vague generalities when it comes to how they would accomplish this feat. Indeed, in the 24 September debate at the National Press Club, Motegi asked Koizumi for a specific strategy for managing Trump, and Koizumi said … he would meet Trump as soon as possible and establish a relationship of trust. Motegi, meanwhile, has said in multiple events that he wants to pursue further reductions in US tariffs, an ambition that seems unrealistic.
A Takaichi shift?
Nippon TV has released a new poll of LDP supporters on Thursday, September 25 that showed a significant move in party support. Since the previous NTV poll – conducted September 19-20 – Sanae Takaichi gained six points to climb to 34%, surpassing Shinjirio Koizumi, who fell four points to 28%. Meanwhile, Yoshimasa Hayashi gained two points to 17%, ever so slightly closing the gap with Koizumi and Takaichi.
Using a d’Hondt method calculator and assuming turnout similar to last year’s 66%, this could translate into a vote split of 115 for Takaichi, 94 for Koizumi, 57 for Hayashi, 16 for Kobayashi, and 13 for Motegi.
One poll does not necessarily spell disaster for Koizumi, but in view of Koizumi’s support fade last year – denying him a place in the runoff it cannot be waved off either. Koizumi may also be dealing with some negative press after Shukan Bunshunreported that Karen Makishima, an LDP lawmaker handling public relations for Koizumi’s campaign, emailed his supporters to encourage them to make supportive comments during a Koizumi appearance on a Nico Nico streaming program.
His support among lawmakers could be strong enough to make up for weaker public support, though if his public support fades, it could lead undecided lawmakers – still 107 of 295 according to Ooha Mazaki’s indispensable tracker– to break for other candidates.
The bottom line is that Koizumi, while still in the strongest position on the basis of his relative strength among both rank-and-file supporters and lawmakers, is not in an impregnable position.
Shadow coalition talks
On Wednesday, 24 September, former prime minister Yoshihide Suga, a key supporter for Koizumi, met with Takashi Endo, Ishin no Kai’s parliamentary affairs chief. These kinds of meetings are a) to be expected and b) indispensable if the LDP is indeed serious about bringing a new coalition partner into the government.
As noted above, this is an issue that has been discussed in the candidate debates, because there is a tricky issue with the timing. While the timing for an extraordinary session of the Diet that will select the new prime minister has not been set – presumably sometime in mid-October – the government will presumably want to have settled coalition talks before the Diet votes on a leader, determining the distribution of cabinet posts and agreeing on policy priorities, not to mention at least laying the groundwork for possible electoral coordination.
This process is further complicated by Komeito’s involvement. While it may be desirable for the LDP to conclude these talks before the government takes office, as Takaichi has argued, it is difficult to see how those talks could be concluded if they do not start until after the 4 October election. Thus, we should expect to see communication between the surrogates of the LDP’s candidates and opposition parties in the coming weeks.
Longtime Japan politics and policymaking analyst Tobias Harris heads Japan Foresight LLC and is the author of The Iconoclast: Shinzo Abe and the New Japan.
This article was originally published on his Substack newsletter Observing Japan.
