Topline
As the Supreme Court considers whether President Donald Trump’s sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs should be overturned, American consumers and thousands of companies—especially major retail and electronics companies like Walmart, Samsung, Target, Amazon and LG Group—who want their money back.
President Donald Trump holds up a copy of a National Trade Estimate Report as he announces new tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2 in Washington, DC.
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Key Facts
Justices hear oral arguments Wednesday in a case challenging Trump’s sweeping tariffs on imports from nearly all countries, which he imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), after two lower courts previously ruled the president did not have the authority to impose them and they should be struck down.
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs impose country-specific tariff rates on goods imported to the U.S., ranging from 10% to 50% depending on the country, and have upended business operations as companies have had to pay the substantial new costs.
A ruling that Trump doesn’t have the authority to impose the tariffs could mean companies are owed refunds for the tariffs they’ve already paid.
The Trump administration is likely to reimpose at least some tariffs through other laws, however.
Trade experts told Forbes electronics companies and companies making retail and consumer products could see the biggest benefits from the fees being struck down, both based on the possibility of receiving refunds and the potential sectors any new replacement tariffs could affect.
Consumers may also benefit from further tariff-related price increases getting cut off, and they may be able to recoup some price increases they’ve already paid, as consumers could file class-action lawsuits against companies who raised prices because of tariffs and are now getting their money refunded.
When Could Trump’s Tariffs Get Overturned?
It’s unclear. The Supreme Court typically takes at least several months to issue rulings after it hears oral arguments, though justices’ decision to swiftly take up the tariff case makes it unclear if they’ll try to rule more quickly here. Any decision will come out by June 2026 at the latest, when the Supreme Court’s term comes to an end.
Potential Tariff Winner: Electronics Industry
Electronics are one of the biggest categories of imports that come into the U.S., according to the U.S. International Trade Commission. The high volume of goods being imported, plus their higher price points, means the sector could particularly benefit from the tariffs being overturned, Brian Riley, Senior Vice President of Customs House Brokerage at logistics company GEODIS, told Forbes. Electronics companies are expected “to be among the most impacted and the ones that stand to gain the most” from a ruling against the tariffs, Riley said, predicting those businesses could get “an immediate windfall of cash” if the Supreme Court were to require the federal government to automatically refund importers’ duties. There’s no clear data on which companies have imported the most since the “Liberation Day” tariffs took effect, but previous data on the biggest U.S. importers from 2024 suggests electronics companies like LG Group, Samsung, Electrolux and Best Buy are among the biggest electronics companies shipping goods to the U.S. and could stand to make back the most if the tariffs are struck down. (LG Group told Forbes it is not commenting on tariffs, and no other major importer responded to a request for comment.)
Potential Tariff Winner: Retailers And Consumer Goods Companies
Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs have had a “significant impact” on companies in the retail and consumer goods industry, who have long sourced goods primarily from Asia, Andrew Siciliano, the Global Practice Leader at KPMG’s Trade & Customs division, told Forbes. While many sectors are likely to see tariffs get reimposed if the Supreme Court strikes the more sweeping tariffs down, Siciliano predicted retail and consumer goods could get more of a “reprieve,” given the very wide range of consumer goods makes it harder to apply product or sector-specific tariffs on them. The companies in this sector that imported the most goods into the U.S. in 2024, and likely to benefit from from a favorable tariff ruling, include Walmart, Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, Amazon, Dollar Tree, IKEA, Williams Sonoma, Ross, GE Appliances and Dollar General, according to data analyzed by S&P Global.
Here’s How Consumers Could Benefit If Tariffs Are Rolled Back
American consumers are increasingly bearing the brunt of the “Liberation Day” tariffs as they continue, Riley told Forbes, suggesting a ruling in Trump’s favor could help stave off price increases as companies have to shift more of the costs of their tariffs onto the consumer. “For many companies, [the tariffs] have passed the point where the cost can be simply absorbed,” Riley said. “Many companies are no longer able to absorb the cost, which means it is increasingly being passed along to the consumer in some manner.” Should companies receive refunds for any tariffs they’ve paid, trade attorney Robert Shapiro also speculated to Forbes that consumers could bring class action lawsuits against major retailers seeking refunds for any price increases that they’ve paid as a result of tariffs, though it still remains to be seen how that could play out.
Investment Funds Could Profit Through Tariff Refund Rights
An unexpected winner in the tariff case could be investment funds, as Wall Street firms are increasingly wading into the tariff dispute by approaching importers and offering to buy their refund rights in exchange for approximately 20% to 30% of what companies have paid in tariffs. The firms then stand to get a financial windfall if the Supreme Court overturns the tariffs and they get to collect the full refunds that companies have paid. The deals are expected to primarily benefit hedge funds that deal with alternative assets, along with litigation finance firms that are used to investing in legal disputes, but the secretive nature of the deals have kept a lot of information about them under wraps.
How Trump Can Impose Tariffs If These Are Overturned
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other Trump officials have said they’ll try to replace any IEEPA tariffs that get struck down using other legal statutes. Other laws more explicitly allow the president to impose tariffs but have more restrictions, such as laws that allow tariffs for a certain sector, which Trump has already used to implement tariffs on goods like automobiles and steel. “The U.S. Government has the authority it needs to try to recreate the IEEPA tariff regime if it chooses to do so,” international trade attorney Patrick Childress told Forbes, though he noted doing so would likely “take some time” to implement. The Trump administration would likely “prioritize” key imports from major trading partners, which means companies that “import a non-strategic good from a low-profile trading partner” may get to go longer without new tariffs, Childress said.
Would The U.s. Still Owe Refunds If They Eventually Impose Tariffs Again?
Probably, yes. Though it still remains to be seen how exactly the process will play out. And the Trump administration could try to claim any new tariffs should apply retroactively.
What We Don’t Know
The Trump administration has suggested it would refund the tariffs that importers have paid if the policy gets struck down—citing those refunds as a key reason that a ruling against the duties could be so detrimental—but it’s still unclear how that refund process would actually work. “The truth is that we don’t know what the IEEPA refund process will look [like],” international trade attorney Clinton Yu told Forbes in September, with David Warrick, EVP at supply chain risk management company Overhaul, telling Forbes that with an absence of any guidance from the government, companies are having “to start planning for all scenarios” on how the refunds could play out. “The tariffs may not be automatically refunded, it may be a lengthy process, it may be application-based for every single import,” Warrick said. “We just don’t know.”
Key Background
Trump imposed his “Liberation Day” tariffs in April after repeatedly promising sweeping tariffs on the campaign trail despite warnings from economists that doing so would harm the economy and raise prices for consumers. The tariffs only briefly took full effect in April before the worst of the tariffs were ultimately paused for months after roiling the stock market, with the Trump administration then fully instituting the policy in August. The cases at the heart of the Supreme Court case were brought by small businesses who have had to pay the increased tariffs and Democratic-led states, which argue IEEPA—which allows presidents to impose some economic sanctions during national emergencies—does not give presidents the power to implement tariffs, and there’s no emergency to justify Trump’s sweeping tariffs even if it did. The Court of International Trade and Federal Circuit both agreed with the plaintiffs, finding Trump’s tariffs to be unlawful, but the fees have remained in effect while the litigation moves forward. Trump has made his “Liberation Day” tariffs the centerpiece of his economic agenda, and he and his top officials have repeatedly claimed the Supreme Court case poses an existential threat to the administration.
Crucial Quote
“I think our country will be immeasurably hurt. I think our economy will go to hell,” Trump told “60 Minutes” when asked about the possibility the Supreme Court could invalidate his tariffs.
Further Reading
