Two days after an unprecedented drone incursion by Russia on Polish territory on September 10, NATO unveiled its response: Operation Eastern Sentry. The mission kicked off immediately on September 12 and was tested a week later by Russian jets entering Estonian airspace.
NATO says Eastern Sentry is about strengthening its defense posture, connectivity, and flexibility along its entire eastern flank.
While the immediate focus was on Russia drones and geographically on Poland, the operation is multidomain — meaning land, sea, and air forces are involved — and is meant to plug gaps from the North Sea to the Black Sea.
It was made clear, however, that it will only be in NATO territory, meaning there are no plans to enter western Ukraine to protect the skies.
While Kyiv would very much welcome such a move, and there is an argument for targeting Russian drones much earlier, many NATO allies are fearful this could bring them closer to a direct conflict with the Kremlin.
Integrated System
The key goal now is to move toward an integrated system.
Previously, individual NATO allies conducted air policing in different locations, with NATO providing supplementary support on a case-by-case basis, depending on the threat assessment.
The idea now is to have more resources linked to each other across the entire eastern flank, be it missiles or anti-drone technology.
It is inspired by a similar operation, Baltic Sentry, that was launched earlier this year as a response to a number of alleged undersea sabotage activities by Moscow in the Baltic Sea.
NATO officials RFE/RL has been in touch with on condition of anonymity view that operation as a success, noting there have been no recent attempts to sever cables or other infrastructure in the region.
While it will be trickier to prevent all drones from getting into NATO territory, the thinking here is a beefed-up presence will make “Russia think twice before testing again.”
Allies Step Up
Eight countries have already joined Eastern Sentry and placed assets at the disposal of NATO’s supreme allied commander (SACEUR), Alexus Grynkewich. More are expected to follow suit.
France was the first to come forward, with three Rafale fighter jets to be stationed in Poland, as well as an Airbus A400M military transport aircraft.
Britain will have some of its Typhoon jets fly defense missions over Polish skies, and Germany has moved four of its Eurofighters closer to its eastern neighbor, ready to conduct sorties at any moment.
Italy and Denmark have both also signaled that they will provide jets. Additionally, Copenhagen has deployed a military ship in the eastern Baltic Sea.
Spain and Sweden will also contribute, while the Czech Republic is actually placing some special forces troops in Poland and sending three helicopters as well.
Two things stand out here.
First, the lack of any new American assets being provided to Eastern Sentry so far.
NATO’s supreme allied commander, Alexus Grynkewich (file photo)
When asked about this at a press briefing, Grynkewich half-joked that “as far as US military assets [are concerned]…I’m right here, and I’m involved” before adding that “the United States commitment to the integrated military structure of the Alliance remains.”
US President Donald Trump, when asked by reporters on September 21 if he would help defend Poland and nearby Baltic states if Moscow continues to escalate, said: “Yeah, I would. I would.”
The United States has more than 10,000 troops stationed in Poland, and that number could even increase.
While there are widespread reports about Washington redeploying military personnel from Europe to Asian theaters, NATO officials who spoke to RFE/RL were adamant they have been given no indication that troop numbers will be reduced on the eastern flank anytime soon.
Cost Concerns
The second issue is that the commitment to Eastern Sentry has so far been focused on expensive fighter jets and other costly equipment.
This was one of the criticisms of the Polish and NATO response to the September 10 incursion: that multimillion-dollar fighter jets were used for protection against cheap drones.
While some European officials admit that Warsaw wants “a show of force,” others acknowledge this isn’t economically sustainable in the long run. Or, as one senior NATO official put it: “We, of course, recognize that the best way to defeat drones is not with a very expensive missile fired from a very, very expensive plane.”
Eastern Sentry is very much a sort of sudden measure until a potential “drone wall” can become a reality and complement what’s already out there.
NATO will be central to building such a system, and with the EU signaling readiness to fund it, the project looks likely to happen, but it is two to three years away in the best-case scenario.
In the meantime, the military alliance is looking at Latvia’s pioneering work with acoustic sensors that detect drones faster, as well as new munitions that allow aircraft to use cheaper weapons, both of which could happen rather quickly.
Mobile fire teams are another model NATO could adapt from Ukraine’s experience. Kyiv has been using these small, fast-moving units armed with machine guns or man-portable air-defense systems with increasing success on the battlefield.
As Grynkewich put it when pressed by the media after unveiling Eastern Sentry: “It’s time to take a fresh look at this. And we’re always learning. NATO is a learning organization.”
