Lionel Messi of Inter Miami takes a selfie with a fan who stormed the pitch after the match against Nashville SC at GEODIS Park on Saturday.
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Lionel Messi and Inter Miami were dumped shockingly out of the 2024 MLS Cup Playoffs after losing their Round One, best-of-three series to Atlanta United.
As big as that upset was – and some claimed it was the biggest in the league’s history – it would pale in comparison to a loss to Nashville SC this year for one reason: Messi and Miami have absolutely owned Nashville since the eight-time Ballon d’Or winner’s arrival in South Florida.
Here’s a closer look at the one-sided numbers ahead of Friday night’s Game 1.
The Team Results
Amazingly, the series opener will already be the ninth meeting in all competitions and the first in the MLS Cup Playoffs since Messi completed his move from Paris Saint-Germain during the summer of 2023.
The previous eight fixtures include the 2023 Leagues Cup final, a home-and-away 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup series and five regular season meetings. And Miami has yet to lose any of them.
Miami vs. Nashville since Messi
Miami leads: 5W-3D-0L
Streak: Miami won last five
Goal differential: Miami +9
Note: Includes all competitions
In fact, the Herons’ 5-2 win at Nashville SC on Decision Day marked a fifth consecutive victory in the teams’ series. And even two of the draws on the road in Nashville before that winning streak were productive Miami outcomes. In the first, Miami went on to win the 2023 Leagues Cup final on penalties after tying Nashville 1-1. A bit over a half-year later, their 2-2 draw in Leg 1 of their Concacaf round of 16 series was a solid foundation for a comfortable Leg 2 victory.
Messi’s Individual Magic
The dominance gets even more pronounced when you scan Messi’s individual numbers against the Coyotes.
With his hat trick on Saturday, Messi has now scored 10 times in his seven appearances against Nashville. That’s three more goals than his next-highest total against an MLS opponent (Atlanta United, New England Revolution).
Messi vs. Nashville SC
Appearances: 7
Goals: 10
Goals per 90 min: 1.53
Put another way, Messi is averaging 1.53 goals every 90 minutes against the Coyotes. That’s nearly a half goal better than his overall average of 1.05 goals per 90 minutes of MLS regular season play in 53 total MLS appearances.
And that track record may be particularly important this season because Miami’s fortunes have been more explicitly linked to Messi’s scoring prowess than in 2023 or 2024. The Herons posted a record of 15W-2D-1L when Messi scored in a league game this season. When he didn’t, their record was 4W-6D-6L.
What About Nashville’s Stars?
For Nashville SC, just as worrying as Messi’s prolific record against them will be the relative quiet of their own star duo, Sam Surridge and Hany Mukhtar, when playing against Miami.
Surridge scored his team-best 24th goal in the loss to Miami on Decision Day. But that was only the fourth goal by the duo against the Herons since Messi’s arrival. (Mukhtar also had three goals against the pre-Messi Herons.)
If the Coyotes want any hope of pulling off the upset, they almost certainly will need more against Miami from a duo that has combined for 40 league goals this year, about 69% of Nashville’s total.
