Table of Contents
ToggleIn brief
- Bitcoin stabilized above $105,000 over the weekend, triggering a push toward $109,400.
- Experts say Bitcoin could be forming a local bottom amid softening U.S.-China trade tensions, but remain cautious.
- The end of quantitative tightening and potential rate cuts create a bullish setup for Bitcoin heading into 2026.
Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization as key macroeconomic pressures begin to ease, with experts suggesting the top crypto may be bottoming.
Bitcoin is up nearly 2% over 24 hours, setting a high of $109,405, fueling a minor rally across the broader altcoin market, CoinGecko data shows.
“I think Bitcoin is bottoming here,” Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Research, told Decrypt. “I expect the next move is more likely to be upward rather than downward.”
The potential bullish reversal follows the Fed’s dovish pivot last week, in which Chair Powell signaled that quantitative-tightening may be coming to an end and that interest-rate cuts are on the table.
With the end of QT in sight, risk assets may benefit from a loosening of financial conditions headwinds as liquidity withdrawal slows, or so the thinking goes.
Meanwhile, a softening of the U.S.-China trade war, which previously triggered a historic liquidation cascade earlier in the month, is also expected this week, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng to meet in Malaysia to defuse tensions further.
Sean Dawson, head of research at Dervie, echoed Chung’s sentiment, but cautioned that risks remain.
“This is probably a local bottom. Lower rates push investors up the risk curve into assets like crypto,” Dawson told Decrypt. “However, the risk of escalation in the U.S.-China trade war could cause a further tumble.”
The immediate future for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market hinges on Friday’s upcoming inflation report, though Decrypt was told the outcome of U.S.-China trade negotiations holds a greater sway over the market sentiment.
“Bitcoin is extremely sensitive to these talks,” Dawson said, noting that the largest price moves this year have followed tariff announcements. “Should there be a positive resolution to these fears, we’d likely see a significant upward rally.”
Looking ahead, the Fed’s plan to end quantitative tightening, which involves reducing the central bank’s balance sheet, “will be bullish for Bitcoin,” Dawson said, noting that the return of liquidity creates a more favorable environment for speculative assets.
A quarter-point rate cut is expected ahead for the Fed’s next decisive meeting, scheduled on October 29, according to bond traders.
While a larger-than-expected rate cut would be positive for Bitcoin’s price action, “this would persist and manifest itself on longer time horizons likely by the first quarter of next year,” Dawson added.
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