Government shutdown could cost $14bn, congressional forecaster predicts
The US government shutdown has temporarily slowed the economy, and while most of its ill effects will disappear once funding is reauthorized, between $7bn and $14bn in GDP will not be recovered, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts.
Their prediction underscores the shutdown’s potential for economic damage, which is now on its 29th day. Congress failed to agree on extending funding beyond the end of September, leading federal agencies to curtail their operations, around 700,000 workers to be furloughed and hundreds of thousands of others to continue working without pay.
The CBO predicts that the shutdown will slash real gross domestic product, which has been adjusted for inflation, by between one and two percentage points in the fourth quarter, though much of that damage will be undone whenever funding is restored.
But there will nonetheless be a lingering economic hit, CBO forecasts. If the shutdown were to end today, it would cost $7bn, while if it ended after six weeks, on 12 November, it would cost $11bn. After eight weeks, on 26 November, the toll would be $14bn.
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Updated at 11.49 EDT
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Further to that, millions of poor and disadvantaged Americans could face trouble accessing funds for home heating starting next month due to the government shutdown, lawmakers from both parties and nonprofit groups said on Wednesday.
The shutdown, now in its 29th day, could prevent states from receiving about $3.6bin under the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program, or LIHEAP, run by the US Department of Health and Human Services. The funds help families pay winter heating and summer cooling bills, with about 80% used in the winter months.
States typically receive their allocations in late October or November, and the funds are distributed to households in November and December.
Republican representative Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania called on health secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr to ensure uninterrupted LIHEAP funding during the shutdown.
“No household should have to choose between keeping their homes at safe temperatures, basic healthcare, or having food on the table,” Fitzpatrick said in a letter to Kennedy, calling on HHS to use every available authority and mechanism to maintain LIHEAP operations without interruption and to communicate with states and providers to prevent service gaps that would endanger communities.
Officials in Minnesota and New York have also warned residents that funds may be delayed. The program assisted 1.5 million New York households last year, governor Kathy Hochul’s office said in a statement last week. “Thanks to Washington Republicans’ government shutdown, hundreds of thousands of vulnerable New Yorkers are about to be left in the cold,” she said.
The Trump administration fired LIHEAP staff in April as part of wider cutbacks in the federal government, which also raised concerns about getting funds to states.
Democratic representative Madeleine Dean, also of Pennsylvania, called the situation “unacceptable”. “While the most vulnerable among us pay the price for this shutdown, Republicans seem uninterested in ending it,” Dean posted on X.
Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, said any delays in funding would be difficult for vulnerable Americans, 42 million of whom are also set to lose SNAP food aid, which is set to lapse on Saturday.
“If the shutdown continues, the lives of low-income families, the lives of poor families, in the United States will just become much harder,” Wolfe told Reuters. “A $500 grant for energy assistance might not sound like a lot to a middle-income family, but for a low-income family, that’s what allows them to buy heating oil to get the furnace started.”
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Updated at 13.26 EDT
Schumer ended his press conference by accusing Republicans of using people who rely on Snap “as hostages”.
Replying to a question about whether Democrats should take any responsibility if the food aid benefits ends on Saturday because of the shutdown, as the Trump administration says it will, Schumer replied:
We are saying the Republicans can fund it now, and they’re using these people as hostages, plain and simple … that’s the answer.
He also linked Democrats’s insistence that Snap be funded with Republican’s refusal to negotiate over extending tax credits for Affordable Care Act premiums until the government is reopened:
And by the way, we don’t want to pit health care and food – they do. We think you can have both.
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Schumer said that Senate Democrats would support two different bills, one proposed by a Republican senator, the other by a Democrat, to fund Snap beyond Saturday.
But it is up to Republican Senate majority leader John Thune to hold votes on those, and he said he is not in favor, insisting that Democrats vote for the GOP’s bill to reopen the entire government.
Referring to the Snap proposal from New Mexico Democrat Ben Ray Luján, Thune said on the Senate floor today: “This bill is a cynical attempt to provide political cover for Democrats to allow them to carry on their government shutdown even longer, and we’re not going to let them pick winners and losers. It’s time to fund everybody.”
Republican senator Josh Hawley has proposed similar legislation, which Democrats say they would support, but Thune is not expected to bring it up for a vote.
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Calling Trump ‘heartless’, top Senate Democrat blames president for food aid cut off
Democratic senator minority leader Chuck Schumer is laying into Donald Trump, after his administration announced that it could not continue a crucial food aid program beyond Saturday, because of the government shutdown.
Schumer argues that money is available to continue the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (Snap), otherwise known as food stamps, but Trump refuses to use it.
“For the first time in history, a president, Donald Trump, is refusing to fund Snap during a shutdown,” Schumer told a press conference.
“Forty-two million Americans – hungry children, middle class families who’ve just … lost [their] job, veterans, senior citizens who struggle to pay for their food, all of these people will lose their SNAP benefits, not because the money’s gone, not because it’s not permitted, because Donald Trump ordered it stopped. Donald Trump is a vindictive politician and a heartless man.”
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Las Vegas eyed as host of GOP’s 2026 midterm convention – report
Donald Trump’s advisers are considering hosting his proposed political convention ahead of the 2026 midterms in Las Vegas, the Wall Street Journal reports.
Political parties typically hold conventions ahead of presidential elections every four years, but Trump has floated the idea of a convention ahead of next year’s midterm elections, where the GOP will be defending their majorities in Congress.
They control the House of Representatives by a mere three seats, when all vacancies are filled, and the Senate by the same amount. The party in power has lost control of the House in recent midterms – as Trump did, during his first term in 2018 – and the Democrats are seen as having a good shot of retaking the lower chamber. That would give them expanded powers to investigate his administration, and block much of his legislative agenda.
Las Vegas is the largest city in Nevada, a swing state that Trump became the first Republican to win in two decades last year, when he triumphed over Kamala Harris.
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Updated at 12.42 EDT
Government shutdown could cost $14bn, congressional forecaster predicts
The US government shutdown has temporarily slowed the economy, and while most of its ill effects will disappear once funding is reauthorized, between $7bn and $14bn in GDP will not be recovered, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts.
Their prediction underscores the shutdown’s potential for economic damage, which is now on its 29th day. Congress failed to agree on extending funding beyond the end of September, leading federal agencies to curtail their operations, around 700,000 workers to be furloughed and hundreds of thousands of others to continue working without pay.
The CBO predicts that the shutdown will slash real gross domestic product, which has been adjusted for inflation, by between one and two percentage points in the fourth quarter, though much of that damage will be undone whenever funding is restored.
But there will nonetheless be a lingering economic hit, CBO forecasts. If the shutdown were to end today, it would cost $7bn, while if it ended after six weeks, on 12 November, it would cost $11bn. After eight weeks, on 26 November, the toll would be $14bn.
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Updated at 11.49 EDT
The Senate’s top Democrat, Chuck Schumer, believes that Republicans will back down from their positions as public outrage grows over sharply higher Affordable Care Act (ACA) premiums.
“We are just three days, three days away from open enrollment and three days away from the biggest health care crisis America has seen in a generation,” Schumer said in a speech on the Senate floor.
It’s the start of “window shopping” for the ACA, when enrollees can get a look at prices for health plans, and Schumer predicted that they “are seeing that, due to Republican obstruction, they will end up having to pay tens of thousands of dollars more each year for healthcare, seeing their premiums, triple, quadruple, or more”.
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Updated at 11.50 EDT
The current government shutdown is, in many ways, a continuation of the debate over the Affordable Care Act, which Democrats passed unilaterally in 2010 during Barack Obama’s presidency.
The tax credits that lower premiums for the plans came during Joe Biden’s presidency, and will expire at the end of the year. Democrats now want the GOP to extend them in conjunction with reopening the government.
Republicans have refused that demand, and insisted the government be reopened before the premium issue is addressed. But many Republicans are also pointing to the debate as proof that the Affordable Care Act has not lived up to its promise, though they have yet to resurrect their apparently dormant quest to repeal the law entirely. Here’s Senate majority leader John Thune just now, in a floor speech:
Suffice it to say, as Democrats are now implicitly admitting that Obamacare massively failed, Democrats of course now want to put a bandaid on a gaping wound by extending the Biden Covid bonuses. But, of course, that will do nothing to fix the underlying problem, which is that healthcare costs will continue to spiral under Obamacare.
Throwing $350bn in taxpayer dollars at the problem in the form of enhanced tax credits will do nothing to stop Obamacare premiums from going up by double digits, because that’s what they have been doing. And it will do nothing to improve health care for the majority of Americans who are not – not – on Obamacare health plans, like our seniors, our most vulnerable citizens, and those who get their coverage through their employer.
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No end in sight as US government shutdown hits day 29
The US government shutdown has dragged into its 29th day, with no sign that lawmakers in Congress are anywhere near approving a measure to get federal agencies working again.
The Senate yesterday held its 13th vote on a bill that would fund the government through 21 November, but Democrats blocked its advancement because it does not include funding for their healthcare priorities. The House of Representatives remains out of session on Republican speaker Mike Johnson’s orders, as it has since 19 September. The prolonged recess is seen as a gambit to force Senate Democrats to get on board with the funding proposals, which Republicans passed through the House with almost no Democratic votes before leaving Washington DC.
All signs point to no resolution of this crisis today. While the Senate will take votes, majority leader John Thune has not announced plans to bring the funding bill back up.
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On X, Adam Schiff, one of California’s Democratic senators, criticized acting US attorney Bill Essayli, after a judge found that he was in the Los Angeles-based position illegally.
Schiff wrote:
“Unlawfully serving” in his role. Acting illegally. But left in place? While this Administration continues to replace career professionals with illegitimate political allies eager to do Trump’s bidding, Californians need better relief than this.
Essayli, who is active on X, used the platform to shoot back at the senator:
I do the American People’s bidding at the direction of their duly elected President. That’s how our Constitution works. Try reading and abiding by it sometime.
It wasn’t too dissimilar from the tone taken by Essayli’s boss, attorney general Pam Bondi, when she encountered Schiff at a recent congressional hearing.
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Updated at 10.26 EDT
Back in the United States (since it is well into the night in South Korea), yet another Trump-appointed federal prosecutor has been found to be holding the office illegally. Here’s more, from the Associated Press:
A federal judge disqualified acting US attorney Bill Essayli in Southern California from several cases after concluding Tuesday that the Trump appointee has stayed in the temporary job longer than allowed by law.
US district judge J Michael Seabright disqualified Essayli from supervising the criminal prosecutions in three cases, siding with defense lawyers who argued that his authority expired in July.
“Simply stated: Essayli unlawfully assumed the role of Acting United States Attorney for the Central District of California,” Seabright wrote in his decision. “He has been unlawfully serving in that capacity since his resignation from the interim role on July 29, 2025. Essayli may not perform the functions and duties of the United States Attorney as Acting United States Attorney. He is disqualified from serving in that role.”
The decision represents another setback to the Trump administration’s effort to extend handpicked acting US attorneys beyond the 120-day limit set by federal law. A judge ruled in September that acting US attorney of Nevada, Sigal Chattah, was serving in her position illegally. Another judge disqualified acting US attorney in New Jersey, Alina Habba, in August.
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White House confirms Trump-Xi meeting on Thursday
Donald Trump will meet with Chinese president Xi Xinping on Thursday in South Korea, the White House has confirmed.
The meeting will take place at 11am local in Gyeongju, South Korea – which is 10pm in Washington DC.
It’ll be their first encounter since Trump returned to the White House to begin his second term, and there’s much to discuss – trade being among the top issues. Here’s more on that:
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Here are some photos coming through on the wires of Donald Trump at the APEC meeting in South Korea.
Donald Trump posts for a photo with (from left) Thailand’s prime minister Anutin Charnvirakul, Singapore’s prime minister Lawrence Wong, Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese, Donald Trump, South Korean president Lee Jae Myung, Vietnam’s president Luong Cuong, New Zealand prime minister Christopher Luxon and Canadian prime minister Mark Carney in a photo session during a dinner event in Gyeongju, South Korea on Wednesday 29 October. Photograph: Mark Schiefelbein/APDonald Trump toasts state leaders during a dinner event hosted by South Korean president Lee Jae Myung. Photograph: Mark Schiefelbein/APDonald Trump speaks during the APEC summit. Photograph: Ng Han Guan/APSouth Korean president Lee Jae Myung, right, looks on as US president Donald Trump signs the guestbook at the Gyeongju national museum in Gyeongju, South Korea. Photograph: Presidential Press Office Handout/EPAShare
Donald Trump fires all six members of independent federal agency responsible for reviewing White House ballroom, say reports
Adam Gabbatt
Donald Trump has fired all six members of an independent federal agency responsible for reviewing his controversial White House ballroom and planned ‘Arc de Trump’ in Washington DC, according to reports.
The Washington Post reported that all members of the Commission of Fine Arts were dismissed on Tuesday.
“On behalf of President Donald J. Trump, I am writing to inform you that your position as a member of the Commission of Fine Arts is terminated, effective immediately,” read an email sent to one of the commissioners, which was obtained by the Post.
Read the full story here:
ShareLauren Gambino
The US Senate on Tuesday approved a measure that would terminate Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on Brazilian imports, including coffee, beef and other products, in a rare bipartisan show of opposition to the president’s trade war.
The legislation passed in a 52-48 vote, with five Republicans – senators Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine, Rand Paul of Kentucky, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and the former Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky – joining all Democrats in favor. The vote took place on day 28 of the federal government shutdown with both sides at loggerheads over spending legislation.
The resolution, led by Senator Tim Kaine, a Democrat of Virginia, would overturn the national emergency that Trump has declared to justify the levies, though it is all but certain to stall in the US House, where the Republican-controlled chamber acted to pre-emptively shut down any attempt to block the president’s tariffs. In the unlikely event the measure were to reach the president’s desk, it would meet Trump’s veto.
“Tariffs are a tax on American consumers. Tariffs are a tax on American businesses. And they are a tax that is imposed by a single person: Donald J Trump,” Kaine said in a floor speech.
While Congressional Republicans have largely declined to rein in the president, Tuesday’s vote revealed an underlying discontent with Trump’s tariffs.
“Tariffs make both building and buying in America more expensive. The economic harms of trade wars are not the exception to history, but the rule,” Republican Mitch McConnell said in a statement on Tuesday. “And no cross-eyed reading of Reagan will reveal otherwise.”
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Maanvi Singh
The Trump administration remains barred from deploying the national guard in Portland, Oregon, following a federal appeals court ruling.
The ninth circuit court of appeals agreed on Tuesday that it would rehear a case over the president’s authority with a broader court of 11 judges. The appeals court also vacated a ruling from a three-judge panel last week that sided with the Trump administration.
The order is the latest development in a long legal saga over whether Donald Trump has the authority and justification to deploy national guard forces in Portland. The Oregon city has had about 200 federalized guard members in limbo since late September when Trump attempted to mobilize in response to months of protests there.
The federal government has argued that federal officials working at the ICE facility in south Portland were under attack, while city and state officials argue that local officers have control of the situation.
In defiance of Trump’s characterization of Portland as “war ravaged”, locals have been sharing videos of the city’s lush hiking trails and thriving food scene, and drawing up plans for Emergency Naked Bike Ride against “the militarization of our city”.
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Trump presented with golden crown in South Korea
South Korea welcomed US president Donald Trump on Wednesday with a replica gold crown and awarded him with the ‘Grand Order of Mugunghwa’, the country’s highest decoration, the presidential office said.
US and South Korean warplanes escorted Air Force One on approach, and on the tarmac a South Korean military band greeted Trump with a rendition of ‘YMCA’ and guns fired a salute.
Lee is hoping to win concessions from Trump in drawn-out negotiations aimed at lowering US tariffs on South Korea, and has wooed the US president by praising his outreach to North Korea.
Lee’s office said that in recognition of Trump’s role as a “peacemaker” on the Korean peninsula, he was awarded the ‘Grand Order of Mugunghwa’, which is named after South Korea’s national flower, a pink hibiscus also known as the Rose of Sharon in English.
“I’d like to wear it right now,” Trump said when presented with the glittering award. A South Korean official said he was the first US president to receive the honour.
President Donald Trump shakes hands with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung as he receives a gift of a gold crown and an award of the Grand Order of Mugunghwa, not seen, during a high honor ceremony at the Gyeongju National Museum in Gyeongju, South Korea, Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025. Photograph: Mark Schiefelbein/APShare
President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he believed the North Korea situation will improve.
Trump made the comment at a dinner hosted by the South Korean president Lee Jae Myung.
The US president was visiting South Korea to join other heads of state and business leaders attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.
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Trump’s South Korea visit met with protests amid trade talks
Hello and welcome to the US politics live blog. I am Tom Ambrose and I’ll be bringing you the latest news lines over the next few hours.
We start with the news that progressive civic groups and opposition politicians held anti-US protests in Gyeongju on Wednesday as Donald Trump arrived for events related to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.
The protesters accused Trump of imposing unfair tariffs and pressuring South Korea to increase defense spending. Some staged a performance depicting the US president bound with rope, while others waved red cards and chanted slogans such as ‘No kings, Trump not welcome’ and ‘No to APEC’.
Kwon Young-kook, leader of the Justice Party, criticized APEC for “catering to powerful nations instead of promoting genuine economic growth”.
South Korean protesters shout slogans near the meeting venue of Donald Trump and South Korean president, Lee Jae Myung, during a rally against Trump’s visit to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Gyeongju, South Korea, 29 October 2025. Photograph: Jeon Heon-Kyun/EPA
It came as Trump and South Korean president, Lee Jae Myung, finalised details of their fraught trade deal at a summit in South Korea on Wednesday, and the US president also sounded an optimistic note about a looming summit with China’s Xi Jinping.
“We made our deal, pretty much finalized it,” Trump said at a dinner with Lee and other regional leaders on the sidelines of an Asia Pacific forum.
Trump also said his meeting with Xi on Thursday was likely to be three to four hours long and he expected the talks to go well. The meeting is expected to focus on trying to strike a trade war truce.
In other developments:
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The Republican-led US Senate has passed a measure that would terminate Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on Brazilian imports, including coffee, beef and other products, in a rare bipartisan show of opposition to the president’s trade war. The vote passed 52-48. The resolution was led by Senator Tim Kaine, a Democrat of Virginia, and seeks to overturn the national emergency that Trump has declared to justify the levies.
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A federal judge has ordered Gregory Bovino, a senior border patrol official leading the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown in Chicago, to appear in federal court each weekday to report on the day’s incidents in an exceptional bid to impose oversight over the government’s militarized raids in the city. The order came after a terse hearing on Tuesday morning.
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A federal judge disqualified acting US attorney Bill Essayli in Southern California from several cases after concluding Tuesday that the Trump appointee has stayed in the temporary job longer than allowed by law. US district judge J Michael Seabright disqualified Essayli from supervising the criminal prosecutions in three cases, siding with defense lawyers who argued that his authority expired in July.
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The US government shutdown stretched into its 28th day with no resolution in sight on Tuesday, as the Senate remained deadlocked over spending legislation even as a crucial food aid program teeters on the brink of exhausting its funding.
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The Trump administration is planning to revamp the leadership of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), according to reports, as the government seeks to intensify its mass deportation efforts. Multiple news outlets have reported that the government intends to reassign multiple directors of ICE field offices in the coming days, potentially replacing them with border patrol officials.
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Updated at 08.59 EDT
