The Global Methane Status Report, released on the sidelines of COP30 in Belém on Tuesday, found that despite growing political attention since the launch of the Global Methane Pledge (GMP) in 2021, current measures fall far short of the pledged 30 per cent cut in emissions from 2020 levels by 2030.
Produced by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC), the assessment concluded that proven and largely low-cost technologies could deliver the required reductions if deployed at scale. Methane, responsible for roughly a third of today’s warming, has more than doubled in atmospheric concentration since pre-industrial times.
The report said global methane emissions reached about 352 million tonnes in 2020 and are projected to rise to 369 million tonnes in 2030 under existing legislation, an increase that would drive additional warming and lead to tens of thousands of early deaths and significant crop losses.
The projected 2030 level, however, is now 14 million tonnes lower than earlier forecasts, thanks to new waste regulations in Europe and North America and slower growth in natural gas markets since 2020.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Methane Action Plans submitted by mid-2025 could deliver an 8 per cent cut below 2020 levels by 2030, according to the report, though only a quarter of what is needed to meet the GMP target.
More than 80 per cent of possible 2030 reductions can be achieved at low cost, said the report, adding that the energy sector alone accounts for 72 per cent of mitigation potential, through measures such as leak detection and repair, plugging abandoned oil and gas wells, and capturing wasted gas. Waste and agriculture together make up the remaining potential.
The report also estimated that all cost-effective fossil fuel mitigation in 2030 could be deployed for just 2 per cent of the sector’s 2023 income.
One of the “most immediate and effective steps”
About 72 per cent of global mitigation potential lies in G20+ economies, where emissions could fall by 36 per cent from 2020 levels if existing technical measures are fully implemented. The G20+ grouping includes the G20 countries as well as several other major methane-emitting economies with significant mitigation potential. But progress hinges on stronger monitoring, transparent reporting and a major scale-up in finance, according to UNEP.
UNEP executive director Inger Andersen said methane mitigation is “one of the most immediate and effective steps” to slow warming, adding that cutting emissions would also boost food security by reducing crop losses.
Julie Dabrusin, Canada’s environment minister and co-convener of the GMP, said countries must “drive faster, deeper methane cuts”, noting that each tonne reduced delivers benefits for air quality and economic resilience.
Achieving the GMP target requires implementing the full set of maximum technically feasible reductions by 2030, which could lower emissions by 32 per cent from 2020 levels and avoid 0.2°C of warming by 2050, according to the report.
Beyond 2030, technical measures alone will not deliver the reductions needed for 1.5°C-aligned pathways. UNEP believes deeper changes in energy, agriculture and waste systems, including healthier diets and reduced food waste, will be required to halve methane emissions by mid-century.
“The choices made in the next five years will determine whether the world seizes this opportunity,” the report warned.
