I have found some of the good faith conversation around the increase in setpieces and direct play in the Premier League this season interesting. It is natural that football moves in trends and cycles, some of which last longer than others. (Remember that three-month period in 2016-17 when everyone started playing a back three and promptly stopped again?)
Some have discussed how healthy the indexing of setpieces is for the game as an entertainment product. I don’t think, as Arsenal fans, we should be overly sensitive about the good faith conversations around this (really, the bad faith conversations and concern trolling ought to be ignored). Football often changes or adapts its rules in response to optimisation.
The backpass law, introduced in 1992, is a good example of this. Teams had begun to run down the clock constantly passing back to the goalkeeper to the detriment of the product and the back pass law was an outstanding innovation that improved the game no end. So I understand when people ask the question as to whether increased emphasis on setplays is becoming a detriment to the game.
Clive and Elliot had a very good conversation about it on this patreon podcast earlier this. They talked about how teams looking more intently at setpieces as a direct response to an increase in low and mid defensive blocks and how disincentivising setpieces simply incentivises more defensive play.
At some point, surely teams are going to start thinking about how they try to limit the number of corners and free-kicks they give to Arsenal and that might involve engaging higher up the pitch. Per FBRef, Arsenal averaged 1.89 shot creating actions per 90 from deadballs last season and that is up to 2.16 this season.
It’s also worth noting that the schedule has a big part to play in this. The ever increasing game load means there is less time for coaching pattern play; players are locked into a cycle of play and recover, play and recover. Setpieces can be coached reasonably efficiently and I think Arsenal’s proficiency with them has caused other teams to take them more seriously.
I don’t think Arsenal’s proficiency at setpieces is any more an ‘issue’ for them than Liverpool being reliant on Mo Salah or City on Erling Haaland for goals. Having a regular, repeatable route to goal is a good thing, especially since Arsenal probably do lack an attacker who can put up the sort of numbers the aforementioned have been able to over many years.
However, I certainly think that Arsenal need to become better at creating chances in open play if they are to become the champions elect many have already appointed them. The data tells you what your eyes tell you, in recent weeks Arsenal have struggled to break teams down in open play and that is a wrinkle that needs ironing. I think there are a number of explanations for this.
First and foremost, teams really do tend to sit in against Arsenal. The team’s outstanding defensive record is mainly due to work rate, out of possession organisation and a dominant, boa constrictor style of play. It is also because opponents have started to sit so deep that they simply can’t threaten Arsenal on the counterattack.
I suspect the lack of open play fluency is largely down to availability. After the Carabao Cup victory over Brighton, Mikel Arteta said, ‘we have a lot of injured players in the front line, so we could see we have the depth. But today we were struggling with some positions already and it’s October.’
Havertz, Madueke, Jesus, Odegaard and Martinelli were unavailable for that game, Saka has played a full 90 minutes on just three occasions so far this season. That is a lot of talent missing. The summer signings of Eberechi Eze and Viktor Gyokeres have reduced the impact of those absences but these are new players learning to play in a new team, often playing together as a sort of 10 and 9 combination.
A glance over at the defending champions tells you that attackers need time to acclimatise to a new team, regardless of their quality. Arsenal have probably had to overplay Gyokeres and I was not surprised at all that Arteta kept him wrapped in cotton wool for the entirety of the Brighton game with three away games in seven days on the horizon.
A scenario where Havertz and Gyokeres (and Jesus?) can game share and Madueke can eat up some of those minutes Saka has not been able to manage recently would surely lead to greater threat, not least from the bench. It’s probably not a great surprise that long-serving, embedded attackers like Trossard and Martinelli have produced well so far this season.
I also think the profile of some of the players Arsenal have missing is having an impact. At the end of the last international break I wrote a piece suggesting we should not be blasé about the absence of Martin Odegaard. I have a pet theory that Arsenal pretty much always need at least one of Havertz or Odegaard in the team, as I set out in that blog.
‘I think Odegaard’s absence is all the more problematic when Kai Havertz is also absent. Not only do I think Havertz would have been an option in Odegaard’s position- as he was when the captain had an ankle injury last season- but he is also a ‘two way’ player whose on and off the ball application are something close to equal.’
Odegaard and Havertz are connective tissue players and I just don’t think that Arsenal ‘flow’ as well without them, especially in the case of Odegaard who is so important in every phase of the build-up. Arsenal finished the 1-0 victory over Crystal Palace with a frontline of Trossard, Martinelli and Gyokeres with Merino in behind.
They are all valuable players but they are also all, more or less, ‘final action’ type players, the combination of those four lacks a little lubrication, if you get my meaning. Eze’s winning goal in that game shows you his quality but, also, at this stage I think Eze is a ‘moments’ player (which is also very valuable) but he doesn’t have anything like the minute-to-minute involvement that players like Odegaard and Havertz have.
In short, I think it is true that Arsenal aren’t ‘flowing’ in open play as much as we would like. I also think that issue is fixable with better health in attack and the continuing integration of new players. The Champions League away victory at Athletic Club in September saw Arsenal field a front three made entirely of summer signings. I think that ‘flow’ will return but I also think it needs to return soon.
