As the world watched the impressive display of Chinese armed forces parade through Tiananmen Square on September 3, thoughts turned to the person in charge of it all.
Who are we dealing with? Is this a replay of the Nuremberg Rally of 1934, orchestrated by Adolf Hitler, that was a preparation for war? Or is it a warning by Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), to potential adversaries, such as the United States, not to underestimate the capabilities of China?
Xi, now 72, is the son of a mid-level CCP member who was purged when Xi was a teenager. Sent to a remote area, the family was reduced to life in a yaodong — an earthen structure not unlike a cave. Despite this adversity, young Xi was accepted as a worker-peasant-soldier student and studied chemical engineering and law.
However, his real ambition was a career in the CCP. Starting as a party secretary in a small province, he rose through the party hierarchy to membership in the Politburo in 2007 and elevation to General Secretary in 2012.
He frequently recounts the Century of Humiliation suffered by China from European colonization and wars with Japan, including the invasion that began in 1937, which claimed tens of millions of lives. He vows that this will never happen again.
For the world’s remaining uninitiated who still have the obsolete illusion of China as a country of bamboo and straw, the Tiananmen Square review of advanced armed forces on parade dispelled any doubt about China’s current power.
Ten thousand troops of the People’s Liberation Army and Navy, including units of its cyber-space command, marched past a review of senior representatives from 26 nations — from Turkey in the west, through Iran, Russia, the -stans of southern Asia, to North Korea in the east.
Hypersonic weapons, drones of various capabilities, laser-powered air defense systems, and air, surface, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles rolled past the reviewing stand where Xi was flanked by Putin of Russia and Kim of North Korea.
Overhead, the J-35A jet fighters swept by as an answer to the F-35 in the US arsenal. A Navy variant of the J-35 is forthcoming for the expanding carrier force. The Chinese Navy has expanded rapidly in recent years, made possible by four major shipyards that have produced a fleet now rivaling the US Navy. A new laser-armed air defense cruiser, the LY-1, is designed to defend against carrier aircraft and attacking drones.
An attempt to make a full invasion of Taiwan could result in a non-nuclear war between China and the United States. In any sustained campaign, supplies of oil to China would be cut off, and that could quickly result in severe economic and operational stress in China.
The defenses against an amphibious invasion present particular difficulties for an invader, and forces several times those of the defenders are needed for success. The 21-mile Dover Strait in the English Channel has been a formidable barrier against invasions of Great Britain for many centuries. The Taiwan Strait, 81 miles at its narrowest, could pose a similar difficulty for a Taiwan invasion.
However, all is not sweetness and light for China. China’s economy is heavily dependent on international trade. In particular, China has a major vulnerability in the need for oil imports. According to Bloomberg LP, the expanding economy, both government and civilian, consumes oil currently at a rate of sixteen million barrels per day (bpd), up from eleven million ten years ago.
China’s own oil production is limited to about five million bpd. Two pipelines, one recently expanded, contribute less than one million bpd. Oil imported from Venezuela has been increasing over the past five years and now accounts for about one million bpd. The remaining nine million bpd is transported across the Indian Ocean from the countries of the Persian Gulf and Russia.
In the event of war, submarines and other weapon systems operating between the Gulf and the Strait of Malacca, and in the western Pacific, would be major threats to this supply. China has an oil reserve of only one to two months, and given the excessive and growing demand for oil, it is unlikely to build larger reserves.
To move away from dependence on oil, China is shifting to electric power throughout its economy. This is nowhere more obvious than in the automotive industry. According to myNEWS, China is the largest light vehicle market in the world with annual sales of over 31 million units. The United States is second at 15 million.
In view of its dependence on oil, China has moved aggressively to convert its automotive industry to electric. In 2024, the percentage of all-electric or hybrid cars sold reached 51%, up from 36% in the previous year. However, the growing petrochemical industry has offset any reduction in the consumption of oil.
The energy source to produce the enormous amount of electricity required for all transportation requirements, other sectors of the government and civilian economy, the increasing demand of electronics and the massive data centers under construction comes primarily from the vast reserves of coal in China.
According to the Institute for Energy Research, China currently consumes 4.5 billion tons of coal annually, or 50.5% of world consumption. This is nine times the consumption of coal in the United States.
Although China is a leader in the development of renewable energy, its dependence on coal and imported oil will continue for many years. Meanwhile, the centrally planned economy has made some miscalculations recently that are causing financial difficulties.
Xi has regularly made threatening statements about integrating Taiwan into China.
Chinese air and naval forces have taken aggressive actions involving Taiwan and other nations on the periphery of the South China Sea. Xi’s demands regarding Taiwan could lead to a blockade of Taiwan, but this would likely lead to a combination of sanctions and shipping slowdowns, including oil imports, to match the pressure placed on Taiwan.
A blockade of Taiwan could unify opposition against China, similar to the response to the Soviet Union in the Berlin Blockade of 1948-1949. In the Berlin case, a unified Europe and the United States confronted the blockade, and the Soviets withdrew the blockade after a year.
Despite all of these difficulties for China, if the downward trend of the armed forces of the United States relative to China continues, and China clearly would prevail in a fight over Taiwan, China could be tempted to cow Taiwan with a blockade, or even an invasion.
Conflict in the western Pacific would be fought primarily by naval forces, and the US Navy currently is far behind the capabilities it needs to contain China. However, if this trend can be reversed and the costs of armed conflict become dominant, the advantages of mutually beneficial economic arrangements, to include Taiwan, would outweigh the costs of blockade or war in the Taiwan Strait and the western Pacific.
US President Donald Trump’s current plan is to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in South Korea later in October. There are strong indications of a one-on-one meeting with Xi at the APEC meeting. Xi stated on September 3 that the world has a choice between peace or war, win-win or zero-sum.
But on September 27, a news article in the Wall Street Journal stated that Xi is tying improved trade agreements to the United States with opposing Taiwanese independence. A loss of Taiwanese autonomy effectively moves Taiwan toward greater control by the Xi government of China.
An agreement with China regarding Taiwan can be expected to follow the example of Hong Kong. The Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984 promised “one country, two systems” for fifty years, or 2047, following the 1997 handover of Hong Kong.
Incursions on the rights of Hong Kong were violated almost immediately by China beginning in 1997, and in 2020, Beijing imposed a National Security Law, making any semi-autonomy act a crime. The exploitation of the agreement with Hong Kong shows that the same aggressive moves can be expected with regard to any agreement involving Taiwan.
If the Taiwan issue can be dealt with effectively, and in the absence of armed conflict, economic benefits for the United States could coincide with China’s long-term stated economic development plans. Xi has moved his economy toward more doctrinaire communism, and the long-term result may come down to a comparison between a centrally planned Chinese economy and the market-driven economy of the United States.
Dale Jenkins is a former US Navy officer who served on a destroyer in the Pacific, and for a time was home-ported in Yokosuka, Japan. While on active duty, he was awarded the Navy/Marine Corps Expeditionary Medal. Dale is also senior advisor to Americans for a Stronger Navy. His acclaimed book “Diplomats and Admirals” may be purchased here.
This article was originally published on Dale Jenkins’ website and is republished here with permission.
