The Asian superpower and the 27-member economic and political union missed a February deadline to submit new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations, which set out how much a country will cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, and will be used to assess global progress towards averting disastrous levels of warming. As of 2025, only 22 countries have submitted updated NDCs.
“We still don’t have indices from countries responsible for about 80 per cent of global emissions reduction potential, so all eyes are on China, the European Union and other G20 economies in the weeks ahead, and these announcements will be crucial,” said Robinson in a press briefing organised by the WRI ahead of COP30.
The NDCs of the world’s largest emitters will also determine whether global pledges of past climate summits will be met, said Robinson.
At COP 26, world leaders promised to end deforestation by 2030, while a global agreement to triple renewable energy capacity by the same period was made at COP28. China and the European Union were among the signatories to the forests and land use pact but the Asian superpower did not join the energy pledge.
However, Robinson said even if the world’s biggest emitters release ambitious NDCs, setting targets will not be enough to put the world on a 1.5 degree pathway.
“NDC goals will need to be embedded in national economic strategies. No country in the world has figured out yet how to get them onto a new economic pathway that is good for growth, jobs, development, and nature. This will be the priority in the period ahead,” she said.
US absence will not hamper COP30
Since submitting its new NDCs in December, the US announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement soon after.
David Waskow, director of WRI’s International Climate Initiative said the absence of the world’s second largest emitter from COP30 will not “hamper what is happening globally at this point”, especially with China continuing to be an anchor, while the EU is still aiming for substantial emissions reductions in the 2030.
Apart from China, large emerging economies like Brazil, Indonesia, and South Africa have surfaced to show their “enhanced geopolitical influence” even in the climate and development space, said Ani Dasgupta, president and chief executive of WRI, in the same briefing.
“They recognise their future is in the green economy. There is low carbon energy progressing in these countries, maybe not fast enough, not linear, but it’s happening,” Dasgupta said.
He cited how China reported early this year a one percentage point decrease in its carbon emissions for the first time because of its massive investments in renewables.
Electricity supply from new wind, solar and nuclear capacity was enough to cut coal-powered output even as demand surged, whereas previous declines were due to weak growth.
China’s massive renewable energy expansion involves an investment of about US$625 billion in 2024, which accounted for 31 per cent of the global clean energy investment total of approximately US$2 trillion. This spending covers wind, solar, battery storage, and grid investments.
In the first half of 2025, China added 212 gigawatts (GW) of solar and 51 GW of wind capacity, showcasing its aggressive push toward 1,200 GW of combined solar and wind capacity by 2030 as part of its plan to achieve 80 per cent power from non-fossil sources by 2060.
