The Balkans are once again at a crossroads between truth and manipulation, democracy and authoritarianism. As nationalist leaders sharpen their rhetoric and elections loom across the region, Bosnia and Herzegovina stands at the epicentre of a geopolitical storm. What unfolds here is part of a long-game strategy to redraw political and ideological boundaries under the banner of the so-called “Serbian World” – all in the deep shadows of the “Russian World.”
Bosnia and Herzegovina – a hybrid destabilization Lab
Bosnia and Herzegovina has become the ultimate testing ground for the “Serbian World” – a laboratory of hybrid destabilisation where the balance between peace and collapse hangs by a thread every single day. Republika Srpska (RS) has emerged as its most dangerous instrument – a weapon of destabilisation, and potentially, of disintegration.
On 25 October Republika Srpska holds a referendum rejecting the authority of Bosnia’s state-level courts and the Central Election Commission. If it passes, the RS president Milorad Dodik will proclaim it as “the will of the people,” framing secessionist defiance as democratic expression. Beneath that populist theatre lies a direct assault on the constitutional order established by the Dayton Peace Agreement – the cornerstone of the fragile peace that ended the bloodiest war in Europe since 1945.
What we are witnessing is not mere defiance, but the deliberate unmaking of a state – methodical, political, and perilously close to completion
Only weeks later, the early presidential election on 23 November will test whether Dodik’s Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (Serbian: Savez nezavisnih socijaldemokrata – SNSD) can maintain its grip or whether a fragmented opposition can challenge entrenched control. Yet the real question is whether democratic competition can still exist in an entity defined by authoritarian capture and dependence on Moscow.
Receive the best of the independent European journalism straight to your inbox every Thursday
Meanwhile, Republika Srpska already functions as a parallel state. It rejects state-level institutions, operates its own policing and judicial systems, and governs as if Sarajevo were a foreign capital. Each unilateral act strikes at the constitutional fabric of Bosnia, transforming it into a confederation – to say the least. The Dayton framework, once the foundation of peace, is now treated as an obstacle by those determined to rewrite borders through manipulation. What we are witnessing is not mere defiance, but the deliberate unmaking of a state – methodical, political, and perilously close to completion.
The Western impasse
As the crisis deepens, the United States and the European Union are once again being drawn into a far too familiar role: mediators in a conflict they believed they had resolved. But the pattern of “stabilocracy” has failed. Every concession made in the name of short-term calm has emboldened those who profit from instability.
With figures close to U.S. President Donald Trump regaining influence in Washington, Dodik and his patrons in Belgrade and Moscow may soon find new political cover. Even a silent nod from Washington could be interpreted as permission – a devastating signal of retreat from the post-Dayton commitment that has sustained Bosnia’s unity and prevented renewed conflict for nearly thirty years.
Bosnia is a mirror of Europe’s vulnerabilities. It shows how fragile peace becomes when truth is relativized, institutions are hollowed out, and democracy is left undefended. The “Serbian World” and its ideological “mother”, the “Russian World”, do not need armies to win. They thrive on silence, fatigue, and the illusion that peace can survive without justice.
The lesson is clear: hybrid warfare begins with disbelief and ends with disintegration. Bosnia is the epicentre – and the warning.
