HomeUS & Canada NewsAverage wage increases expected to decline for a third year in 2026

Average wage increases expected to decline for a third year in 2026


Canadian employers are planning smaller wage increases for the third consecutive year in a row, according to a recent report by actuarial consulting firm Eckler. 

After surveying more than 500 Canadian employers from various sectors, the firm found that employers are expecting to give base salary increases of 3.3 per cent in 2026. This is lower than the average base salary increases seen in Canada this year, which sits at 3.4 per cent. 

Chris Roberts, economic policy director for the Canadian Labour Congress, said wage increase projections of this sort can’t confirm exactly how wages will change in the next year but the report does highlight a concern workers have long been aware of. 

“There is no question that the job market in Canada is deteriorating rather rapidly, and has been for some time. We’ve seen young people, new labor market entrants and newcomers to Canada suffering the worst aspects of that,” Roberts said. “Given the trade pressures facing Canadian industry and other forces, there’s no question that Canada is going into a period of subdued growth at best, and possibly stagnation or negative growth.” 

The Ecklers report predicts different wage increases by region and sector. Health and education are predicted to see a 2.6 per cent wage increase, making it the sector expecting the smallest raises in 2026. 

Roberts said the upcoming federal budget could affect employment and wages even further because it threatens to cut program spending which would affect public service employment.

“The federal government’s forthcoming budget is not going to counteract those forces leading towards lower growth. If anything, they will reinforce the general trend towards softer labour markets, and usually that means slower wage growth,” Roberts said. “I am worried about the ability of average wages to exceed inflation into the next period, because there are still inflationary factors tending to drive up the cost of living.” 

Roberts said these conditions have galvanized many workers to take to the streets for their rights.

“The Air Canada flight attendants are a good example of that,” he said. “A group of predominantly women courageously fought very low pay for entry level flight attendants and unpaid work. They defied the order from the minister and the Industrial Relations Board to press their concerns.”

The militancy of workers as they fight for fair deals has been seen in other workplaces as well. Since the beginning of September, Canada has seen the start of province-wide public sector strikes in B.C., Alberta and Ontario. Roberts said these job actions demonstrate the increasing militancy of the labour movement as their wages fail to keep pace with inflation. 

“We’re likely to see, in both the public sector and private sector, continued militancy and the desire to keep up with the rising cost of living,” he said.

Roberts highlighted that non-unionized workers may need to prepare for a tougher battle as they can’t use bargaining as a tool to push back against stagnating wages. However, now is an opportunity for all workers to unite against deteriorating living standards for workers. While the labour market outlook may be gloomy, Roberts said, organized labour is rising up against it.

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