Voters in Virginia and New Jersey head to the polls Tuesday to decide on their next governors, days after Barack Obama stopped in both battlegrounds to boost the Democratic candidates. But the Republican Party’s biggest voice—President Donald Trump—has largely stayed out of both races.
Unlike previous election cycles, where Trump barnstormed the states with the hottest races and stumped for the Republicans, Trump didn’t hold any in-person campaign events for either state’s gubernatorial contender—Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears or New Jersey’s Jack Ciattarelli. On Monday night, Trump was scheduled to join virtual campaign “tele-rallies” for both campaigns from Washington. He also posted on his social media site Truth Social about the races late Monday, urging voters in both states to back the Republicans and describing a “vote for the Democrats” as “a DEATH WISH!”
The President’s approval ratings have hovered just above 40% in polling by Gallup in recent months, making him a potential liability in general elections in states like Virginia and New Jersey, where both parties have won statewide races in recent years. A CNN poll released Monday found Trump with a 37% approval rating, the worst of his second term.
Douglas Heye, a longtime Republican strategist, says Trump dropping into either state to hold a rally at this moment stands to hurt a Republican candidate more than help. “The Democrats are trying to make this a referendum on Trump, up and down the ticket, given his poll numbers. Having a big rally would only magnify that,” Heye says.
The election results on Tuesday are sure to be closely watched for signs of which party is better positioned for next year’s midterm elections, which could upset the balance of power on Capitol Hill. Republicans narrowly control both the House and Senate. But Democrats in particular are hopeful that voters will be frustrated enough with Trump’s actions that they’ll vote in enough Democrats hand House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries the chamber’s gavel, ushering in two years of Democratic oversight of Trump’s policies and investigations into actions Trump has taken that have stepped on powers delegated to Congress by the Constitution.
Read more: What to Watch For in NYC and Other Battlegrounds as Election Results Come In
Political analysts are watching both gubernatorial races for signs of Democratic weakness. In New Jersey, recent polls have shown a tightening race between Ciattarelli and Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill. Ciattarelli has said New Jersey will have better support from the White House if he’s elected, and has given Trump’s second term an “A” grade. But he has been careful to not fully embrace Trump, taking some differing positions on immigration and energy. “A relationship is important. That doesn’t mean we don’t disagree,” Ciattarelli told TIME in an interview.
In Virginia, Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is leading in polls over Earle-Sears, who Trump has given tepid support. The state’s gubernatorial elections typically come a year after the presidential campaign, and historically, the party that won the White House loses Virginia’s Executive Mansion the next year.
Far more than Ciattarelli, Trump has distanced himself from Earle-Sears’ campaign. When Trump spoke at a celebration of the U.S. Navy’s 250th anniversary at Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia on Oct. 5, Trump didn’t mention Earle-Sears, the state’s current lieutenant governor and a former Marine. At an Oval Office event on drug pricing on Oct. 13, Trump welcomed Virginia’s outgoing Governor Glenn Youngkin and wished Virginia Republicans “good luck with the upcoming election” but didn’t mention Earle-Sears’s name.
Trump has given more public attention in recent weeks to the race for mayor in his hometown of New York City, where Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, is leading in polls against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Republican Curtis Silwa. In a 60 Minutes interview that aired Sunday, Trump effectively endorsed Cuomo, a Democrat who is running as an independent after losing the party’s nomination to Mamdani.
“I’m not a fan of Cuomo one way or the other, but if it’s gonna be between a bad Democrat and a Communist, I’m gonna pick the bad Democrat all the time, to be honest with you,” Trump said on the program.
On Monday evening, Trump went a step further, posting on social media that Cuomo was the only viable option to beat Mamdani, who he said would give the city “ZERO chance of success, or even survival!”
“Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice,” Trump wrote in the post. “You must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it, Mamdani is not!”
