After just six months in power, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition is facing infighting, policy deadlock and sliding poll ratings, undermining its efforts to take on the rising far right.
It marks a difficult start for the conservative politician who ran on bold pledges of reviving the stagnant economy, overhauling the threadbare military and toughening immigration policy after years of drift under the previous government.
In German post-war politics, “there has never been such widespread dissatisfaction with a government in such a short period of time,” Manfred Güllner, director of the Forsa polling institute, told AFP.
For Germans who hoped for more decisive leadership after the last government’s collapse, “their expectations have been dashed,”he said.
The winners of February’s general election, Merz’s centre-right CDU/CSU bloc now find themselves neck-and-neck in the polls with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which came second in the poll and is now the largest opposition party.
Merz’s junior coalition partners, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) of ex-chancellor Olaf Scholz, have seen their popularity slide further after a terrible election performance, and now sit around 13-15% in polls.
“It is clear that many citizens are dissatisfied or disappointed with the government’s work so far,” Roderich Kiesewetter, an MP from Merz’s Christian Democrats (CDU), told AFP.
The government appeared to be “focusing only on migration instead of the economy, education and security,” he said.
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Increasing tensions
There have been increasing tensions between the ruling parties in Berlin since Merz failed to be elected chancellor in the first round of voting in parliament in early May, a first in post-war Germany.
In July, they were unable to agree on the appointment of three judges to the constitutional court, with the conservatives considering the Social Democrats’ candidate too left-wing.
A group of young conservative MPs revolted over a pension reform proposal, which had already been adopted by the cabinet, arguing that it burdened future generations.
Meanwhile, an overhaul of the country’s military service system, which was supposed to demonstrate Germany’s leadership in NATO in the face of the Russian threat, has turned into a stalemate over whether to bring back a limited form of conscription.
Now Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, a close confidant of Merz, is under fire from conservatives for expressing reservations about the possibility of sending back Syrian refugees living in Germany.
With their support so low after the February polls, the CDU/CSU and the SPD “are finding it more difficult to reach compromises,” Aiko Wagner, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin, told AFP. Both sides fear they “will become even weaker among their own” supporters if they do, said Wagner.
Tough migration rhetoric
The coalition’s own struggles are making it more difficult for Merz to counter the rise of the AfD, which he declared as his party’s “main opponent” ahead of five regional elections scheduled for 2026.
Merz has used increasingly tough rhetoric on immigration to counter the AfD, such as a controversial statement in October about the problems of the “German urban cityscape” – seen as criticism of the impact of migrants on cities.
But this offended many Social Democrats, as well as some moderates among his conservative bloc.
Forsa director Güllner argued that Merz made “a fatal mistake” by focusing so much on migration when the struggling economy was the main concern of many voters.
The AfD meanwhile sees Merz’s struggles as an opportunity.
A clear majority of Germans backed conservative or right-wing parties in the election, AfD MP Sebastian Münzenmaier told AFP.
But Merz’s coalition with the centre-left appears incapable of delivering on his promises, he said.
“No one sees this government staying in power for four years,” said Münzenmaier, who predicted that the AfD would have strong showings in next years’ state elections.
“Many believe that at the end of next year, after the elections, the situation will become very difficult for the government in Berlin and that it will collapse”.
The prospect of another coalition crisis and early elections did not sit well with Stephanie and Bernd Nebel, two visitors to Berlin from Munich who spoke with AFP outside the Reichstag, the seat of Germany’s parliament.
The biggest problem with the coalition so far, Bernd Nebel said, was that Merz’s government “made it their mission to boost the economic recovery a little – and absolutely nothing has happened in that regard”.
(vib)
