Nairobi — A new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) assessment warns that the world is still far from meeting the Paris Agreement goals, with global warming projections showing only marginal improvement despite new national pledges — leaving the planet on course for a dangerous escalation in climate risks.
According to UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, full implementation of current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would result in a 2.3-2.5°C temperature rise by the end of the century, only slightly down from 2.6-2.8°C projected last year. If nations continue implementing existing policies only, temperatures could rise by as much as 2.8°C, compared to 3.1°C in 2024.
However, UNEP notes that part of this improvement stems from methodological updates rather than genuine emissions cuts — while the upcoming withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement is expected to cancel out the marginal gains, underscoring the limited impact of new pledges.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that the world is now on the brink of surpassing the 1.5°C threshold within the next decade.
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“Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable – starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s,” he said.
“But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up. The goal of 1.5 degrees by the end of the century remains our North Star — and it’s still within reach, but only if we meaningfully increase our ambition.”
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said governments have repeatedly fallen short of their climate commitments.
“Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target,” she said.
“While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough. We still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop.”
The report finds that only 60 Parties, representing 63 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions, have submitted or announced NDCs with 2035 mitigation targets as of September 2025. Even then, most countries are not on track to meet their existing 2030 goals, widening the gap between pledges and implementation.
To align with the Paris targets, emissions by 2030 must fall by 25 per cent for the 2°C pathway and 40 per cent for the 1.5°C pathway compared with 2019 levels. Yet, global emissions grew by 2.3 per cent in 2024, reaching 57.7 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent.
Full implementation of all NDCs would reduce global emissions by only 15 per cent by 2035, far below the 35-55 per cent cuts required to meet the 2°C and 1.5°C goals respectively.
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The report projects that the world will exceed 1.5°C of warming for several decades, warning that reversing the overshoot will demand massive, rapid emissions reductions and could require risky and costly carbon dioxide removal on an unprecedented scale.
A “rapid mitigation action from 2025” scenario modeled by UNEP shows that limiting overshoot to about 0.3°C and returning to 1.5°C by 2100 remains technically possible — but only if 2030 emissions fall by 26 per cent and 2035 emissions by 46 per cent relative to 2019 levels.
Despite the grim outlook, the report stresses that proven solutions already exist. Expanding renewable energy, tackling methane emissions, and supporting developing nations with finance and technology could still bend the curve.
“Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action – action that delivers faster economic growth, better health, more jobs, energy security, and resilience,” Andersen said.
The G20 nations, which account for 77 per cent of global emissions, are urged to lead the charge.
However, UNEP warns that G20 emissions rose by 0.7 per cent in 2024, and most members remain off track to meet their 2030 targets — highlighting the urgent need for bolder leadership and cooperation ahead of COP30.
