Coups in Madagascar and Guinea-Bissau, an attempted coup in Benin: Africa has had a turbulent 2025. Why have coups become so frequent?
Two coups and one foiled coup within eight weeks constitute a new dimension even for Africa’s recent history. In October, the military in Madagascar deposed the president after weeks of protests. Then in November, soldiers in Guinea-Bissau deposed the head of state shortly after what they considered to be a rigged election.
In early December, a group of soldiers calling themselves the “Military Committee for Renewal” announced a takeover in Benin. They were ultimately arrested following the intervention of the presidential guard and regional partners.
Eight African countries are currently under military rule; a “coup belt” stretches across the continent, particularly in the predominantly French-speaking Sahel region.
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According to Jakkie Cilliers, founder and former Executive Director of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Africa is no different from other continents. “The challenge in West Africa and the Sahel is that you’ve got very rapid population growth,” Cilliers told DW.
“Many young people, particularly young men who are primarily responsible for instability, are increasingly well educated, but there are no jobs and no opportunities. And that is a very volatile situation,” he said.
Cilliers compared the socioeconomic conditions to gasoline soaking a rag. The more gasoline there is, the more dangerous a spark becomes — or in other words, the more likely a possible coup becomes. A successful coup elsewhere could also generate momentum that motivates renegade military personnel to take action in their own country.
There are three structural drivers of coups: economic pressure (which, for example, also triggered the so-called Arab Spring in 2011), security crises (such as in the Sahel), and tensions surrounding elections.
“Because elections raise the stakes, particularly when incumbents try to extend power or where institutions are weak,” Cilliers added.
Which countries are particularly at risk?
Beverly Ochieng, a researcher in the Africa program at the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Dakar, explained the need to address the root causes that fuel coups.
“It’s always worth looking out for all of these various triggers,” Ochieng told DW. “Is there a high level of socioeconomic grievances? Are there misgivings within the military about either their treatment or whether they’re being sufficiently paid or their working conditions are right? Are there external instigators who want to take advantage of discontent with the government to then try to mobilise en masse and try to disrupt the cohesiveness of institutions?” she said.
For her, some countries exhibit vulnerabilities; even if coups are not occurring, they could be successful if they do.
Every coup plan begins with strict secrecy. Otherwise, those involved would be arrested immediately. In this respect, it is difficult, if not impossible, to predict whether other countries could follow the current wave of coups — and if so, which ones.
Ochieng noted a particular risk of new coups in the Sahel states of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, all of which are already under military rule. Chad should also be considered, given differences of opinion within the military.
In addition, the security expert mentioned Cote d’Ivoire, where President Alassane Ouattara has just begun his fourth term in office. “This was very controversial among the opposition, and the country has a history of military intervention,” she said.
Guinea is another vulnerable state. Elections scheduled for December 28 are expected to end the transition period following the September 2021 coup.
“But it’s still a source of concern, especially given the fact that the opposition is not likely to take part in this election or in successive elections,” Ochieng said, adding that there had been some divisions over how the members of the junta have managed rivals within the military. “It’s another country worth looking out for.”
How to prevent the coups
Even when mutineers find conditions ripe for a coup and hatch a plan, it is not too late to avert it. In Benin, President Patrice Talon’s government regained the upper hand within hours.
Soldiers from a task force of the West African Economic Community ECOWAS and from Nigeria, which has an interest in keeping its western neighbor stable, the former colonial power France, all supported the suppression of the coup with intelligence and logistics.
For Beverly Ochieng, Benin exemplifies what is possible when governments and regional communities act quickly and decisively.
“It’s really about how well both the government and the regional community are able to put measures in place and even just the proactiveness, because this is probably the first coup that has been successfully defused, just at the point when it was happening.”
She believes this would also have been possible in Niger in July 2023. “Unlike the others, Niger, I’ve always felt could potentially have been defused, but the concern was the standoff between the Sahelians and the ECOWAS standby force that was supposed to be put in place, and that delayed decision-making.”
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In the case of coups carried out in recent years, ECOWAS and the African Union (AU) have had no option but to suspend membership and impose sanctions.
Does the Benin example indicate that organizations are now better equipped to address the coup crisis? “We have recently seen that ECOWAS and the African Union have taken a more forward-leaning, robust approach in what’s happened recently,” Jakkie Cilliers said, cautiously adding that he was not sure if that will have much of a deterrent effect.
However, the ISS founder stressed that new coups are unlikely to easily win the favor of the population.
“The promise of the coups in West Africa has not really delivered as we all expected. These problems are deep-seated, they are structural, and there’s no short-term solution to them,” said Cilliers.
He points out that this also means that coup risks can only be reduced in the long term through solid development that benefits the entire population of a country, economically and through access to education, basic goods, and rights.
This article was translated from German.
