A militant group notorious for its extreme interpretation of Islam, the Taliban faced a steep battle to gain international recognition when it toppled the Western-backed Afghan government and seized power in 2021.
But over the past four years the Taliban has won the de facto acceptance of the international community, even if Russia is the only country to formally recognize the group’s rule in Afghanistan.
“The world has accepted that the Taliban are here to stay,” said Michael Kugelman, senior fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada.
That is in stark contrast with the hard-line Islamist group’s first stint in power from 1996 to 2001, when the Taliban regime faced armed resistance to its rule and isolated itself from much of the outside world and became a global pariah.
“From the time the Taliban regained power in 2021, they have proved they are willing and able to gain legitimacy,” added Kugelman.
Changing Political Situation
Over a dozen countries, including regional powers like Russia and China, operate embassies in Kabul, and some countries have accepted Taliban diplomats. Even Western countries have established contacts with the Taliban.
Pragmatism is behind much of the outreach, which is driven by the international threat posed by the Afghanistan-based Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) extremist group as well as efforts by the West to repatriate failed Afghan asylum seekers.
“Increasingly, there is domestic pressure in Europe, driven by hard-right political parties, calling for the deportation of Afghan refugees whose asylum claims have been rejected,” said Hameed Hakimi, associate fellow at London’s Chatham House think tank. “European countries cannot deport Afghan refugees without coordinating with the Taliban regime.”
Austria deported an Afghan man back to his homeland on October 21 for the first time since 2021 while Germany resumed the deportation of Afghans last year, becoming the first Western country to do so.
The European Union said on October 20 that it has “initiated exploratory contacts” with the Taliban government in a push to boost deportations of failed asylum seekers.
Meanwhile, European countries have shuttered Afghan embassies still operated by diplomats appointed by the ousted Afghan government and allowed Taliban officials to take over diplomatic missions.
There is recognition in Europe that “the political situation in Afghanistan has changed dramatically, and the former Afghan state is unlikely to be restored,” said Hakimi.
The West’s outreach to the Taliban has come despite an outcry from human rights groups. The group has committed widespread human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings, since regaining power. In July, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Taliban leaders, accusing them of persecuting women and girls.
Another Boost For Legitimacy
Even as the Taliban has boosted its legitimacy abroad, its efforts to shore up support at home have largely faltered.
The Taliban initially tried to assuage the concerns of Afghans by projecting itself as a more moderate force. But the group failed to live up to its promises and has instead severely curbed women’s freedoms, waged a brutal crackdown on dissent, and monopolized power.
Unlike the 1990s, the Taliban does not face a serious internal threat to its rule, cementing the group’s grip on power.
To boost its legitimacy at home, the Taliban group has exploited tensions with external adversaries.
Fierce fighting erupted between Taliban fighters and Pakistani forces earlier this month after Islamabad carried out air strikes in the Afghan capital, Kabul. Air strikes and ground fighting left dozens of people dead on both sides. The deadliest-ever hostilities involving the two sides, the escalation threatened to spill into a full-blown conflict.
A cease-fire was agreed after mediation from Qatar and Turkey. The sides will hold peace talks in Istanbul in the coming days.
“The Taliban have accrued significant gains in domestic and international legitimacy from this crisis,” said Kugelman.
The Taliban successfully rallied the country behind it with its retaliation against Pakistan and secured an internationally mediated agreement that ended the crisis.
“For the Taliban, it was certainly a victory in having made major gains with one of its top objectives: Earning legitimacy at home and abroad,” added Kugelman.
