Türkiye will host next year’s COP31 climate summit, while Australia will take the lead in guiding government negotiations, after a compromise deal was struck in talks in Brazil, Australian climate change and energy minister Chris Bowen announced on Thursday.
The arrangement follows a diplomatic impasse that had stalled progress during the final week of COP30 in Belém. Australia had been bidding to co-host COP31 with Pacific island nations, but withdrew amid a standoff that risked pushing the 2026 meeting to Bonn, Germany, where the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) secretariat is based. Officials feared the uncertainty could overshadow ongoing negotiations.
“Australia’s motivation in bidding to host COP31 has always been to elevate the views and the interests of our Pacific brothers and sisters; to support multilateralism … and of course, to act in Australia’s best interests,” said Bowen in a press conference. “I know some people would be disappointed in that outcome, [but] other people would be even more disappointed if it had gone to Bonn without a COP President in place.”
Christiana Figueres, former UNFCCC executive secretary, said the choice of location is less important than what countries deliver.
“The climate progress we need to see in 2026 does not depend as much on the hosting country as it does on the acceleration of the multitude of decarbonisation efforts we have seen displayed at COP30, said Figueres. “All countries need to remain engaged at the highest level and align their domestic efforts with the Paris Agreement targets.”
The Pacific Islands pavilion at COP30. Image: Pacific Islands Climate Action Network
But the decision has triggered disappointment across the Pacific. Gavan McFadzean, manager of Australian Conservation Foundation’s climate change and clean energy programme called the outcome a “massive missed opportunity for Australia and the Pacific”.
Pacific island countries are considered by scientists as among those most at risk for disappearance or forced mass relocations foreseen within this century if global emissions are not sharply reduced and adaptation measures insufficiently implemented.
The arc of islands located north and east of Australia fall under the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) negotiating bloc in United Nations climate talks, a coalition of 39 small island and low-lying coastal countries from the Pacific, Caribbean, African, Indian Ocean and South China Sea regions.
AOSIS played a crucial role in helping secure the ambitious 1.5°C warming limit in the Paris Agreement in 2015 and was instrumental in negotiating Article 8, which formally recognises loss and damage associated with climate impacts.
Separately, students from the Pacific Island group spearheaded years of campaigning that led to the groundbreaking advisory opinion, where the UN’s highest court ruled that countries have an obligation to curb emissions from fossil fuel production and can be held responsible for the resulting harms.
“Communities in the Pacific have been denied an important global platform to show how global inaction on climate change presents them with an existential threat,” said McFadzean.
“Despite the failure to secure COP31, Australia remains a major contributor to global emissions. The best way for the Australian government to show it is serious about climate action would be to commit to phase out fossil fuels for domestic use and exports, contributing to the global transition,” he added.
Australia is a top global exporter of coal, natural gas, and oil. Although its solar and wind energy capacity additions are growing, fossil fuels still provide a majority of its electricity and energy exports.
Catherine Abreu, director of International Climate Politics Hub, a group focused on diplomatic climate action, said although the climate leadership of the Pacific Islands is “crystal clear”, the performances of Australia and Türikye at COP30 have been “lacklustre”.
“If Australia is serious about having a key role in the 2026 climate conference, they need to stop holding up progress on adaptation finance in the final days of COP30,” she said. “Türkiye can support its pitch of a ‘lower emissions COP’ by backing a COP30 roadmap to accelerate the just and equitable transition away from fossil fuels.”
