Payroll Situation
2025 Payroll: $224 million
Projected 2026 Payroll: $231 million
That juxtaposition of those two numbers wouldn’t seem to hint at an upcoming free-agent splurge, but never say never. The Astros have been teased for a run at Dylan Cease, and what really matters is that they have about $17 million in average annual value standing between them and the 2026 luxury tax threshold.
Contention Window
2025 Record: 87-75, 2nd in AL West
2025 WAR: 40.5 (11th in MLB)
Farm System Rank: 27
The Astros missed the playoffs for the first time since 2016, which fits into a pattern of diminishing returns. Yet they have done a good job of keeping their core fresh, and they stand to gain as much as any team from better health in 2026. Yordan Alvarez, for example, will hopefully be back after enduring a lost 2025 season.
Quality of Life
Stadium: Daikin Park since 2000
2025 Attendance: 2,727,877
Cost of Living vs. Manhattan: -60%
Highest Income Tax Rate: None
Even though the Astros didn’t draw as well this year, they were still top-five in the AL for attendance for a fifth year in a row. Houston is also an excellent place for free agents to put down roots, as the city is affordable and Texas doesn’t do taxes.
