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The Brief – Ten years on, is Europe any less vulnerable?

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Ten years ago, I was on a terrace in Paris’s 11th arrondissement when the first fragments of news about shootings nearby began to circulate. Like many in France marking this grim anniversary, I remember the confusion and the shock, the rush to lock ourselves in a building, the frantic messages to friends and family, and the growing fear that what we were witnessing was only the beginning.

As the awful scale of the attacks became apparent, questions were soon directed towards Belgium. The Paris attacks had been partly orchestrated in Brussels, and one of the key terrorists, Salah Abdeslam, managed to hide in Molenbeek. The neighbourhood has worked hard to rebuild its reputation but remains deeply associated with this episode.

Belgium’s shortcomings have been openly acknowledged. In a striking interview with Le Soir for the 10th anniversary of the attacks, Frédéric Van Leeuw – who at the time was Belgium’s federal prosecutor – regretted what he called “un constat d’échec”. He highlighted legislative gaps and the painful realisation that Abdeslam’s earlier judicial file had been closed.

France, too, recognised oversights – for instance, its intelligence services mistakenly believed that a key suspect was in Syria rather than Belgium. Months later, Belgium faced its own painful questions when 32 were killed in attacks at Zaventem airport and Maelbeek metro, just by the Commission.

A lot has changed since. The collapse of the Islamic State has reduced the capacity for complex terror plots. Intelligence cooperation has improved and terror networks find it harder to operate. Online radicalisation is treated more seriously by some tech platforms.

But the threat has not disappeared; it has shifted. Some call it ambient jihadism, but secret services observe a more hybrid trend, with a new generation of young people absorbing bits of extremist narratives online and acting alone, unpredictably.

Belgium remains on high alert after a foiled plot against the prime minister and, in France, the discovery of extremist propaganda in Salah Abdeslam’s prison cell recently led to the indictment of his former partner and two relatives who were allegedly plotting their own attack.

Today is not just an occasion for evaluating the shortcomings and residing weaknesses. In 2015, terrorism in Europe was already transnational, fuelled by online radicalisation, social isolation, and judicial systems struggling to keep pace. A decade later, Europe is safest when neighbours cover the gaps left by their neighbours. On counterterrorism efforts, that is EU solidarity at its most essential.

Table of Contents

Roundup

Nothing to see at the EPP – The EU’s top prosecutor said that corruption investigations against the European People’s Party were dropped, finding no evidence of criminal wrongdoing. Allegations claimed the party misused bloc funds during the 2019 parliamentary election of its leader, Manfred Weber.

Not giving up on the reparation loan – Among the three distinct options for supporting Ukraine’s war effort, unveiled by Ursula von der Leyen in a speech to Parliament on Thursday morning, the Commission president said that a “reparations loan” is still her preference. Using immobilised Russian sovereign assets is “the clearest way to make Russia understand that time is not on its side,” she said.

The end of the cordon sanitaire – The EPP partnered with the far right to push through sweeping cutbacks to green reporting rules for companies after it failed to reach an agreement with the centre left, liberals and the Greens. It marks a turn in alliances to form a majority in Parliament, as the EPP had previously refrained from joining European Conservatives & Reformists and the Patriots for Europe, except for symbolic votes.

Across Europe

Catalan independence bid in the clear – The Catalan independence push, including the 2017 referendum, did not harm the EU’s financial goals, the EU Advocate General said on Thursday. Additionally, Spain’s amnesty laws could protect the movement’s leaders.

EU weighs Slovakia bear cull – Slovakia’s government approved the culling of up to 350 brown bears after a 59-year-old hunter was killed by a bear in March. The decision has sparked outrage among conservationalists and has left the Commission wondering whether the move violates EU nature protection law.

Poland violated abortion rule – The European Court of Human Rights determined that legal uncertainty over abortions on medical grounds in Poland violated the right to respect for private and family life. The case comes after a controversial 2020 Polish court ruling banned abortion in cases of foetal abnormalities.

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