The EU made progress on key defence files this autumn, pitching new projects and unlocking funds. However, the flood of activity makes it easy to lose track of where things stand and what will happen next.
To ensure you’re up to speed, here’s a recap of some of the new policies – and what to expect in the months ahead.
Nine capability coalitions
EU leaders agreed in October to form coalitions to close nine capability gaps identified in a Commission white paper.
What comes next?
- Capitals will launch “concrete projects” to plug capability gaps in the first half of 2026, according to the latest European Council conclusions.
- The Commission will begin a review of the required industrial capacity ramp-ups by mid-2026.
- By the end of 2027, 40% of all defence procurement will occur between multiple member states, according to the EU’s defence readiness roadmap.
- All relevant contracts and financing should be in place by the end of 2028, ensuring each project’s completion by the end of 2030.
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Four flagship projects
The Commission has proposed that EU countries implement four flagship projects: the European Drone Defence Initiative (EDDI), the Eastern Flank Watch, the European Air Shield, and the European Space Shield.
However, EU leaders did not formally endorse the projects or their deadlines when they met in October.
What comes next?
- The EDDI and the Eastern Flank Watch could launch at the start of next year.
- The European Space Shield and the European Air Shield are set to begin in the second half of 2026.
- Participating countries should have a coordination agreement in place by the spring.
SAFE Funding
More than half of EU countries will receive a share of the €150 billion Security Action for Europe (SAFE) loans to fund their individual defence needs. They have until 30 November to inform the Commission of their plans for spending the money.
The Commission could also strike a deal with the UK and Canada by mid-November, allowing the two NATO allies to access the funds.
What comes next?
- The EU executive hopes the Council will approve countries’ SAFE spending plans in January.
- Capitals could receive the first disbursements in March.
More Funding
The European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) currently has a €1.5 billion budget for joint defence projects. Countries can tap into this by establishing collaborative industrial projects – known as European Defence Projects of Common Interest (EDPCIs) – or by co-managing armament programs under the Structure for European Armament Programme (SEAPs).
MEPs will vote on a final compromise for the EDIP regulations at a December plenary session. The Council will vote after that.
What comes next?
- The Commission will create a new €1 billion “fund of funds” with the European Investment Bank and the European Investment Fund to support defence-related projects by the first half of 2026.
- The European Investment Bank’s leadership will propose increasing the amount of money available for defence from this year’s €3.5 billion allocation.
- EU leaders will discuss the 2028-34 EU budget when they next meet in December, including the Commission’s earmarked €131 billion for defence and space.
Military Mobility
The Commission will present its military mobility package on 19 November. The text will focus on harmonising national rules for equipment and troop movements.
By the first half of 2026, capitals should identify concrete projects based on a list of 500 “hot spots” and four corridors.
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Industry, Research, and Innovation
The Parliament’s industry committee will vote on 20 November on a mini omnibus compromise to fund defence-related research projects. A plenary vote will take place before January.
What comes next?
- The Commission will unveil a European Defence Transformation Roadmap on 19 November, proposing new ways to boost innovation.
- RESourceEU, a plan to strengthen Europe’s supply chain resilience for essential metals, will be presented at the end of the year.
- The European Commission expects co-legislators to strike a compromise on three proposed regulations that will be in a big defence omnibus before 2026.
- The Commission will release an action plan to address supply chain bottlenecks and dependencies on specific critical raw materials in the second half of 2026.
- A legislative proposal simplifying defence procurement will be pitched in the second half of 2026.
- The Commission will propose a revision of the chemical ban directive REACH by the end of 2026.
- The Quantum Act will be ready in the second quarter of 2026 to unify national-level research and boost quantum computer production.
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Support for Ukraine
The Commission has pledged additional funding to support Ukraine’s war effort, with new initiatives expected in the coming months.
What comes next?
- A €2 billion initiative to fund drones for Ukraine, first pitched in September, could materialise in the coming months.
- The Commission wants EU leaders to use frozen Russian assets to pay Ukraine a reparations loan by the end of 2025.
- The EU executive will present an options paper before the end of 2025 with ideas for funding Ukraine using common EU debt.
- The Commission will pitch “additional measures” to incentivise capitals to support Ukraine’s military in the first half of 2026.
- The Commission will negotiate an association agreement in the next six months to allow Ukrainian defence companies to access EU collaborative projects under the €7.3 billion European Defence Fund.
- The EU executive will release its Qualitative Military Edge programme (QME) to support investments in Ukraine’s armed forces in the first quarter of 2026.
Aurélie Pugnet contributed reporting.
(cm, aw)
