Expectations are high for COP30 as its Brazilian presidency stands to deliver climate finance for the most vulnerable when nearly 200 countries convene for the next two weeks.
Unlike previous COP hosts, the Latin American country has long been active in international climate negotiations. The Earth Summit, which was held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, gave rise to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), resulting in the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015.
Ten years later, the Paris accord is working to deliver progress, but must work “faster and fairer, for everyone” said United Nations climate change chief Simon Stiell, in his speech at the Leaders’ Summit on Friday.
“Finance is the great accelerator,” he said. “To unlock that transformation, finance must be scaled up, sped up, and spread out – reaching every nation, fast, fair, and in full.”
Crucial issues at this year’s COP revolve largely around numerical targets and data. As the centrepiece of Brazil’s climate agenda, the conference hopes to drum up more support for a new forest fund aimed at supporting the conservation and restoration of endangered forests worldwide. Discussions will also focus on how much rich nations should pay developing countries to meet their climate goals, and how many more countries need to submit their updated national climate targets to assess the amount of emissions the world can curb by 2035.
Eco-Business spotlights key figures from this year’s COP and explores their implications for the global climate agenda.
US$125 billion forest fund needs to gain more ground
Brazil’s flagship initiative to safeguard the Amazon rainforest, which forms the core of its COP30 climate agenda, is thrust to the fore, although funds secured so far fall short of the US$125 billion target.
The Tropical Forest Forever Facility, or TFFF, designed to support the conservation of endangered forests worldwide, hopes to raise US$25 billion from public sources, mainly developed countries attending the climate talks, with the rest to come from the private sector and financial markets. The World Bank has agreed to host the facility.
The General Plenary Session of Leaders held on 6 November in Brazil, ahead of COP 30. Image: Hermes Caruzo/COP30 via Flickr
It aims to provide annual performance-based “Forest Payments” to participating tropical forest countries as an incentive for the conservation and restoration of tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests. At least 20 per cent of the fund will be reserved for direct access by Indigenous Peoples and local communities.
Indonesia is the only Asian country to have pledged to the facility with US$1 billion, with Brazil committing the same amount and France promising to give about US$500 million. Norway has announced the biggest amount at US$35 billion, but the United Kingdom has outright refused to contribute. There will need to be greater momentum at COP30 if the plan is to get off the ground.
US$1.3 trillion roadmap: no binding language to make wealthy states pay for climate harms
The COP presidencies of Azerbaijan and Brazil released the “Baku to Belém roadmap,” outlining how climate finance could be increased to at least US$1.3 trillion annually by 2035. Although the roadmap is not a formal part of COP negotiations, all eyes are following its progress as it was introduced after the disappointment over last year’s formal US$300 billion per year climate finance target agreed at COP29 in Baku.
It does not propose creating new financing mechanisms, but suggests the use of grants, concessional financing, private sector funding and other areas aimed at boosting climate finance over the coming decade.
Since it does not contain binding language and detail on who precisely would be responsible for providing these funds, it has been described by civil society groups as more of an aspirational “call to action” than a target.
COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev (left) and COP30 president André Corrêa do Lago (right) launch the Baku to Belém roadmap ahead of the climate talks on 5 November. Image: Rafa Neddermeyer/COP30
However, developing country negotiating blocs like the Group of 77 and China, which includes those from Southeast Asia, have called for the importance of wealthy states to assist developing countries financially in their climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts, referencing Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement.
G77 and China said in its submission, in response to the call for written inputs on the roadmap by the COP presidencies: “The roadmap must ensure that developed countries show leadership and urgently deliver on the US$300 billion goal, which would form the base from which we can build a robust Baku to Belém roadmap as well as clarifying the additional role developed countries will play in the context of Article 9.1, which is additional to the US$300 billion.”
Half of member countries have submitted updated national climate targets
As the climate talks start in earnest, only 111 countries out of nearly 200 so far have submitted updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs), despite COP30 host Brazil calling on more countries to submit their plans ahead of the summit.
More than 90 per cent of countries missed this year’s February deadline to update their NDCs, with Singapore being the only country in the Southeast Asian region to have complied. The Philippines, Laos and Myanmar are the only Southeast Asian countries left which have yet to announce their enhanced targets.
Signatories to the Paris Agreement are required to submit updated targets every five years. This round, with its 2035 timeframe, was meant to be submitted by early February.
These targets provide the basis for what action each country will take to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
Based on the UNFCCC report released on 28 Oct, there will be a 10 per cent drop in emissions by 2035 if countries fully implement their current climate plans. At the time of the report, 64 countries submitted their updated climate targets.
While the authors caution that the dataset is limited, they indicate this marks the first time the UNFCCC has projected a global decline in greenhouse gas emissions, which have continued to rise since 1990.
The analysis also found that NDCs are becoming more comprehensive and credible, with almost three-quarters of new NDCs including adaptation components.
Despite this progress, the UNFCCC warned that global efforts remain insufficient to align with pathways limiting warming to 2°C — or ideally 1.5°C — above pre-industrial levels. To achieve these goals, greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall by 60 per cent by 2035 for the 1.5°C target, and by 35 per cent for the 2°C target, compared with 2019 levels.
The 100 indicators for climate adaptation
Although the UNFCCC report published last month highlighted that global climate adaptation efforts are advancing, with 144 countries initiating national adaptation plans including Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand, progress has been slow and small-scale.
The Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) aims to address this shortfall by providing a clear framework and targets for measuring progress on adaptation. Although it was part of the Paris Agreement, it was only in COP28 where an overarching framework was finally made.
The following year at COP29, parties agreed to limit the initial pool of over 9,500 indicators of the GGA to a focused set of 100 that cover key thematic areas like water, food, health, ecosystems, infrastructure, poverty eradication, cultural heritage, among others.
The formal adoption and negotiation of a set of indicators to track progress in climate change adaptation worldwide is set to take place in this year’s climate talks.
While the GGA indicator framework will effectively track global funding flows for adaptation, it must be accompanied by a new adaptation finance commitment, wrote Demet Intepe, climate adaptation and resilience expert at nonprofit Practical Action.
Developed countries pledged to double their provision of funds for climate adaptation at COP26 through the Glasgow Climate Pact which expires this year, leaving no time to lose in establishing a new and more ambitious commitment, she said in an opinion piece.
