Bogotá, Colombia – The first polling data for Colombia’s 2026 presidential election was released today after a national gag order on publishing polls expired last week.
The survey results suggested three frontrunners to be the country’s next president: Iván Cepeda on the left, Sergio Fajardo in the center, and Abelardo de la Espriella on the right.
But despite outlining several prominent candidates, the poll also shows that many voters remain undecided in what is expected to be a contentious election period.
Who published the poll?
Today’s data was published by polling firm Cifras y Conceptos, which is headed by César Caballero, the former director of the Colombian national statistics agency (DANE).
The agency surveyed 3,361 people across 54 municipalities between October 27 and November 4. It has a reported margin of error of 3%. The data follows a five-month national ban on publishing polls, and therefore has its limitations.
Who are the leading candidates for president?
Respondents were asked to choose their preferred candidate in nine different groups, organized by political standing.
The candidates who received the highest voting intention in their section were: Iván Cepeda, with 24%, Sergio Fajardo, also with 24%, and Abelardo de la Espriella, with 17%.
Iván Cepeda is a senator and veteran leftist political figure, famous for his legal battle with ex-President Álvaro Uribe who Cepeda accused of being linked to paramilitary groups. He began his campaign in August and was selected last month as the official candidate for the ruling Pacto Histórico, or Historic Pact, coalition.
“A quarter of respondents identify with the Pacto Histórico, they’re here to stay, and I think that that’s important,” Sergio Guzmán, Director at Colombia Risk Analysis, told The Bogotá Post.
The Pacto, currently led by President Gustavo Petro, has the highest support of any party, according to the poll, with 21% of respondents in favor.
The second-highest ranking candidate was Sergio Fajardo, who is undertaking his third consecutive attempt to reach Colombia’s highest office. In 2018, he finished third in the first round and in 2022 he finished fourth. Fajardo, who was formerly the Mayor of Medellín and Governor of Antioquia, is a centrist candidate. In the poll, he was pitched against Claudia López, the former Mayor of Bogotá, who had a 13% favorability rating.
“The majority of Colombians identify with the center, so the center has the most viable path to the presidency,” explained Guzmán.
But he also noted that Fajardo does not seem to be reaping the benefits of Colombia’s centrist tendencies: “He should be having a golden moment but for the life of me, he doesn’t seem to be having that.”
Finally, Abelardo de la Espriella is likely the most surprising candidate to sit among the frontrunners. Grouped alongside fellow outsiders Vicky Dávila and Juan Carlos Pinzón, De La Espriella may prove to be emerging as the right-wing’s strongest candidate.
A famous criminal defense lawyer, his campaign is focused on an anti-corruption crusade and the restoration of conservative family values. On Monday, De La Espriella hosted a 15,000 strong rally in Bogotá.
Indecision and polarization
Despite shedding light on prominent presidential hopefuls, the prevailing attitude of survey respondents was indecision.
“The majority of people are undecided. Sixty-two percent of respondents don’t know who they’re gonna vote for. This is significant,” said Guzmán.
Furthermore, in every grouping of candidates, a significant majority of respondents said they would not vote for any option.
Most candidates also had higher disapproval than approval ratings, highlighting how polarized voters are ahead of the elections.
Only one candidate, Juan Manuel Galán, enjoyed higher approval than disapproval while Fajardo had equally positive and negative favorability, at 35%. Right-wing hopefuls Vicky Dávila and María Fernanda Cabal proved the most unfavorable at 51% and 49%, respectively.
What now?
While today’s poll begins to shed light on voter intentions following months of unsubstantiated speculation, it is far from decisive or conclusive.
“This poll is one data point. We need many more polls to understand and identify trends,” Guzmán explained.
As more data begins to flood in, parties and politicians will begin to fine-tune their strategies ahead of coalition building and final candidate selection in March.
For now, the election remains a toss-up.
Featured image description: From left to right: Iván Cepeda, Sergio Fajardo, Abelardo de la Espriella. Image credit: Wikimedia commons and candidates’ official X accounts.
This article originally appeared on The Bogotá Post and was republished with permission.
