Pasta products from Italy could soon cost a lot more in the U.S.
After the Commerce Department launched an anti-“dumping” probe into Italian pasta exports, the U.S. is set to charge a nearly 92% tariff on 13 of the largest Italian pasta exporters beginning in January, on top of the existing 15% tariff on goods from the European Union. The rate is “preliminary,” an official told the Washington Post, and will be reviewed over the next few months before it is applied. If nothing changes, the nearly 107% total levy will take effect in January.
Here’s what to know.
What is dumping?
Dumping is the practice of exporting a product to a foreign market at a price lower than its domestic market price or production cost. It is widely considered an unfair trade practice and a form of price discrimination done in order to gain an unfair advantage in a market. It is sometimes also done in order to sell off excess products to prevent losses.
Domestic competitors can lose out as a result of dumping. Companies that dump goods in a certain market and manage to drive local competitors out of the market may also be able to gain a monopoly and later raise prices.
Many countries and trade blocs impose anti-dumping duties on dumped goods. The European Union, for example, has antidumping measures for imports after investigating whether goods sold at unfairly low prices injure E.U. producers. The E.U. has recently imposed antidumping duties on imports of certain steel products from Egypt, Japan, and Vietnam. The World Trade Organization also has rules against dumping that allow countries to take appropriate measures against companies found to be dumping.
Why are Italian pasta products being probed?
The Commerce Department launched its probe into certain Italian pasta products in August last year after two American pasta manufacturers—8th Avenue Food & Provisions and Winland Foods—called for a review of Italian exporters the month prior. The Commerce Department requested information from Pasta Garofalo and La Molisana, the two biggest Italian exporters, related to sales between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024. The department also looked at sales from other companies that voluntarily submitted information.
The agency issued its preliminary results in September, which assigned La Molisana, Pasta Garofalo, and 11 other companies that had not been individually examined a 91.74% anti-dumping tariff. The Commerce Department, like the E.U., can also assess duties based on the view that companies provided inadequate or inconsistent data during an investigation, also known as adverse inference. In this case, the Commerce Department said that La Molisana and Pasta Garofalo “did not provide information requested by Commerce” and were therefore determined “to have been uncooperative.”
Both La Molisana and Pasta Garofalo have denied the dumping allegations.
The results are preliminary, and will not be applied until the final results are determined. The Commerce Department has 120 days from Sept. 4 (when the preliminary results were issued) to issue its final results, unless the deadline is extended. During this period, exporters can request a hearing to raise issues in the case or provide written comments.
The Commerce Department probe is considered a routine investigation. The antidumping charges are separate from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, which have been used as a means to balance the U.S. trade deficit with other countries and secure more favorable trade or investment terms for the U.S. But together the result could be prohibitively high tariffs on Italian pasta imports.
The Trump Administration said it would keep Section 232 investigations running during the government shutdown, which has stretched past a month, but it’s not clear whether the timeline for the probe into pasta, which falls under Section 751 of the 1930 Tariff Act, will be impacted.
How might this affect your pasta?
Most of the pasta consumed by Americans is produced within the country: the U.S. pasta market is mainly served by domestic manufacturers, and the U.S. itself is the world’s second-largest pasta-producing country behind Italy. Still, Italian pasta is the biggest source of imported pasta in the U.S. by a significant margin: last year, the U.S. imported more than $700 million of pasta from Italy last year, representing around 12% of the U.S. pasta market.
Among the companies that could face the tariff is Barilla, the biggest pasta brand in the U.S. But while the company is headquartered in Italy, it produces most of its pasta sold in the U.S. in the U.S., which would not be subject to the duties.
The levies would affect around half of Italy’s pasta exports to the U.S., Luigi Scordamaglia, CEO of food industry group Filiera Italia, told the Post. Coldiretti, the biggest agricultural organization in Italy, said in an Oct. 4 statement that the duties would “have devastating consequences for ‘Made in Italy.’”
The tariffs would effectively double the cost of a plate of pasta in the U.S., according to Coldiretti, and would deliver a “fatal blow” to Italian pasta makers.
The tariffs have also been a sore point for Italy, which has long had a historical friendship with and been a key NATO ally to the U.S., while Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has had a good relationship with Trump.
Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has denied accusations of dumping, and the probe has also ruffled U.S. relations with the E.U.
“We believe that this decision, as it was reached, was not based on the full facts and figures, and we are doing our utmost to present this to them,” E.U. Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said last week while on a visit to Rome. He called the duty “clearly something which is not acceptable.”
An E.U. official told Euronews last month that the E.U. may initiate a WTO dispute with the U.S. if it finds flaws in the investigation, although thus far the probe has appeared to follow the rules for trade defence mechanisms outlined by the WTO.
Šefčovič said he had spoken with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick earlier last week about the issue.
“We must defend and promote the pasta supply chain, both in the U.S. and in Italy, to avoid selling off one of our flagship products of excellence,” Coldiretti President Ettore Prandini said in a statement last month. “The American accusations of dumping are unacceptable and instrumental to Trump’s plan to move production to the U.S.”
