Topline
Climate pledges undertaken by governments around the world will cause global emissions of greenhouse gases to fall by around 10% over the next decade—well below the 60% reduction needed to prevent global temperatures from rising by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius—the United Nations said Tuesday in a report released a month ahead of the COP 30 climate summit in Brazil next month.
The UN said green house gas emissions are projected to drop by 10% over the next decade.
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Key Facts
The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change said global emissions will decline by around 10% compared to 2019 levels—the first significant decline forecast by the UN.
The projection is based on an “NDC Synthesis Report” released by the UNFCCC which analyzes detailed emission-reduction plans—Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—submitted by countries under the Paris Climate Agreement.
The UN agency’s analysis is based on NDCs released by only 64 countries, which account for around a third of all global emissions, before a September 30 deadline.
Citing the report, the UN’s Climate Change Executive Secretary, Simon Stiell, said even though he cautions against “drawing global conclusions from this report,” it still “contains some green shoots of good news” that countries are making progress towards cutting emissions.
While noting the 10% reduction over the next decade, Stiell said: “ humanity is now clearly bending the emissions curve downwards for the first time, although still not nearly fast enough.”
The report notes that while the emission curve appears to be shifting downward, the forecast still “falls short” of the 60% reduction needed over the next decade to prevent global temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels.
Why Is The 1.5 Degrees Celsius Threshold Significant?
The signatories of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement set 1.5 degrees Celsius as the preferred limit for the increase in global temperatures above pre-industrial numbers, with 2 degrees Celsius being the upper limit. Scientists have warned that global temperatures rising above the 1.5 degrees Celsius benchmark could trigger more severe climate impacts.
What Is Bill Gates Saying About Climate Change?
Billionaire and philanthropist Bill Gates published a blog post early on Tuesday, urging countries to pursue a new approach to addressing climate change. Gates’ blog argues that climate action should shift its focus from rising temperatures to improving people’s health. The billionaire’s blog, titled “Three tough truths about climate,” addresses the leaders attending the UN’s COP30 climate change summit in Brazil next month. In the post, Gates claims, “Climate change is serious, but not the end of civilization,” arguing that clean energy innovations are significantly lowering future emissions projections. Gates says that his climate-focussed funding venture Breakthrough Energy is focusing investment in areas that have a “large positive Green Premiums,”—which he describes as the “cost difference between clean and dirty” technologies. Gates’ post also argues, “Temperature is not the best way to measure our progress on climate,” and claims sometimes “human welfare takes a backseat to lowering emissions, with bad consequences.” Gates suggests that leaders should focus more on improving health and economic outcomes, citing a University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab study which shows that projected climate-related deaths will drop by more than 50% when “expected economic growth of low-income countries over the rest of this century” is taken into account. Gates argues: “Since the economic growth that’s projected for poor countries will reduce climate deaths by half, it follows that faster and more expansive growth will reduce deaths by even more.”
