On 1 November 2025, Burnley will host Arsenal at Turf Moor. This match promises to be a test for both teams: the hosts are fighting for survival, while the visitors are battling for a place at the top. Based on current form, statistics and head-to-head records, Londoners are expected to dominate, but with home advantage, Burnley is capable of springing a surprise. Let’s take a closer look.
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Head-to-head history
Arsenal dominate with 16 wins, Burnley have celebrated success only twice, and four games have ended in a draw. The average total number of goals is 2.45 per game, which indicates relatively low productivity. The last five head-to-head matches highlight the Gunners’ advantage: four wins and one draw. For example, in February 2024, Arsenal thrashed their opponents 5-0 away, with Martin Elliott scoring twice, and in November of the same year, they secured a narrow 1-0 home win thanks to a goal from Gabriel Jesus.
Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 10 league games at Burnley: five wins and five draws. This streak began in the 2010s, when the Londoners consistently picked up points in the north of England. The only recent setback was a 0-0 draw in 2020, but since then Arsenal have scored 12 goals in four games. These statistics confirm the psychological superiority of the visitors, but Burnley have beaten them twice in the 1960s, reminding us of their potential for upsets.
Burnley’s form and recent matches
Burnley returned to the Premier League after a triumphant season in the Championship, where they scored 101 points and set a record for clean sheets – 12 matches without conceding a goal. However, they have had a difficult start in the top flight: after eight rounds, the team is in 17th place with 7 points (2 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses). Their home form is average: two wins, one draw and one loss, with an average total of 2.5 goals.
Details of the key matches of the season. The first game was an away match against Manchester City (0-3, 16 August). Burnley held on until half-time, but succumbed to the pressure in the second half: goals from Haaland, Foden and De Bruyne broke down the defence. Then came a home triumph over Leeds (2-1, 23 August): Jadon Anthony opened the scoring in the 15th minute with a shot from 20 metres, Maxwell Cornet equalised in the 42nd minute, but in added time, Oscar Brownhill snatched the victory with a long-range shot. The third match was against Tottenham (1-2, 30 August). Ramsey’s goal in the 28th minute gave hope, but Son Heung-min and Richarlison turned the game around.
The fourth round against Bournemouth (0-0, 14 September) showed progress in defence: Trafford made six saves, but the attack was silent. Defeat to Nottingham Forest (1-2, 21 September): Anthony scored in the 55th minute, but a double strike from Gibbs-White and Wood cost them points. The sixth match was an away game against Newcastle (0-1, 28 September), where Wilson’s goal in the 72nd minute decided the outcome. The seventh victory was against Wolverhampton (2-0, 5 October): Esteva scored twice from corners. The last match before the break was a draw with Brentford (1-1, 19 October), where Foster equalised in the 80th minute after Mbeumo’s goal.
Overall, Burnley scores 1.13 goals per game and concedes 1.88. The top scorer is Anthony with four goals. Injuries are taking their toll: Foster is doubtful with a hip injury, while Amdouni and Beyer are out until January with cruciate ligament injuries. Parker is building a pragmatic team, but poor conversion (xG 0.88) is holding them back.
Arsenal’s form and recent matches
Arsenal are having an ambitious season, fighting for the title and the Champions League. After eight matches, they are in the lead with 19 points (6 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat). Their attack is powerful: 20 goals scored, defence – 6 conceded. Their away form is impressive: 13 wins in their last 15 away games.
Let’s take a closer look at their matches. The season opener saw them thrash Wolverhampton (4-0 on 17 August) with Saka and Jesus scoring twice. Then Brighton (2-1, 24 August): Martinelli in the 12th minute, Havertz in the 45th, and Vella’s reply in the 68th. The third victory was over Nottingham Forest (3-0, 31 August): Saka scored a hat-trick. Fourth round – Liverpool (2:2, 14 September): goals from Jesus and Rice, Salah and Diogo Jota for the opponents.
The fifth game was a triumph over Manchester United (3:1, 21 September): Zubimendi twice, Martinelli. Sixth defeat to Manchester City (1-2, 28 September): Saka scored, but Haaland and Foden decided the game. Seventh victory over Leeds (5-0, 5 October) at home: Gokeres scored three times, Saka and Timber added one each. Eighth match – Fulham (2-0, 19 October): goals from Rice and Eze.
Arteta’s team scores 2.5 goals on average, with an xG of 2.2. Leaders: Gokeres (3 goals), Saka (2). Injuries are a concern: captain Odegaard is out for weeks with a knee MCL injury, Havertz and Madueke are out until November, Hincapie is doubtful with a groin injury, and Jesus is recovering from ACL surgery. Despite this, the depth of the squad (Zubimendi, Eze) allows them to hold their own.
Key factors
At Turf Moor (21,000 spectators), Burnley are strong on the counterattack, but Arsenal lead in possession (62%) and shots (15 per game). The visitors are strong at set pieces: 11 goals from corners. The weather in November – rain and wind – could slow the pace, favouring the hosts. Motivation: Arsenal are aiming for the top spot, Burnley are aiming for their first home points against a top club.
Considering form, H2H and personnel, Arsenal are the clear favourites. I expect a confident 0-2 win for the visitors: goals from Saki and Zubimendi in the second half. Burnley will create chances, but Trafford won’t save them. The match will end with a total of less than 3.5 goals, highlighting the class of the Londoners.
