China has halted its purchases of soybeans from the United States in recent months, a move seen as a calculated effort to pressure the Trump administration amid intensifying trade tensions.
Beijing’s suspension marks a sharp decline in the US-China agricultural trade relationships and has rattled the heart of America’s farming community. The freeze comes as both sides prepare for a potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month. As of now, the Trump-Xi meeting plans have not been finalized.
“The soybean farmers of our country are being hurt because China is, for ‘negotiating’ reasons only, not buying,” Trump said in a social media post on October 1. “We’ve made so much money on tariffs that we are going to take a small portion of that and help our farmers.”
For decades, the soybean trade has been a cornerstone of Sino-US agricultural cooperation. As part of its 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization, China removed import quotas and imposed a uniform 3% tariff, resulting in a surge in US soybean imports.
In 2017, China imported 32.58 million tons of US soybeans, but the volume fell to 16.64 million tons in 2018 due to the Trump administration’s trade war, according to China Customs. Imports later stabilized at around 20 million tons per year until the 2022 pandemic disrupted supplies and pushed China to diversify its sourcing to Brazil and Argentina.
Last year, the US shipped 985 million bushels of soybeans to China, accounting for 51% of the country’s total soybean exports. By contrast, from January to August 2025, exports of US soybeans to China fell to just 218 million bushels with no deliveries recorded in June, July and August.
Brazil, the world’s largest producer, is expected to harvest 169 million metric tons in the 2024/25 crop year, accounting for approximately 40% of global output. The US crop of 119 million tonnes accounts for 28%, meaning the two countries together supply 68% of the world’s soybeans.
A columnist writing under the pseudonym “Old Farmer” for Guancha.cn offered a stark critique of the trade standoff.
“American soybean farmers have become the sacrificial victims of their own domestic political struggle,” he writes. “The so-called tariff war carries limited economic meaning but endless political significance, reflecting the deep ideological rift dividing the US.”
“From a pragmatic perspective, the US should be the last country to turn inward as it has long benefited from its ability to issue currency and import affordable goods from around the world. These imports sustain its welfare system, ease social tensions and disguise the fragmented nature of its politics.”
He says that as multinational companies that benefited from the globalization trend failed to improve the US people’s livelihood, it’s normal that US society has become extremely divided.
However, the writer notes that the loss of soybean farmers will hardly shake Trump’s core support, as it is merely a necessary cost of pursuing the “Make America Great Again (MAGA)” dream.
“Soybean farmers are mainly concentrated in states like Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota, which are all strongholds of Trump’s MAGA movement,” says Wang Chong, director of the Center for American Studies at Zhejiang International Studies University.
“There’s no doubt that China’s halt of soybean imports has deeply affected the livelihoods of these farmers,” he says. “Many growers and distributors have already expressed strong dissatisfaction with the White House.”
He says China can use soybean imports as a bargaining chip in its trade talks with the US, seeking concessions such as easing restrictions on chip export controls or opening the US market to Chinese electric vehicles and other high-tech goods.
US-China trade standoff
On April 2, Trump announced a sweeping plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on all countries, warning that any nation retaliating against the US would face even heavier duties. As tensions intensified, Washington levied tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports, prompting Beijing to respond with its own 125% tariffs on American goods.
Although both sides agreed on May 12 to ease the confrontation, Chinese goods continue to face tariffs ranging from 30% to 50% in the US, while US exporters only have to pay a 10% tariff to ship their goods to China. Both sides then focused on other trade issues, such as rare earths and semiconductors.
The current trade truce is set to expire on November 10 if negotiations between the two sides fail to progress. Meanwhile, Beijing has ordered its importers not to purchase any soybeans from the US since May.
“Tariff war and trade war serve no one’s interest. The two sides need to address relevant issues through consultation based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said in a regular media briefing on September 23.”
“If the US wants China to resume soybean purchases, the only way is to return to the negotiating table,” says a Zhejiang-based columnist writing under the pen name Linglingniang. “That must be based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit.”
“Remove all those messy tariffs and restrictions first, let bilateral trade return to normal, and only then can we talk about soybeans again,” he says. “Trump is running out of time. China’s purchase orders have already been scheduled through November. If he delays any longer, the American harvest season will end, and those mountains of soybeans could be left to rot in storage.”
In the Northern Hemisphere, planting typically occurs from May to July, with harvesting taking place from September to November.
According to guidance from Iowa State University, soybeans can be stored safely for up to one year if their moisture content is maintained at 13% or lower, and for more extended periods at 12% or lower.
Some observers say soybeans’ long shelf life may help mitigate the immediate impact of China’s import freeze. With proper storage, US farmers can hold their crops for years without significant losses, selling to other markets when opportunities arise while also benefiting from federal subsidy programs.
Bailout package
In response to mounting pressure from rural constituencies, the Trump administration is reportedly preparing a $10 billion bailout package to support farmers who have been hit hardest by China’s soybean import halt.
The plan will draw from tariff revenues and the US Department of Agriculture’s funds to offset losses in export markets.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the media that it’s unfortunate the Chinese leadership has decided to use the American soybean farmers as a hostage or pawn in the trade negotiations.
The halt in China’s purchases of US soybeans has hurt the United States’ total exports to China, which fell 16.8% in the three months between June and August 2025 from the same period last year. The figure decreased only by 7.4% year-over-year in the first five months of this year.
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Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3
