Depending upon who you read over your coffee and cornflakes this morning, you may have learned that China’s Xi Jinping has made a “landmark pledge” to shrink its prodigious carbon footprint, while tacitly rebuking Donald Trump for his rambling speech to the UN General Assembly.
A promise to cut emissions by 7-10% from their peak was indeed a landmark pledge, in the sense that the country responsible for a third of global CO2 pollution has never before committed to cutting it by so much as a puff. But when you parse the Paramount Leader’s video message to world leaders, any vestige of optimism begins to melt away.
Let’s leave aside the question of which “peak” Mr Xi had in mind – some estimates suggest Chinese greenhouse gas pollution may have plateaued last year, but his carefully worded statement leaves room for another peak yet.
Firstly, some logic. A commitment to a 7-10% cut “while striving to do better” is a commitment to a 7% cut. That is all.
And let’s not forget it’s a “net” cut, meaning the parallel pledge to “scale up the total forest stock volume to 24 billion cubic metres” will subtract the presumed amount of CO2 locked away in wood.
Beijing claimed earlier this year that its wood stock is already over 20 billion tonnes and rising. The maths is ferociously complicated but let’s assume for argument’s sake – as some reputable scientists do – that a cubic metre of wood contains a tonne of CO2. That’s up to 4 billion tonnes of CO2 written off over the coming decade – a sizeable chunk of China’s 15.8 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions last year.
What else does Beijing promise? “Expand the installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 6 times the 2020 levels, striving to bring the total to 3,600 gigawatts.”
There’s that weasel word “striving” again. Signatories to the Paris Agreement said they would strive to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels (specifically, the climate during the latter half of the nineteenth century). That is now considered politically impossible.
But we risk getting tied up in data. The nationally determined contribution (NDC) may not have been the most significant part of Xi’s intervention, if you read between the lines: “In the course of global green transition, fairness and equity should be upheld and the right to development of developing countries fully respected.”
It might surprise many to learn that China – while asserting itself as a major geopolitical force and very close to tying with the EU as the world’s second-largest economy – claims to be a “developing country” in the context of global climate talks, allying itself with the likes of Kiribati, Somalia and Zimbabwe.
In other words, it is the wealthy West that should pay for having had their industrial revolutions earlier. Beijing’s intransigence on this point was a major bone of contention at the COP29 summit in Azerbaijan last year.
Then comes the kicker: “It is important that countries strengthen international coordination in green technologies and industries to address the shortfall in green production capacity and ensure free flow of quality green products globally so that the benefits of green development can reach all corners of the world.”
China has invested a tremendous amount of political and actual capital in turning itself into the global workshop for green tech production. Trump is not only tossing tariffs around: He’s declared climate action a “con job” and is doing his best to shut down wind and solar development, both at home and abroad.
Meanwhile Brussels is actively pursuing a “buy European” policy. Beijing probably has reason to be concerned about its export market.
The EU’s climate chief Wopke Hoekstra – a leading critic of China’s ‘developing country’ pretensions in Baku – has already said Beijing must try harder. The Amazonian port city of Belém will host the thirtieth edition of the UN’s annual climate junket, COP30, in just seven weeks.
Global emissions are still rising, with climate breakdown manifesting itself in ever more dramatic and lethal ways. As Hoekstra said, things are going to get worse before they get any better. Harmony is in short supply, however alluring the language may be.
Roundup
Taxing fatty foods to promote health – Similar to tobacco taxes, a levy on products high in fat, sugar and salt has been proposed. “It’s not about limiting the availability of products that people want to buy. We can influence choices and that’s what I think we should be doing,” said a Commission source.
China climate ambitions ‘disappointing’, says EU climate chief – Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra plans to push Beijing to go beyond its pledge – unveiled by President Xi Jinping on Wednesday – to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10% from peak levels by 2035, a target far below what NGOs and analysts hoped for.
MEPs fight over the big bucks – The proposed €2 trillion budget for 2028-2034 spans all policy areas, but a dozen parliamentary committees want control over a handful of large files that are central to the €2 trillion financial blueprint.
Across Europe
Shoot first, ask later – Poland wants to amend its military laws to allow its forces to shoot down Russian objects over Ukraine without NATO or EU permission. It has previously criticised the current law requiring permission, saying it stripped Warsaw of the right to act independently against drones crossing from Ukraine or Belarus.
Sánchez confirms reelection ambitions – The Spanish PM framed re-election as the only way forward as corruption allegations put him under pressure, with cases against his brother and wife ongoing.
Farmers pay the price in Greek subsidy scandal – As Greece reels from a scandal over EU farm subsidy fraud, ordinary farmers fear they will end up footing the bill for a flawed system. Meanwhile, who will be held culpable is unclear: “A few may have made millions through fake leases, while others faced minor paperwork issues – but all are labelled the same,” sighed one farmer.
