The announcement, made at the United Nations General Assembly in New York, marks the major emitter’s shift from setting intensity-based climate goals to an absolute emissions target.
As part of the updated plan, the country’s non-fossil energy consumption will account for more than 30 per cent of its total energy consumption, Xi added.
Speaking in Chinese via video link to the high-level climate summit, Xi described the new goals as “China’s best efforts” under the Paris Agreement, reiterating that progress will depend on a “favourable and open international environment”.
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China’s 2035 targets simply aren’t representative of the pace of the energy transition in the country.
Bernice Lee, distinguished fellow and senior advisor, Chatham House
Seemingly taking a veiled swipe at United States President Donald Trump, who on Tuesday told the same crowd at the UN summit that climate change is the “greatest con job”, Xi emphasised that the global green and low-carbon transition should be seen as “a defining trend of our era”
He said: “Although a few countries are moving against the tide, the international community should maintain unwavering confidence and stay on the right course. We should continue taking action and sustain the momentum [on climate action].”
As the world’s largest emitter, China’s actions will have an outsized impact. The updated NDC comes ahead of the COP30 summit in Brazil and amid rising pressure on all major economies to scale up their climate ambition.
The United Nations has warned that existing pledges leave the world on track to warm by around 2.5°C to 2.9°C – far above the goals of the Paris Agreement.
While Xi’s announcement of China’s latest targets adds a long-term milestone to the country’s climate roadmap, the magnitude of the promised reductions has drawn mixed reactions. Some observers say the Chinese leadership played it safe by setting modest targets that do not fully reflect the country’s potential, even as Xi, in his speech, left room for exceeding the targets by saying that China will “strive to do better” than the emissions-reduction target set.
Analysts at Washington-based nonprofit Asia Society, Kate Logan and Li Shuo, noted that China’s economy has been cooling since the Covid-19 pandemic and severe power shortages in 2021 and 2022 have reinforced the country’s continued coal buildout.
Globally, the return of Trump and his climate policy rollbacks, a rightward shift in European politics, and major geopolitical events such as the Russia-Ukraine war have created a less encouraging global environment for ambitious climate commitments. China’s latest targets “reflect constrained ambition”, they said. Both are directors of the think tank’s China Climate Hub.
“China has opted for promising no more than it is confident it can deliver. Unfortunately, [the targets] are not ambitious enough to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals or galvanise the international community to accelerate climate progress.”
Lauri Myllvirta of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) agrees that the subdued pledges reflect China’s concerns, but said it “undersells China’s current clean energy boom”. The targets should be seen as “setting a floor, not a ceiling” for China’s ambition.
In his speech, Xi also pledged that China will strive for its total installed capacity of wind and solar power generation to reach 3.6 billion kilowatts by 2035, more than six times the 2020 level. But Myllvirta noted that this target would mean a “sharp slowdown of recent trends”, with only less than 200 gigawatts (GW) of solar and wind added per year, in comparison to the 360 GW added in 2024.
“The target is likely to be exceeded dramatically,” he said. “My reading is that this is a set of targets prepared by a conservative bureaucracy that Xi did not choose to override this time.”
Benchmarking China’s targets
In the announcement, Xi did not specify a baseline year for the planned reduction but tied it to undefined peak levels, which many analysts say could have already been crossed in 2024, according to emissions data drawn from official and commercial sources. China has so far not formally declared that its total greenhouse gas emissions have peaked; its official policy states that the goal is to achieve peak emissions by 2030.
Other pledges in China’s 2035 NDCs:
-Forest stock volume will exceed 24 billion cubic metres.
-New energy vehicles will become the mainstream among new vehicle sales.
-The national carbon emissions trading market will cover major high-emission industries.
-A climate-resilient society will be established.
Prior analysis by Asia Society’s China Climate Hub showed that from a scientific perspective, to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming threshold, China would need to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 30 per cent from peak levels by 2035; to stay within a 2°C limit, a cut of at least 20 per cent would be necessary.
The analysis also benchmarked China’s targets by comparing its expected post-peak emissions trajectory with that of other major emitters. It stated that the US peaked its energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in 2007 and had then reduced them by approximately 14.7 per cent by 2017, a decade after peaking.
Bernice Lee, distinguished fellow and senior advisor of global think tank Chatham House said that China could have “missed a trick in landing a more ambitious goal” as it would have won broad global praise. “China’s 2035 targets simply aren’t representative of the pace of the energy transition in the country.”
“But there are UN targets and there is reality,” she added. “The reality is the country invested US$625 billion in clean energy last year – 31 per cent of the global total. Its clean energy surge is reshaping the global economy…My bet is other countries will read the writing on the wall and recognise China as fully committed and be reassured as they seek to shift [away] from fossil fuels.”
