China now leads the world in nearly 90% of the “critical technologies” that can significantly boost or endanger national interests, according to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s latest Critical Technology Tracker report.
In ASPI’s five-year window covering 2020–24, China ranked first in 66 of 74 technologies, including national-power staples such as nuclear energy, synthetic biology and small satellites. The United States led in the remaining eight areas, including quantum computing and geoengineering, the report shows.
Published on December 1, ASPI’s report also highlights concentrated risk in several newly added fields where China holds a clear lead, including cloud and edge computing, computer vision (an artificial intelligence field that enables computers to see, interpret and understand images and video), generative AI and grid integration technologies, some of which are rated as carrying a high “technology monopoly risk.”
On the same day, the ASPI published another report titled “How China’s new AI systems are reshaping human rights,” accusing the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) of using large language models (LLMs) and other AI systems to automate censorship, enhance surveillance and pre-emptively suppress dissent.
“China’s extensive AI-powered visual surveillance systems are already well documented,” said the report. “Those practices directly implicate the right to freedom of expression and the right to seek, receive and impart information, including access to accurate contextual information rather than only the absence of prohibited content.”
“Chinese models such as Baidu’s Ernie Bot, Alibaba’s Qwen, Zhipu AI’s GLM and DeepSeek’s VL2 are capable of analysing both text and images. When tested on photographs of events such as the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, the Hong Kong 2019 protests and rallies supporting Uyghurs and Tibetans, those models frequently refused to respond, omitted sensitive details or restated official narratives.”
The report said such patterns reflect state regulations requiring AI systems to conform to “core socialist values” and to avoid outputs that “harm the national image.” The study said that the CCP expanded advanced AI use most rapidly between 2023 and 2025 in four areas:
- AI-driven censorship of politically sensitive images
- Integration of AI into policing and the criminal justice system
- Industrial-scale control and management of online information
- Overseas deployment of AI-enabled platforms by Chinese companies
Taken together, the report said these trends show AI being embedded across domains to strengthen Beijing’s ability to shape information, behavior and economic outcomes at home and abroad.
The release of ASPI’s Critical Technology Tracker and its analysis of China’s AI development was soon followed by the Australian government’s December 2 announcement of its National AI Plan, which emphasised security, risk management and resilience as AI capabilities advance.
“The Department of Home Affairs, the National Intelligence Community and law enforcement agencies will continue efforts to mitigate the most serious risks posed by AI proactively,” the National AI Plan said.
“Australia welcomes global investment to support local capability to build resilience in our AI, data infrastructure and energy sectors, while some investments may be subject to Australia’s foreign investment framework to ensure they are not contrary to the national interest and national security,” it added.
Anti-China narratives
It is not the first time ASPI has highlighted China’s rapid technological rise.
In 2023, the institute said China led 37 of 44 key technologies, including hypersonic missiles, AI, drones and electric batteries. It also ranked China first in defense- and space-related research and said the country was strong in areas such as advanced materials, 5G and 6G, clean energy technologies and synthetic biology.
Last year’s tracker showed China leading in 57 of 64 technologies during 2019–2023, compared with just three during 2003–2007. The ASPI said there was a high risk of Beijing securing a monopoly on defense-related tech, including drones, satellites and collaborative robots, which can work alongside humans.
In recent years, Chinese media and commentators have repeatedly accused ASPI of deliberately promoting a “China threat” narrative, saying the Critical Technology Tracker was designed to cast China in a hostile light.
“ASPI is a notorious anti-China think tank that has long been keen on promoting anti-China narratives,” Zhang Jingjuan, a columnist at Guancha.cn, says in an article. “By hyping China’s lead across most advanced technologies, it is pushing the US, the United Kingdom and Australia to deepen security cooperation with Japan and South Korea to counter so-called technology monopoly risks.”
She says ASPI’s report focuses on technologies with military applications, claiming China ranks first in areas such as radar, satellite navigation and drones, and uses these claims to justify more substantial security alignment under frameworks such as AUKUS.
“What Australia is doing toward China is a manufactured scare campaign, and it is ASPI that has orchestrated it. Through a series of reports, ASPI insists on portraying China as a threat in military, technological and cyber domains, misleading the government into increasing defense spending and adjusting its China policy,” says a Zhejiang-based commentator writing under the pen name “Copper Pea.”
“Public information shows that about 57% of ASPI’s funding comes from defense contractors such as the United States’ Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and the UK’s BAE Systems,” he says.
“These companies are not charities. They fund ASPI so that its reports and policy advice align with their interests. In simple terms, ASPI functions more like a mouthpiece for weapon sellers and government agendas than a neutral research institution.”
He said Australia faces a dilemma, with economic dependence on China alongside security reliance on the US, but portraying China as a threat is unfair.
Japan-Australia defense cooperation
ASPI’s warning about China’s growing AI strength landed at a sensitive strategic moment, coming days before Washington released its National Strategy Report on December 4. That document called on the Quad (the United States, Japan, India and Australia) to deepen coordination to counter what it described as mounting threats from China.
On December 8, ASPI published a separate report titled “Japan-Australia defense cooperation in the Pacific: the case for a partial division of labour,” calling for closer coordination between Canberra and Tokyo to protect key sea lines of communication linking the two countries.
The report said Australia and Japan should split responsibilities in the Pacific during a conflict to protect shared sea routes, arguing this would deter China as the US focuses on fighting Beijing. It said Japan would prioritize Micronesia, Australia would focus on Polynesia and the two would share responsibilities in Melanesia, including Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands.
“ASPI’s latest report urges Japan and Australia to charge to the front lines for US interests by turning Pacific island countries into a battleground for competition over so-called strategic supply chains,” says a Jiangsu-based columnist. “This is yet another clear display of ASPI’s role as an anti-China vanguard.”
“Japan and Australia’s response was less about genuine strategic coordination than political theater designed to amplify a China threat, interfere in Pacific island countries’ normal cooperation with China, and ultimately serve US strategic priorities rather than their own,” he says, adding that Japan and Australia’s eventual fate is likely to be nothing more than “cannon fodder.”
Read: US isn’t winning trade war despite drop in its imports from China
Follow Jeff Pao on Twitter at @jeffpao3
